Jack Larkin

@beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon per deadheat convo, PMs offer an alternate way to understand deadheat payouts. Instead of 1 contract settling at 100%, the settlement amount is 100/n. So in the 5 team dead heat example, settlement is 100/5 (or 20% per contract) minus your position %

@beatingthebook would love 2 mins of sports talk radio of you and @KelleyBydlon greatest player or team villains (I’m putting Patrick Reed near the top)

@beatingthebook UT survivor let’s go! How do you stand and who you taking today?

@beatingthebook Iowa Survivor. Let’s go!

@KelleyBydlon what’s more exciting, this Thursday morning pre games starting or Thursday morning pre Masters?

@KelleyBydlon Homa holing out for eagle on the first hole of the day at 8am Thursday is just setting the stage for an epic Players Champ

@KelleyBydlon @MattBrownM2 @IsaiahWrinkle @dhiggins_4 Over on drinks consumed is all that matters!

It was a triumphant return to the course! Had 5-6 terrible shots, 3-4 great ones, so overall better than I expected! A great time with the boys. overs cash on green hit, houses hit, balls lost, and drinks consumed. @MattBrownM2 @IsaiahWrinkle @dhiggins_4

@KelleyBydlon can we get an update on the golf round?

@beatingthebook wait what company is the commercial bet on?

@beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon I’v been very in the weeds on this, there is no concept of void in prediction markets. So in the example of a cancelled tennis match, it settles at “Last Traded Price” where the exchange determines the price. So yes, can be more or less than stake

EXCLUSIVE: @sporttrade_app has officially applied with the CFTC to become a registered exchange + clearinghouse

@beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon as more prediction markets enter the market and become increasingly popular amongst bettors and traders, do you think people will begin to bet/trade via percentages (implied probability)? Or will bettors always stick with American Odds

@beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon there’s seeing ghosts, then there’s getting the yips, and then there’s whatever CJ Stroud has

@KelleyBydlon it’s only fitting we start the PGA Tour year with a Keith Mitchell birdie on the first hole

@KelleyBydlon @beatingthebook on the LIV player discussion, want to get your thoughts on this. DP World Top 10 from last year get PGA Tour status this year. David Puig (on LIV) finished 5th on DP World points list. Does he get to play on PGA and/or LIV, DP World tours this year?

@beatingthebook I was watching the Kalshi odds/orderbook during the CFP show yesterday. Notre Dame - Yes pricing was consistently above 95% (sometimes bids getting to in the 80s). Miami was extremely volatile fluctuating as low as ~5% and up to ~40%. Watching it all flip was wild

@beatingthebook game theory survivor question (I am not still in survivor): If you knew the breakdown of how many entries were taking each teams on Thanksgiving, what percentage of the remaining entries would you need to see on the Ravens to put your entry on the Bengals?

What the difference a par save can make! Sami Valimaki goes from 62% to 91% on @sporttrade_app with a clutch par putt on the 16th at @TheRSMClassic

@womenstennis @beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon on a Guessing Lines Monday, we can’t bury the biggest headline of the morning non football related..

Danielle Collins is single and looking for a perfect match on dating app Raya, and her bio is hilarious! The 31-year-old says she’s done with her boss babe era and dreaming of a trad wife life. But warns, “This is a no short kings zone!" womenstennisblog.com/2025/11/01/dan…

@MagicRatSF @beatingthebook Yes I agree with all of this, there’s no exact way to back into the exact % of patron-patron trades. But I do think knowing it’s not a true 1:1 comparison is helpful But also, trading volume would include risk off trades of current positions while handle would not, correct?

@jack_larkin1 @beatingthebook Jack, Gill forwarded this to me and since you work at ST you know the following nuances as well. Here’s what I told Gill (not sure if he’s repeating on air):

@beatingthebook just as a heads up, when looking at prediction market trading volume, the trading volume is not an exact correlation to handle. For example, if someone bets $40 to win $60 at a sportsbook, the handle amount is $40. But the trading volume on this same trade is $100