Natalia Forrat

On the different scenarios of how the war in Ukraine may develop. Includes an analysis of Russia's capacity to continue the war. The most realistic scenario - a prolonged conflict of low intensity. csis.org/analysis/russi…

The TLDR version of the talk: cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/unity-div…

For those who did not make it to my book talk on April 1st, I will be doing it again tomorrow @StanfordCDDRL @ noon Pacific Time. Stanford people - see you in person; everyone else can join via Zoom. cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/events/social-…

Elon Musk reportedly spent $40M on #Superbowl ads calling #USAID wasteful. Here’s how USAID would’ve spent that $$: 🏈Shipped the 29K tons of American food on American ships instead of letting it rot in a Texas warehouse. youtu.be/PqUESHfuO_8 Tell Congress to #saveforeignaid

Elon Musk reportedly spent $40M on #Superbowl ads calling #USAID wasteful. Here’s how USAID would’ve spent that $$: 🏈Slowed the flow of migrants to our borders by providing job training to 50K people in Central America youtu.be/PqUESHfuO_8 #saveforeignaid #standwithUSAID

Musk reportedly spent $40M on #Superbowl ads calling #USAID wasteful. Here’s how USAID would’ve spent that $$: 🏈Protected 30M football fields of tropical forest in Africa to stop China from exploiting the minerals that fuel our world youtu.be/PqUESHfuO_8 #saveforeignaid

Elon Musk reportedly spent $40M on #Superbowl ads calling #USAID wasteful. Here’s how USAID would’ve spent that $$: 🏈Bought 29K tons of produce and vegetable oil from American farmers to feed people, reducing mass migration youtu.be/PqUESHfuO_8 #saveforeignaid

Musk reportedly spent $40M on #Superbowl ads calling #USAID wasteful. Here’s how USAID would’ve spent that $$: 🏈Purchased HIV treatment from U.S. pharma companies to keep 1M pp alive for 1 year. Tell Congress to youtu.be/PqUESHfuO_8 #saveforeignaid and #standwithusaid

I sense a bit of triumphalism about assessing the state of the Russian economy recently. So I believe a short Q&A, easily accessible to readers, is warranted. Is the Russian economy in crisis? Yes. Is the crisis passing or structural? It's structural and it won't get better until the war economy is dismantled and sanctions lifted. What is the nature of the crisis in question? Russia has entered the period of cessation of growth, coupled with rising inflation, lack of foreign investment, labor shortages and rising private/corporate debt. Parts of the private sector may collapse under pressure. Will this crisis stop the war effort? In the medium-term, no. The war would probably be over before the economic crisis stops it. Who will the crisis hurt the most, the state or the people? Primarily the people and social services provided by the state. Russia will not cut military expenditure, it will cut social expenditure instead. Won't this crisis and cutting social services expenditure cause dissent among the population? It should, yes. But dissatisfaction doesn't translate directly into action, meaning protests or organized resistance. There is no organized resistance in Russia on a national level. Certain social protests on a local level will be possible. Not enough to destabilize the regime. With a caveat that nobody can predict black swan events, which may change the equation. If the economic crisis won't stop the war and won't cause a popular uprising, is it unimportant? No. The crisis will shape the social and political landscape in Russia strategically. Meaning it's impacts will be seen in the future and the future political class will have to take these into account. In short-term, we will continue to observe negative indicators, the rising hardship of the private sector, take screenshots of the weakened ruble, but the war will continue as it did.

@zoumarin In a way - yes, but limited political philosophy here.

@forrat Congratulation. A sequel to Arendt's book on the same topic?

I will probably never run a real marathon. But I just finished my academic marathon: I published a book :) global.oup.com/academic/produ… Keep reading if you are interested in authoritarianism and/or Russia. Link to a free chapter at the end of the thread.

Here is the link to a free chapter (free to read until Dec. 9, 2024): academic.oup.com/book/58664/cha…

- The state as the driver of informality. - The idea that the conflict between the ideal of a just state and the reality of a repressive state explain a range of political behavior in Russia, including the denial of state repression.