Michael A. Gayed, CFA

The Fed just spoke. Now hear what they won't tell you. LIVE today 1PM ET with @JDHatfield_ICAP: → Real inflation is 1.9%, not 3.1% → S&P target: 8,000 → CE credit eligible FREE: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regist… @InfraCap

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@leadlagreport Superb. Following you is the next best thing to having clear vision.

You never know how strong you really are until you have no other choice.

FUCKED.

@leadlagreport YOUR HAMSTER. FUCKED

SOMEONE RECORD CNBC WORLD NOW

“ What is the “disposition effect”? The disposition effect is a well-documented behavioral finance bias where investors tend to: • Sell winning positions (assets that have risen a lot) too early — to lock in gains and feel good about realizing profits. • Hold onto losing positions too long — hoping to avoid realizing a loss (and the associated regret/pain). It’s the opposite of the rational “cut your losses and let your winners run” approach. The thesis Michael Gayed is referring to From his prior commentary (including an earlier post explicitly saying “Remember this was the thesis”), Gayed has been arguing for some time that gold — after a massive multi-year run-up (reaching well above $5,000/oz, up ~71% in a single year per related context) — had become the classic “big winner” in portfolios. In a risk-off or liquidity-crunch environment, investors (especially leveraged ones facing margin calls from other positions) would preferentially sell the gold first to raise cash, precisely because it was the asset showing large unrealized gains. Selling losers feels psychologically worse, so the disposition effect makes gold the “first to go” when liquidity is needed”

On CNBC World around 7 PM EST. Might talk about Japan I dunno

FUCKED.

WE GONNA FUCKING CRASH

@DigitalFutur3 Phase Few.

@leadlagreport Talking about Phase 2?

Going to be live on CNBC in a little over an hour.

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The Free Markets ETF ( $FMKT ) finished at $20.56 today, down 1.06%. Research shows companies experiencing regulatory relief often see significant decreases in compliance costs. $FMKT gives you targeted exposure to this powerful economic catalyst.

March 2026 Fed dot plot: 1 cut this year. Six months ago: market consensus was 3+ cuts. The Fed didn't change. The data did. Oil at $100. CPI sticky. Iran war unresolved. The market is finally listening to the dots.

Fasting taught me one thing markets never will: The body adapts. It gets efficient under stress. Portfolios don't adapt on their own. You have to force the adaptation. Cut the positions that are consuming energy with no output.

WTI-Dubai crude spread: $50+. Unprecedented. Dubai crude hit an all-time high above $150. WTI at $96-103. This isn't a simple oil rally. Physical market dislocation of this magnitude rewrites global trade flows.