Houman Asefi

What if a think tank had only one human… and the rest were AI agents? I’m testing this with the "Institute for AI Economics". Instead of a traditional research institute: • One human sets the thesis • AI agents track signals across labs, policy, and markets • Other agents synthesize research and draft memos • Output becomes briefings on the AI power structure The question: Can one operator + agents produce the research output of a small think tank? If AI changes how knowledge institutions work… it may also change who understands the AI economy first. That’s what I’m studying.

@kajakallas The “Energy War Flywheel” Step 1 - Strike Infrastructure: LNG, pipelines, chokepoints Step 2 - Supply Shock: global shortages + halted flows Step 3 - Price Spike: oil + gas surge globally Step 4 - Power Shift: exporters gain, importers weaken

Iran's attacks on Qatar’s energy infrastructure are deepening the chaos. The war in the Middle East needs an exit, not an escalation. This is equally important for Ukraine, as Russia stands to gain from the Iran war. Now is the time to step up support for Ukraine, including by moving forward with the loan agreed by leaders already in December. My doorstep ahead of today’s #EUCO ↓

The “War Profit vs Power Shift” Model Layer 1 - Visible Winners: contractors, investors, reconstruction plays Layer 2 - Financial Flows: oil prices, capital movement, sanctions impact Layer 3 - Strategic Gains: weakened rivals, distracted adversaries, new leverage Layer 4 - System Rewiring: long-term control of regions, alliances, infrastructure

Winners of the Iran War: 1. Eric & Don Jr.'s drone company investments 2. Jared Kushner's plans to reconstruct the Gulf 3. Witkoffs' Middle East real estate deals The corruption here runs deep and goes in a circle. More in my latest newsletter, Follow The Money: bit.ly/FollowTheMoney…

@pmddomingos This is the wrong frame. It’s incentives vs outcomes.

Scientists, journalists, judges: their job is to seek the truth, but they keep failing. Salesmen, lawyers, politicians: their job is to lie, and they keep succeeding.

@fidjissimo Almost no one has the discipline to kill "distraction"

Companies go through phases of exploration and phases of refocus; both are critical. But when new bets start to work, like we're seeing now with Codex, it's very important to double down on them and avoid distractions. Really glad we're seizing this moment.

@rohanpaul_ai You’re gonna thank me for this one: Software was phase one. Owning production is phase two.

WSJ, Reuters: Jeff Bezos is reportedly raising $100B to buy manufacturing companies and overhaul them using AI. The plan involves acquiring firms in industries like chipmaking and defense to speed up production with smart automation. Instead of using AI just for software, this fund wants to put it to work on physical assembly lines. This project is intended to act as a tool for changing the way the world builds complex hardware. Bezos has already held meetings with major global investors and wealth funds in the Middle East to gather the cash. This effort is closely linked to a startup called Project Prometheus that specializes in AI for heavy engineering. Project Prometheus managed to raise $6.2B in funding around February-26 to start its work. David Limp from Blue Origin has joined the team to help manage how AI interacts with large scale manufacturing. --- reuters. com/business/retail-consumer/jeff-bezos-aims-raise-100-billion-buy-revamp-manufacturing-firms-with-ai-wsj-2026-03-19/

@JuliaEMcCoy I hate to break it to you but this won’t feel like a revolution.

The AGI revolution won't look like a movie. No explosions. No robots marching down streets. No dramatic moment where "it happens." It'll be quiet. A department that had 40 people now has 12. A company that took 5 years to build gets built in 5 weeks. A skill you spent a decade mastering gets automated on a Tuesday. Nobody will announce it. There won't be a headline. One day you'll just look around and realize everything changed while you were scrolling. The loudest revolutions in history were the ones nobody heard coming. This is that revolution. Wake up.

@KenOno691 interested to see what's the plan to institutionalize axiom

:0)

The “Agent Advantage Stack” Layer 1 - Data Ingestion: scrape, structure, own the dataset Layer 2 - Synthesis: agents compress millions of signals into insight Layer 3 - Positioning: enter conversations with asymmetric knowledge Layer 4 - Compounding Loop: every interaction feeds the next model

Love this new direction for Paradigm. Today's meeting with NVIDIA Inception program went great because of my preparation (er, my AI agents reading 600,000 posts from X in the database it built and writing a report). Will try this next time. Will have that video up shortly. Damn, today is busy. GTC actually sped everything up. @AnnaMonaco is one of the nicest people I've met, too. Niceness does get people places.

@ZelenskyyUa did you thank the USA yet?

