Daniel Sundheim

.@altcap had some insightful takes and some arguably newer disclosures on OAI/Anthropic (he's an investor in both) worth tracking: Anthropic's Revenue Ramp: Brad called this the fastest revenue explosion in technology history. $1B run rate end of 2024, $4B by mid-2025, $9B by end of 2025, then $30B by end of March 2026. He noted they hit their year-end target by Q1. To contextualize the monthly adds, he said Anthropic added the equivalent of Databricks plus Palantir combined in a single month. He wouldn't be shocked if Anthropic exits the year at $80-100B in revenue. "TAM for Intelligence" Thesis: Brad's central argument is that intelligence has a near-infinite TAM, fundamentally different from any prior technology market. He stressed this isn't zero-sum between Anthropic and OpenAI. Millions of self-interested actors (consumers, enterprises, 1,000+ paying $1M+ annually) are all demanding the product simultaneously. Same Jevons paradox argument: unit cost of intelligence is plummeting because model capability is surging, which drives more consumption. Gross Margins and "Accidental Profitability": Brad pushed back hard on the narrative that these companies are bleeding cash. His logic: the biggest cost input is compute, and Anthropic only has ~1.5-2 GW of capacity. That compute cost is relatively fixed whether revenue is $1B or $80B. So gross margins are expanding 'explosively.' He suggested the companies may hit 'accidental profitability' because they literally can't spend revenue fast enough on compute buildout. He also noted Anthropic has only 2,500 people versus Google crossing similar revenue thresholds with 120,000. Inference costs are down 90% year over year. Anthropic's Strategic Focus as Competitive Advantage: Brad credited Anthropic's discipline in saying no. No multimodal, no video, no hardware, no chips, no building data centers. They concentrated entirely on coding and co-work as the path to AGI/ASI, executed with 2,500 people all pulling in the same direction. That focus, combined with the coding lead, is what let them come from being "counted out" a year ago to now dominating that market OpenAI Feelin Shor-term Pain but Still Optimistic: Brad said he's a buyer of OpenAI shares today despite the negative vibes (employees leaving, strategy questions, secondary market trading below last valuation). He called it "peak OpenAI FUD." His case: it starts with great researchers and models. The upcoming Spud model (first Blackwell-trained model) is being previewed and people are telling him it's on par with Mythos. Gross vs. Net Revenue Distraction: Brad dismissed the gross vs. net revenue debate (Anthropic reportedly presents gross, OpenAI net). He said the hyperscaler distribution commissions are single-digit percentages of total revenue. Whether you haircut Anthropic by 5-10% or gross up OpenAI, the comparison is roughly apples-to-apples and it's a distraction from the real story.

Bill Maher fires back at Billie Eilish and leftist “kids” who “don’t know what the f*ck” America is about. “I want to… say something about Western civilization. Kids, you don’t know what the f*ck it is.” “They think Western means white—and white means bad. First of all, everything bad that white people did, people of color did it, too. The Japanese before World War II and during World War II. And Genghis Khan, and I could go on and on.” “The left is very down on America, very down on the West. And it’s ironic because the West has also given us everything that makes your life good here. Don’t ask Billie Eilish or Chappell Roan about what the Western values are, because they’ll just say it’s about oppression.” “But it’s not about oppression. It’s about rule of law. It’s about respect for minorities. It’s about democracy. It’s about scientific inquiry. These are all good things that came from the Western world. I wish that schools would teach that again.”

@elonmusk I took down more Guinness in half the time :)

Guinness with John & Dwarkesh 🍺

Miamiposting might be a phenomenon whose time has passed, but having just spent a few days visiting, it really does feel like a boomtown in a way that no other American city that I've spent time in over the past few years does. In some ways, it reminds me of Chinese cities.

@TheChiefNerd So bad. So so bad.

🚨 NEW: Zohran Mamdani Appoints Lillian Bonsignore as New FDNY Commissioner “Although she never served as a firefighter, she's confident that won't matter … Bonsignore is a trailblazer for the LGBTQ community who will serve as the FDNY's first openly gay commissioner.”

The best way I know to become a generalist is being a serial specialist. I know 9-10 sectors very well and I learned them one by one. Stack knowledge. Hire people to cover the things you know best and learn something new yourself. Generalists are usually value investors. Their domain expertise is in their value discipline not their subject matter expertise. There is always a domain even if you don’t think so or don’t want to pin your investing identity to something.

We have some news

@pmje73 Thanks Paul. We had an amazing team. So many talented people at Viking during that time. It is an honor to get that compliment from someone I respect so much.

What makes @dsundheim great is on full display in this pod - precision of thought and economy of word across multiple domains. Simple, but hardly easy. open.spotify.com/episode/3Aba2v…

ramp.com/blog/ramp-june… Congrats to @karimatiyeh, @ericglyman, and the Ramp team.

The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust. President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good. And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country. But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital. The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country. If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate. What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large, long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war? I don’t know of one who will do so. When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers. And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system. Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for. The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system. Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down. May cooler heads prevail.

@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump 💯

One would have to imagine that President @realDonaldTrump’s phone has been ringing off the hook. The practical reality is that there is insufficient time for him to make deals before the tariffs are scheduled to take effect. I would therefore not be surprised to wake up Monday with an announcement from the President that he was postponing the implementation of the tariffs to give him time to make deals. President Trump has gotten the world’s and our trading partners’ attention and elevated the importance of resolving an unfair tariff regime that has harmed American workers and decimated our industrial base over many decades. This is a critically important issue that needs to be resolved, and we finally have a president committed to getting this done. The problem, however, can’t be resolved in days, so why wouldn’t a pause make sense to give the president time to properly resolve this critical issue and to allow companies large and small the time to prepare for changes in their supply chains? The risk of not doing so is that the massive increase in uncertainty drives the economy into a recession, potentially a severe one. One thing is for sure. Monday will be one of the more interesting days in our country’s economic history.

From seed to Super Bowl in under 5 years from launch. @karimatiyeh and @eglyman have built an amazing company. World class leaders and people. Excited to have @saquon join as an investor. Congrats @tryramp x.com/tryramp/status… [x.com]

Mechazilla has caught the Super Heavy booster!

@MarcAtiyeh Congrats @MarcAtiyeh. Very happy for you.

🚨ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨Today, I can officially announce that Pawp will become a permanent benefit of Walmart+. That means Walmart will make Pawp available for free to all Walmart+ members and their pets.

@eglyman @karimatiyeh Grateful and 🔥🔥🔥 so happy for you

@dsundheim @karimatiyeh Thank you @dsundheim — Ramp would not be what it is today without your help, mentorship and guidance. We feel lucky to call you and the full D1 Capital family our partners and friends — excited for the next 5 years and more together!

Congrats to the Ramp team on their five year anniversary. @eglyman and @karimatiyeh have killed it - Ramp is one of the fastest growing startups in recent history with the best engineering team. Thanks for bringing us along for the ride. 🙏🏼🙏🏼

A sign of wisdom is thinking in probabilities rather than certainties. Naïve people are arrogant. They claim to know what will definitely happen, and believe they're always right. Wise people are humble. They explore what might happen, and admit they're often wrong.

@StopAntisemites Amen

UPenn - JUST when you think things cannot possibly get even worse here, Anne Norton, distinguished Professor of Political Science: - liked a post that stated "Playing the victim is what Jews are best at" - shared a post calling the brutal rape of Jewish woman "alleged" - commented how good the Hamas hostages had it President Liz Magill must resign. And Anne Norton must go with her.