Alexander Kolyandr

Oil, gas, Ukraine, agriculture, politics: wherever you look, Russia is winnung big from the conflict in MidEast. Russia should crave for war, long and disruptive enough to profit, but limited not to plunge the world into recession with @amenka en.thebell.io/how-russia-win…

✈️Logistics headaches Four years of war have dismantled Russia’s logistical integration with the West, cutting direct air connections from 69 countries to 42. While travel now depends on costly hubs in Turkey and the Gulf, Aeroflot has failed to recover its pre-pandemic volumes as the domestic fleet struggles with the soaring price of sanctioned maintenance. Beyond aviation, trade has shifted into a high-friction landscape of expensive parallel imports and a deepening dependence on China. While goods still reach shelves, ballooning logistical costs are passed directly to shoppers, marking a permanent pivot from global efficiency to sanctioned isolation

💸Foreign payments Russian foreign trade has undergone a tectonic shift: the share of the dollar and euro in exports collapsed from 87% in early 2022 to nearly nothing, replaced by the ruble (54%) and yuan (32%) by 2025. While presented as “de-dollarization,” this was a forced retreat into a payment infrastructure that is slower, costlier, and riskier, leaving Russia dependent on a non-convertible yuan and limited ruble settlements

🏭Nationalization Since 2022 the confiscation of private property became a routine instrument of economic policy. The scale of the process is clearly visible in the numbers. In 2025, courts ordered the transfer of assets worth a total of $11.03 billion into state ownership — three times more than the year before ($3.89 billion). The share of nationalization in the total volume of mergers and acquisitions rose from 7.2% to 27.6%. In other words, more than a quarter of the entire Russian M&A market in 2025 was forced transfers to the state. Nationalization has shifted from a rare, targeted tool into an assembly line running through the courts, souring investment appetite and business sentiment. Its real impact will show up in 5–10 years, once enough cases and seized assets pile up

⚡️Communications shutdowns In 2021, Russia ranked sixth in the world in terms of internet accessibility. But four years later residents of dozens of Russian regions faced regular mobile internet blackouts as the authorities shut down connectivity in an attempt to counter drone threats, mostly without prior warning. The internet blackouts mean people cannot properly use taxis, car sharing, scooter rentals, or order food and grocery deliveries. Many payment terminals and ATMs also stop working. In August 2025 alone, there were 2,129 shutdowns across Russia — more than were registered in the entire world in 2024. A country that once ranked among the top ten in digitalization became the global leader in internet shutdowns

🧵How the war in Ukraine reshaped the Russian economy? By the fifth year of the war in Ukraine, it can seem like everything in Russia is fine. Packed restaurants serve sanctioned wine, Russians fly off on vacations to Turkey and Thailand, and couriers deliver goods to apartment blocks around the clock. At first glance, life goes on. But Russia’s economy today is almost unrecognizable compared to before the invasion — and it may never return to what it was. Over the past four years, the very fabric of economic life has been rewoven: how people and businesses pay for things, how the internet works and who owns property. In this thread, we look at several ways Russia’s economy in 2026 is profoundly — and perhaps permanently — different from that of 2021.

Where is Putin’s Russia Going? (The Bell In Moscow’s Shadows) The inestimable @kolyandr of the indispensable @thebell_io and I chat about how Putin's #Russia has changed over 4 years of war, and where it's going youtu.be/H-uxorF2xPM?si…

As Russia and Ukraine intensify negotiations, the EU is increasing sanctions pressure. Its latest proposed package of sanctions — the 20th — has several potentially effective measures, but they are unlikely to be implemented quickly. (Subscribtion) en.thebell.io/eu-tries-to-si…

The Bell in Moscow's Shadows 4yrs into the war Is Russia running out of money, patience or flexibility? Is it ready for the challenges ahead? In discussion with @MarkGaleotti , whose In Moscow’s Shadows podcast is a must for Russia-watchers youtube.com/watch?v=H-uxor…

Putin calls war veterans “Russia’s true elite.” The data, brilliantly read by @kolyandr tell a different story: the poorer the region, the higher the death rate. People from Buryatia, Tuva, or Chukotka are 25× more likely to die than Muscovites. As the economy slows, poverty grows — and so does the pool of recruits. The full story in our weekly newsletter en.thebell.io/waging-war-wit…

how militarised the Russian economy has become? here is manufacturing for you. All the top performers are military-related sectors, and they drive the growth, as civilian sectors stumble. more on that in The Bell soon

Russia Loses Venezuela, the Avocado Ally | "The Kremlin has waved goodbye to another ally, at a low-ish cost in rubles but a higher price in political currency." @kolyandr cepa.org/article/russia…

Включение России в «черный список ЕС», не будет запрещает фин операции и не будет по умолчанию распространяться на живущих за пределами России ее граждан и их компании, пояснили The Bell в ЕК. Но их финансовые операции, связанные с Россией будут проверяться более тщательно

Russian economy lurched from spectacular growth to near-stagnation, from consumer sprees to belt-tightening. The contradictions that officials papered over for months caught up with them — and the true costs of the war are now impossible to ignore. Dec 10, 08:30 AM EDT /14:30 CET

It seems Russian manufacturing, including arms production, reached a saturation point. The economy is cooling off, recession looms.

Manufacturing is losing its mojo even in military production. amid various poor available options, the Kremlin is toying with protectionism. more in our weekly with @amenka for The Bell. behind a pay wall, but still cheap en.thebell.io/russia-teeters…

In chem production growth stalls,but explosives' share of total climbs. In finished metals production, which includes most of arms and ammo the pic is similar2/3

The Russian economy, which as recently as the end of last year was showing annual growth of 4.5%, faces not just a slowdown, but a likely recession. The latest official data suggests the economy could dip into negative growth as early as this summer. 1/3

more in our The Bell weekly, coauthored with @amenka Alexandra Prokopenko en.thebell.io/spending-spend…

In the first 4months of 2024 the state burned through 31.9% of its planned annual spending, in 2024 it was 37.4%. C 1/2 of the increase is military. it may be that Russia is trying to support sharply declining growth, it may be also that it's gearing for a summer offensive. 2/3

Russia continues to spend faster than ever. total spending between January and April was 20% up from the equivalent period last year– far beyond the planned level of growth for the year. The pace of spending, however, is even more indicative than the raw figures. 1/3