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2025 Year in Review: 2024-2025 YoY: +45.8%
Since tracking (Feb 2013): +2,676% or +31.1% CAGR
Max drawdown: 12.3% (Jan 24 to April 11)
Calmar: 3.7
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Lex Mutatio
11.7K posts
Lex Mutatio
@lexmutatio
Macro - Geopolitics - Technology - Finance. Let the games begin!
Earth เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2014
1.1K กำลังติดตาม753 ผู้ติดตาม
@abcampbell Alex riding and choosing violence all at the same time
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On the latest Ramble...
The market is not positioned for what's coming.
campbellramble.ai/p/war-for-the-…
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@AlexBerenson Remind us where you served and your rank in the armed forces?
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Here’s what I’d do, not that you asked.
Send the 82nd and enough firepower to hold the perimeter at Ishafan for 24 hours.
Send the SF and Chem Corps into the tunnels along with the 12Bs. Hope they don’t die. Mine the tunnels. Forget extracting the HEU. Just blow the canisters, the real ones, the decoys, and everything else. Level the whole facility from the inside out, leave it a poisoned, irradiated ruin. The nice thing about gas is that it floats away.
Tell the Iranians that even though their HEU is gone we won’t let the Israelis kill them anymore if they open the Strait. No more regime change. They won. Otherwise we and the Israelis will keep picking them off.
Declare victory.
Declare victory again.
Hope like hell they didn’t smuggle out any HEU.
Go home.
It’s not ideal, but it’s probably the best we got.
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@LauraLoomer There are all kinds of babies, some babies can only sleep on their stomach and can’t do that on a plane so you get a crying baby…
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Is there anything worse than a crying baby on a plane?
I wish parents would control their children. It’s so disruptive. I refuse to believe a baby cries for 10 hours. At some point this is just bad parenting, right?
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@Merridew__ I guess nuclear isn’t renewable but you get my drift.
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@Merridew__ Except the only renewable that could really do it - considering load and peaks - is nuclear, and the enviros were all against it.
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@Merridew__ Your criticism of Trump shouldn’t whitewash Qatar, hardly innocent AT ALL by any measure.
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If you think this war is about to end without the removal of this regime in Iran, I don't know what to say...
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
⚠ BREAKING: Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians' blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets.
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@VolSignals @QuintenFrancois @LeverageMonkey Both COVID and Liberation Day drops were both events that were easily foreseen (at least by me despite lacking special powers).
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@QuintenFrancois @LeverageMonkey False
COVID was expected, wrecked everyone.
Relying on nonsense kills
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Black swan events don’t happen if everyone expects them.
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@logicalself @FundasyInvestor @orrdavid why would you short ESLT? if the war is successful clients will be lining up not walking away
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@FundasyInvestor @orrdavid I think the better trade is to short $ESLT, the israeli defense stock. The financial/software trade is linked to AI/private credit issues.
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there is always room for criticism of israeli and us policy
its different if you're an israeli facing an iran that is seeking to kill you and destroy your country on a continual basis
this war was going to happen sooner or later no matter what, iranian regime was never going to relent on their radical goal vis-a-vis israel
through that lens its not a matter of balancing against potential backlash re antisemitism, its a matter of removing an existential threat that is becoming too big and too difficult to deal with very soon
it all comes down to whether you believe iran had that as a real goal (not debatable) and if they were going to ever give up that capability (delusional/naive thinking)
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The Mueller post and the Iran 48 hr post is all one post
Trump 3.0 is here and not going away till its all over
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@WhalePanda Moron, bought bitcoin early and thinks he’s a genius but is just another mid twit antisemite Belgian.
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The missile "attack" on Diego Garcia was odd, didn't make much sense. Iran denied it.
And then you realize that all the messaging since then is using the same "scary" picture IDF posted and then you know:
It's just another obvious Israeli false flag.
x.com/IDF/status/203…
Israel Defense Forces@IDF
❗️The Iranian terrorist regime launched a long-range missile for the first time since the start of Operation Roaring Lion that could reach a distance of ~4,000 km. During Operation Rising Lion in June 2025, the IDF revealed that the Iranian regime has intentions to develop missiles with a range of 4,000 km, which pose a danger to dozens of countries in Europe, Asia and Africa. The Iranian regime denied this. We have been saying it: The Iranian terrorist regime poses a global threat. Now, with missiles that can reach London, Paris or Berlin. The Iranian terror regime has carried out attacks against 12 countries in the region and is developing a capability that poses a much broader threat.
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𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁
A man once planted two seeds.
One day, he planted a mango tree.
Years later, sweet fruit grew.
Another day, he planted onions.
When they grew, they were bitter.
He looked at the earth and asked,
“Why do you reward me sometimes, and punish me other times?”
The earth said nothing.
