Mike Maran

$BTC cycle suggests key lows likely in Q4 22' - Q1 2023, followed by several months of consolidation before a change in trend. Cycle peak to cycle low took 12-14 months in the 13' and 18' bear markets. Watch for capitulation/prolonged chop in this zone for a buying opportunity

@factor_members “My edge comes from surviving chaos” 💎 

@LeifSoreide @tradetheblue Sugar, corn, and cotton futures Gold yesterday to the downside Slim to none in stocks. Only thing working there is fading prior day highs or prior lows

@tradetheblue Any giving risk multiples from properly defined pivots? It's rare. Not just stuff flying around with poor right side development...

When trading breakouts becomes increasingly more difficult it is often one of the earliest leading indicators of an impending market downturn. If your go-to setups suddenly stop paying and start failing, it's usually a clear signal to tighten up risk, reduce size, or go to cash. I've worked with many top-performing traders over the years, guys who crush it year after year, and this is one signal they all respect without exception. Breakouts don't randomly become more difficult. The market's telling you something's shifting beneath the surface. Ignore it at your peril! Respect it and survive to trade another cycle. What are you seeing in your own setups right now? 📊

@factor_members Nice chart!

Consolidation in an long term uptrend. My view is a break of the neckline is highly prone to a false breakdown. The quarterly chart can be a viewed as a bull flag variation above the 8 quarter MA. A weekly close below 450ish would be a character change in the uptrend. Not something I’d short either way

@factor_members $BRKB would you see these S being an expanding wedge and within it a Head and Shoulders?

@factor_members Makes perfect sense. Appreciate the detailed clarification!

@factor_members Too much* overhead

@factor_members I found they’re best as just visual guides for compression.. nothing more. For those that wonder why, diagonals have too overhead supply. Each pivot higher is likely met with selling and morphs with time. The steeper the slope the higher the failure rate (in my experience)

@factor_members Peter, have you seen this many false breakdowns/traps in the past in other market regimes? seems they’ve become a lot more common, but not sure if it’s just the environment or I’m seeing them more. Seeing it a ton in equities & BTC Do you often use them as an entry tactic?

@saxton_pope @factor_members Truly

@factor_members Wow that is absolutely astonishing!!

@factor_members Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader was the biggest influence in my trading journey. I know you don’t love your book, but it was pivotal for me and I’m sure many traders. I’m not sure trade this trade would have happened if not for that book

@factor_members One of my favorite emails!

@factor_members I really want to be long this but the overhead supply around 1120 leads me to think it might be a bit messy/ choppy wedge action before a real move occurs. My thinking is something like the image shown.. maybe overthinking this one but id prefer more time for consolidation

@factor_members I’ve heard so many times people recommending to others start with a demo account. IMO this is a BIG NO! It’s a totally different game when you don’t care about real losses

@factor_members Here's a weekly chart - 200sma/300sma held trend. Looks to align with your measured move. The red highlight indicates support at yearly closing highs or major pivot lows. The next major pivot low below 74k is ~50k, which is roughly the 2021 closing high and between the MAs

@factor_members My issue with buy stops on BTC is its tendency to have false moves on new daily or weekly highs, especially in the last year. Something I haven’t seen nearly as much in other cycles. My best long entries (short term) have been false breakdowns below prior day lows + reclaim

@factor_members Thank you. Glad to be back

@factor_members Peter, when I first read your book in 2011 and began following your work, I thought your success stemmed from what you actively did. I realized it was far more what you didn’t do. That is precisely why I rejoined as a Factor member this year, to relearn that discipline from you.

@Scot1andT Canadian $

It was a buy- here’s what it looks like now.

@PeterLBrandt @SteveJRandall Peter, while Substack chat feature is good it can be hard to follow and quite noisy. I think a paid discord would be best for engagement and cutting out the noise

@SteveJRandall Is engagement possible?

Hey followers on X (Twitter) I may only have one to two years left with an outfacing presence on social media as a trader I want to make the best of the time left for a generational transfer of knowledge I am basically finding X a useless platform to have intelligent engagement with real traders I will take some of the blame b/c of my wanderings into social/political issues (they cultural depravity does matter to me as a Christian) I know for a fact that X greatly throttled me in Nov/Dec 2022. I have solid data showing this to be the case. X staff will not acknowledge this or research the algorithms doing their dirty work I'd rather have deeper engagement with far fewer traders than tons of uncontrolled trolls and ignorant comments on X I will continue to serve private Factor members on a restricted X stream where I keep members up to date on my actual trades. I will also continue to provide weekly and periodic pdfs to my private community Thinking about several other venues to use for whatever years or months I have left for communicating to broader audience about markets and trading Any thoughts on one or combination below if I can expel trolls below: --YouTube for short videos --Public blog --Discord --Substack --Linkedin --Others A lack of engagement on this X post will solidify my growing negative opinion of X

@ChrisDunnTV @aantonop @ErikVoorhees @TuurDemeester

Who was instrumental in getting you into bitcoin/crypto?