James Morley

237 posts

James Morley

@macromorley

Professor of Macroeconomics @Sydney_Uni

เข้าร่วม Nisan 2020

399 กำลังติดตาม530 ผู้ติดตาม

James Morley รีทวีตแล้ว

ANU CAMA@CAMacroAnalysis·23 Nis

Global forces drive r-star 📉 Morley @macromorley & Wong show global shocks drove most of the decline in r-star for 7 advanced open economies since the GFC, but local shocks still matter—leaving a role for tracking domestic r-stars. 🔗 bit.ly/3YHGEnk @ANUCrawford

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Trung Phan@TrungTPhan·4 Kas

my work calendar completely packed this week

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Brian Krassenstein@krassenstein·23 Ağu

The cutest part of the DNC: Kamala Harris’ nieces teach America how to pronounce her first name as Kerry Washington helps. I’m sure Trump will continue to disrespect her and say it wrong but oh well. We won’t have to deal with him much longer if you vote!

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ANU CAMA@CAMacroAnalysis·21 Ağu

New CAMA working paper (Vol: 52/2024): ‘How Does Tax and Transfer Progressivity Affect Household Consumption Insurance?’, by Yunho Cho @jnu1906, @macromorley @Sydney_Uni and Aarti Singh @Sydney_Uni. Read it at: bit.ly/4cron1X @ANUCrawford

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Khoa Vu@KhoaVuUmn·7 Tem

Sure 13 papers in 2.5 years are impressive, but have you ever had 13 appendices in 1 paper?

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James Morley@macromorley·20 Haz

For everyone who was at the Dolomiti Macro Meetings, I’m sharing the results for the Norwegian output gap from the BN filter website bnfiltering.com/#/apply?m=CLVM…

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Bori Assad H.@AssadBori·2 Haz

#ASSE2024: "Business cycle: sources of persistent changes in the output gap and unemployment rate", @macromorley of @Sydney_Uni presented the importance of good output gap estimations using trend-cycle decomposition from web-based user friendly tools. @EnseaO @BCEAO_Officiel

Niger 🇳🇪 English

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James Morley รีทวีตแล้ว

ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel@EnseaO·31 May

Le Directeur de l'@EnseaO 🇨🇮, Dr. #Hugues_KOUADIO, a procédé à l'ouverture de l'Université d'été (ASSE) 2024, ce vendredi 31 mai 2024. Il a souhaité à ses hôtes le traditionnel "AKWABA". @MPD_CI , @econometricsoc ,@ird_fr , @oxmartinschool , @qe_editors,@BCEAO_Officiel

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James Morley รีทวีตแล้ว

ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel@EnseaO·31 May

▶️Prof #JAMES_MOLRLEY de @Sydney_Uni a instruit les participants sur le cycle économique avec les sources des changements persistants dans l'écart de production et le taux de chômage. @MPD_CI , @econometricsoc ,@the_ACEProject ,@oxmartinschool , @ird_fr , @AFD_France

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James Morley@macromorley·2 Haz

Thank you to @EnseaO for giving me the opportunity to give lectures on trend-cycle decomposition at the Africa Summer School in Econometrics. The group of PhD students from many countries provided brilliant questions and we had fun trying out new series in bnfiltering.com

ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel@EnseaO

Merci au Professeur #JAMES_MORLEY, Expert en Macroéconomie à l'@Sydney_Uni en Australie, pour ce riche partage d'expérience 👍👍👍 @MPD_CI , @the_ACEProject , @ird_fr , @econometricsoc ,

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James Morley@macromorley·18 Nis

@J_Meanwell The excellent study by Haug and Power on NZ fiscal multipliers with tight or loose monetary policy was also published (open access) in The @EconomicRecord doi.org/10.1111/1475-4…

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James Graham@J_Meanwell·18 Nis

Estimates from Otago+RBNZ (2021): a 1% decrease in government spending reduces real GDP by 0.25%. Important! When monetary policy is doing its job, there is *NO EFFECT* on real GDP. Monetary policy completely stabilizes aggregate demand! 5/5 (ourarchive.otago.ac.nz/bitstream/hand…)

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James Graham@J_Meanwell·18 Nis

Neither govt nor journalists are able to work out the flow on effects of a cut in government spending? Funny they've missed 100 years of academic discussion on the fiscal multiplier... We even have good estimates for New Zealand! 🧵 1/5 (stuff.co.nz/politics/35024…)

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James Morley@macromorley·6 Nis

Sometimes trend-cycle decompositions are misspecified in the sense that assumed random walk trends display serial correlation in their estimates. In our new JBES article, Ben Wong, Brian TD Tran, and I propose a simple correction for this and estimate r* doi.org/10.1080/073500…

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James Morley รีทวีตแล้ว

ANU CAMA@CAMacroAnalysis·1 Nis

CAMA working paper (Vol: 24/2024): ‘Trend-Cycle Decomposition After COVID’, by Güneş Kamber @IMFNews, @macromorley and Benjamin Wong @MonashUni Read it at: bit.ly/3Vwhl7b @ANUCrawford

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James Morley@macromorley·28 Mar

The bnfiltering.com website allows application of the BN filter to any time series using a FRED mnemonic or directly entered into the website. Fully adaptable Matlab or R code also available at sites.google.com/site/jamescmor…

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James Morley@macromorley·28 Mar

In our working paper ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2…, we introduce some refinements to the BN filter that produce a smoother trend, but retain the strong reliability of the original BN filter in our 2018 REStat paper doi.org/10.1162/rest_a…

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James Morley@macromorley·28 Mar

If you want to conduct trend-cycle decomposition assuming a smooth trend and including Covid-era data, use the BN filter described in our new working paper ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2…, with online tool available at bnfiltering.com

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James Morley@macromorley·23 Şub

Wait, aren’t Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen “super-nerds”? This is peak ozpol cultural-cringey anti-intellectualism

Shane Wright@swrighteconomy

Former RBA governor Bernie Fraser notes concerns about a special committee of "super-nerds" overseeing interest rate settings.

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James Morley รีทวีตแล้ว

Khoa Vu@KhoaVuUmn·10 Şub

Econ PhD. You invented Econ PhD.

Zac@OchoZaco

I think there needs to be a dedicated class in High School and I don’t know what we’d call it but it is the “identify the BS” class. It would show headlines that one would see come across your feed and require you to dig deeper to uncover author biases and refuting data.

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ค้นพบ

@ANUCrawford @jnu1906 @Sydney_Uni @EnseaO @BCEAO_Officiel @MPD_CI @econometricsoc @ird_fr