Because it wasn’t rewarding him.
It wasn’t punishing him.
It was simply responding.
Later, the man touched fire.
It burned him.
He pulled his hand away and shouted,
“Why are you teaching me a lesson?”
But the fire had no lesson.
It had no intention.
It was just being fire.
Years passed.
The man lost his job.
A relationship ended.
His life fell apart.
His friends told him,
“Everything happens for a reason.”
“This is here to teach you.”
“The universe has a plan.”
He wanted to believe them.
It felt comforting to think
that his pain was designed for him,
that it meant something.
But deep down, something didn’t sit right.
So he sat quietly and watched his life.
He noticed something simple:
Every action created conditions.
And those conditions created results.
Not because the universe cared.
Not because it had a plan.
But because that’s how things work.
Plant mango, get mango.
Plant onions, get onions.
Touch fire, get burned.
Make careless choices, suffer consequences.
There was no hidden teacher.
No cosmic reward system.
No punishment.
Only cause… and effect.
And in that realization,
something strange happened.
For the first time,
he stopped waiting for life to make sense,
and started taking responsibility for what he creates.
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@K_AminThaabet Hillel is a clown who supports the worst of the worst extremist politicians in Israel. He’s also a bit of an idiot.
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Israel isn’t “playing games” or “wearing gloves.” The whole IDF is performing exceedingly well and executing with all its might on a well coordinated plan. It’s war & some THAAD batteries missed interceptions. Get the frustration but this is not time for “guy in the Shuk” takes.
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@ianbremmer IRGC are in very big trouble. They don’t just have the Americans to worry about.
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i worry that tehran interprets this level of incoherence/inconsistency as panic.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP
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@stevehou Respectfully, that was 4 years ago and before the events of 10/7.
A lot has changed since that hope as Oman couldn’t even condemn Hamas, for example.
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@lexmutatio Anyway I agree with the paragraphs I quoted. I don't know the broader context.
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Great op-ed from the foreign minister of Oman.
The Economist@TheEconomist
“America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth,” argues Oman’s chief diplomat. “That begins with the fact that there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it” economist.com/by-invitation/…
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You won’t find it written down much but Oman is much closer to Iran relation-wise and much closer to Qatar in their approach to Israel. There was some speculation and hope bringing them into the Abraham Accords fold but that was a brief moment in time.
While not as hostile as Qatar in actions, Oman is definitely not close to neutral when it comes to Israel. They also have a lot to gain by portraying themselves as a neutral peacemaker intermediary like Qatar tries to do.
A lot of smoke and mirrors.
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@lexmutatio I know very little about the history. But I just read that Oman has had low level relations with Israel since the 70s, nearly joined the Abraham Accords, and has "on-going cooperations" with Israel. It doesn't sound to me like Oman "very anti-Israel".
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Nice try, buddy.
Israelis don’t know how to fight is a ridiculous and stupid statement and devoid of any context.
40% friendly fire is not true, easily checked.
Projectiles that are left to fall are done so because trajectory shows they will land in a populated area or in the sea so no point wasting interceptors.
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Israelis don't really know how to fight, but are brilliant spies as far as I can garner from Erik Prince.
Erik Prince of BlackWater said 3 things that never left me on an interview with Shawn Ryan.
He's never met a Jewish roughneck.
Israel has 40% friendly fire deaths in the IDF.
50% of projectiles lobbed over from the North bypass the Israeli defense systems.
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Retarded government is going to act retarded.
There are people in this Israeli government that are low IQ psychopaths taking advantage of the war distraction to allow the small number of extremists to run wild, hurt Palestinians needlessly and further damage Israel’s reputation.
The sane Israeli is sadly fighting two external wars and an internal one at the same time.
Ihab Hassan@IhabHassane
BREAKING: Israeli settlers are now burning down Palestinian homes in the village of Silat ad-Dhahr in the West Bank and attempting to burn families alive. People are pleading for help to put out the fires, as many families remain trapped inside their homes.
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Retarded government is going to be retarded.
There are people in this Israeli government that are low IQ psychopaths taking advantage of the war distraction to allow the small number of extremists to run wild, hurt Palestinians and further damage Israel’s reputation.
The sane Israeli is sadly fighting two external wars and an internal one at the same time.
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I don't understand this...while Israel is under bombardment by ballistic missiles with many casualties..in this area in the West Bank the decision is made by extremists to go out and attack civilians...it's deeply troubling. Why would anyone do this? They could be volunteering to help in Arad or Dimona instead. Such a disconnect and horror
Ihab Hassan@IhabHassane
BREAKING: Israeli settlers are now burning down Palestinian homes in the village of Silat ad-Dhahr in the West Bank and attempting to burn families alive. People are pleading for help to put out the fires, as many families remain trapped inside their homes.
English