Markus Neuschäfer
11.1K posts

Markus Neuschäfer
@mneuschaefer
🌎 open society ⚛️🍃climate repair 🍽️🌱 harm-free food | private account

Demand destruction won’t fix this. The world cannot function with 10–15% less energy. We are 15mbpd short of crude & products versus my Feb baseline. If the Red Sea route remains open to the South (VLCCs) and assuming some VIP toll booths treatment (like 20 « Pakistani » vessels), it reduces to 12mbpd in April. Some of the gap is compensated with SPR releases, but with highly uneven results due to location & quality issues. During Covid, when OECD, China, and most major economies briefly shut down (Chinese literally locked people up in their apartments), demand fell by 16.5mbpd at peak, and only for a few weeks. Most demand snapped back within weeks. Demand normalized within months, adjusted for the recession and ex-jet. Gasoline, diesel, & bunker demand are highly inelastic. People don’t stop driving or shipping because prices rise. Jet and naphtha are more elastic, but cannot fix the lack of crude at the refinery level evenly. By April, some governments will learn that reopening the Strait is not optional, and that it takes real resources to do so. That’s when panic begins. This has the potential to become the mother of all crises. Respect it. It’s highly likely to get real awkward. And pay attention to the political blame game that’s already in full swing and isn’t helping. Eventually this crisis gets fixed and yes, the invisible hand of oil is incredibly powerful. But it won’t return to pre-war barrel counting anytime soon and certainly not with policies like this.


OK, wow😳 Gebe zu: Wusste ich auch nicht⬇️




Yazidi cleric: “We Yazidis must walk a righteous and honorable path — the path of God. We must be an example to others. Today, many of us live in Europe. That is why we have a duty to respect the laws of these countries and not trample them underfoot. I say this to our youth, to our daughters and sons: the bread of these lands is halal. These countries took us in, they protect us, and they have allowed us to live a good life. Pray for these countries. Pray that they remain strong. May God bring peace to this earth. May God extinguish the fires that have been ignited across the world. May He bring people closer to one another — toward humanity — regardless of where they come from or what religion they belong to. We wish nothing but good for all people.”


Tja liebe #Grüne 🌻 da könnt ihr schäumen wie ihr wollt, das ist die Konsequenz aus dem #AKW Ausstieg.


Tokyo is able to turn to nuclear power to help reduce dependence on LNG 🇯🇵 ☢️ The No 6 reactor at Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant just reached full power for the first time in over a decade That will replace ~1.1m tons of LNG a year (15 shipments). Good timing for Japan

Als deutsche Regierung Trump öffentlich zu erklären, er habe „keine Strategie“ - das entbehrt nicht einer gewissen Ironie. Noch mehr öffentlicher Streit mit Trump oder gar Schadenfreude sind nicht in unserem Interesse.

Offene Lügenpropaganda beim @derspiegel, Täter-Opfer-Umkehr. Der aktuelle Krieg der Hisbollah gegen Israel begann, als die Hisbollah (Trotz Warnungen der USA und Israels) sich dem Vernichtungskrieg der Hamas gegen Israel anschloss und Raketensalven auf Israel abfeuerte.











