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US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside. That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes.

Chicago/Midwest wholesale diesel now ABOVE the West Coast- $208 per barrel for ULSD... the market is completely unhinged.

@sidprabhu @dampedspring So Bernanke let the global credit system risk total collapse and gets #1?

@dampedspring Bernanke Greenspan [Huge Gap] Powell Yellen

Fed chairs in my professional life in order of preference for doing a good job. Volcker was before I started but blows all of these guys away. 1. Powell 2. Bernanke 3. Greenspan 4. Yellen

The UAE’s exit from Opec could be part of a "deal" to obtain security concessions from Israel and the US, experts say middleeasteye.pulse.ly/6zqqal2pdz

"The bond market is yelling from the rooftops that inflation is about to soar." @sam_gatlin

CHART OF THE DAY: The 2022 European energy crisis was mostly about natural gas and electricity prices. The shock of 2026 is (in Europe) largely about oil. EU power markets remain largely stable (📉⤵️). A key reason is that France is producing lots of nuclear power this time.

More worrying was the composition of growth. Household consumption was likely tepid, as was investment, leading to disappointing final domestic demand. Instead, growth likely benefited from inventories, that switched from drag to support. 2/

German GDP YoY SA Flash Actual 0.3% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.4%)

Eurozone Unemployment Rate Actual 6.2% (Forecast 6.2%, Previous 6.2% ,Revision 6.3%)

Eurozone GDP YoY Prelim Flash Actual 0.8% (Forecast 0.9%, Previous 1.2%)

Eurozone CPI YoY Flash Actual 3% (Forecast 3%, Previous 2.6%)

Iran's Supreme Leader: Iran to guard missile and nuclear tech like its borders.

June Brent > $122/bbl July Brent >$113/bbl In the current crisis, that July price is a much bigger deal than the June price.

I'd feel much more comfortable "looking through" this energy crisis if shipping was flowing again through the Strait - even if we would still face months of choas - but even the FLOW hasn't resumed. This is becoming an intractable mess

This is going to annoy people (sorry...) but Powell is gonna be remembered as a hero at the Fed. Got inflation back down, delivered a soft landing, and stood up to enormous political pressure. Probably leaving at just the right time 🤣

Brent front month is at $121 per barrel. That is higher than at any point during the war. Physical and paper price points are coming together. And they're both trending in the same direction: Up. #OOTT

Centcom readies plan for brief, intense strikes on Iran, likely hitting infrastructure - Axios

US war against Iran has cost $25 billion so far, according to Pentagon official.

BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Japan's 10-year government bond yield rises to 2.52%, the highest since 1997.

TODAY US crude oil: +8% Brent crude oil: +8% European natural gas: +9% Heating oil: +5.7% Gasoline: +5.3%