AzumangWX

#wxtwitter i have returned with a gift: crazy #tornado scars in China from this year on recently updated Google Earth imagery coordinates are in alt text

My thoughts on the next week (just off a glance) Thurs- Sat: Mostly hailers/lacking moisture, but each day gets progressively better… Sun: Will there be storms? Anything that develops will look good, all hazards… Mon: Same as Sunday but the ceiling increases and warm sector is bigger… Tues: Has the highest potential of any day, GFS has no idea what it’s doing and is wrong… Wednesday: I have no idea, but if trough slows then watch out…

And this is why deterministic model output sucks. Ensembles are the way to go.

Not really downplaying the severe weather potential in the central US next week, but synoptically this is not a 'historic outbreak' look at all, mainly due to the suppressive upstream trough near Alaska and a deep TPV lobe over the Hudson Bay which shears the jet streak maxima.

When folks start posting UKMet runs for a severe weather event, just know the event itself is cancelled

A potentially historic severe weather outbreak is looming for southern and central China in less than 15 hours. Latest GFS data reveals a textbook "loaded gun" setup across Guizhou and Hunan, featuring extreme parameters including SBCAPE over 3,500 J/kg, 3km EHI values pushing 15, and Significant Tornado Parameters between 7.0 and 9.4. This highly volatile environment is primed for violent, long-track tornadoes and giant hail if discrete supercells form. Even if rapid storm consolidation occurs, the resulting squall line would pose a massive destructive wind and flash flooding threat driven by precipitable water values exceeding two inches. Meteorologists and locals must monitor this incredibly dangerous situation immediately. #ChinaWeather #SevereWeather #Tornado #WXTwitter

lol that’s why we don’t hype things up 8 days ahead of time calling it “the biggest outbreak since 2011”

Horrific cap busts on the 00Z GFS

Boston Blunder

@havamedyaa @igolask

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These are what get you designated as a domestic terrorist under NPSM 7, by the way.

Osaka and Chiyo found something (Commission) #azumangadaioh

You’re just mad that you’re getting bears cage mogged by a broke college student who lives in the northeast

these are the same children that are calling offices during a major outbreak and telling them what they see on radar 🫩

bro is on the look out for favorable storm interactions

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0z HRRR vs the 14z… Large differences here, last nights runs you had a different frontal orientation, and a less pinched warm sector on the Norther side. Pretty clear and obvious downtrend, at least on the HRRR…

It would be meteorological malpractice not to forecast a threat of significant tornadoes with an environment like this later on today around IA/IL/WI. That said, this sounding may not be as favorable today as you'd think, and here's why:

I've deleted this. It appears to be from a crypto scammer. The governor of St Helena just told @horton_official he went outside to check on the tortoise, who was sleeping as it is past his bedtime, but he is very much alive. I'm really sorry.

disgusting aizumanga content, get out of my sight