The world’s eyes are on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region. The Iranian regime’s constant strikes against its neighbors are significantly destabilizing markets and disrupting critically important energy supply routes. Many around the world are now speaking about the protection of energy facilities, the inadmissibility of energy terror against entire nations, and free and safe navigation. All of this is indeed a global interest. Many of these statements repeat what Ukraine was saying back in 2022 and 2023 about Russia’s naval blockade of our ports and its attempts to deprive us of access to global trade. For years, Russia has been doing to our energy system the same thing the Iranian regime is now doing to infrastructure in its own region. There can be no other motive for such deliberate aggression against energy – whether it is Russian strikes on our power plants and gas production, or the current strikes by the Iranian regime against everyone around it – other than to inflict suffering on entire nations. That is why it is so important that global cooperation, at least now, is able to provide real security responses for everyone, including Europe. Strikes by the remnants of the Iranian regime against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other countries are in essence strikes against global stability and Europe’s energy security. Ukraine is ready to join common security initiatives to stabilize the situation as quickly as possible. Ukraine has long proposed creating realistic and effective instruments to hold accountable those who block maritime trade routes, destroy normal navigation, and target energy infrastructure. Ukraine endured this winter under Russian strikes. The Middle East and the Gulf region are now facing the same evil. Russia and the Iranian regime are not helping each other by chance. They must be stopped, and it is the responsibility of every world leader to ensure real stability and guarantee security. Together, we are undoubtedly stronger.

@Jason You’re joking about it. But this is the core stack: perception → tracking → inference → extraction. also, uncle bernie thinks he found the loop hole in ai

Every time a grandpa asks what AI is, we should send them to a conference room, take out the iPhone tripod setup, attach some motors to the tripod and have it start following them around while asking them where they keep their valuables

@Kasparov63 This is too neat of a story. Money matters...but dependency matters more.

It's always and only about money and doing Putin's bidding. Orban and now Lukashenko, two corrupt autocrats crushing their own countries in Putin's service, and now Trump is joining them.

@elonmusk I hate to break it to you but Open-sourcing the algorithm doesn’t decentralize power. but good to know in advance

Major update to the 𝕏 AI recommendation algorithm rolling out next week. This will be open sourced at the same time.

Layer 1 exists to hide what’s happening in Layer 3.

The “Diplomacy vs Power” Model Layer 1 - Narrative: public messaging (“peace”, “dialogue”) Layer 2 - Alignment: state-to-state coordination signals Layer 3 - Leverage: energy, trade, military positioning Layer 4 - Outcome Control: who shapes post-crisis order Power players operate at Layer 3 and 4.

@narendramodi Why is nobody talking about who actually benefits from “de-escalation”?

Spoke with my dear friend, President Emmanuel Macron, on the situation in West Asia and the urgent need for de-escalation, as well as a return to dialogue and diplomacy. We look forward to continuing our close coordination to advance peace and stability in the region and beyond. @EmmanuelMacron

All four headlines map to one underlying shift: 1. NVIDIA → Compute dominance → AI demand centralizes around a few suppliers → whoever owns chips = controls the ceiling 2. Anduril → Defense + AI convergence → software-defined warfare becomes real → governments = largest AI customers 3. CEO exits (Adobe) → Cycle turnover → incumbents struggle to adapt to AI-native shifts → leadership resets = strategy resets 4. Kalanick narrative → Founder leverage myth → markets romanticize execution + timing → ignores structural forces (capital, regulation, tech timing) Put together: This is stack formation happening live: Infrastructure (NVIDIA) State adoption (Anduril) Incumbent disruption (Adobe) Founder mythology (Uber narrative) The takeaway: AI is reordering of who owns compute, contracts, and control.

@PeterDiamandis You don’t get 3B customers. You get 3B competitors.

You've got 8 billion potential customers on Earth, BUT... In 2026, only ~5.3 billion have internet access. That means 2.7 billion people still can't access the exponential tools we talk about daily—AI, telemedicine, online education, digital banking. The gap: The missing ~3 billion represent the largest untapped market in human history. Starlink alone now has 10,000+ satellites in orbit (just crossed that milestone yesterday). When connectivity becomes ubiquitous in the next 3-4 years, we're not just adding users—we're adding builders, creators, entrepreneurs. The implication: The next Einstein, the next Elon, the next medical breakthrough might be sitting in a village without Wi-Fi right now. Abundance doesn't just mean "more for current participants"—it means unlocking latent genius at global scale.

For a de-escalation path, three things must shift: 1. Incentives → retaliation must become costlier than restraint 2. Constraints → physical limits (e.g. chokepoints, energy exposure) must stabilize 3. Credible enforcement → moratoriums need verification + consequences Without these: Calls for restraint = signaling, not strategy Infrastructure remains a target (high leverage) Each side stays locked in the loop

It is time to open a path towards de-escalation in order to restore stability in the Middle East. France calls for the immediate implementation of a moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, whether related to water or to energy. Freedom and security of navigation must be restored. As the region enters a period of religious celebrations and renewal, tempers must cool and hostilities must cease, in order to give a real chance to the prospect of a negotiated and sustainable solution.

Think in two layers: 1. Core business (the dog) → large, stable, optimized → growth slows over time 2. Emerging variant (the tail) → small, messy, underestimated → growth rate is high If you only track absolute numbers: You overprotect the core You miss the inflection If you track growth rate: You see which variant is accelerating You can reallocate attention early

Another advantage of focusing on growth rate rather than absolute numbers is that it makes it easier to switch to a new variant of the product if you discover one. It makes it easier to see tails that will eventually wag the dog.

@sweatystartup High risk doesn’t mean “don’t join.” It means get paid in upside or get out.