Mark - RIGHT WITH JESUS

Major notes from the weekend on Iran: 1) Combined Force strikes started hitting IRGC Ground Forces units in the Kurdish regions. 2) We have confirmed that IRGC members are at least two cycles behind on pay. 3) *Coincidentally,* I'm sure, the IRGC Ground Forces Commander went on a tour visiting these forces. In combination, these three notes indicate a high risk of desertion throughout the IRGC. 4) Separately, we have the attack on Diego Garcia that, frankly, justifies the war in and of itself. The base itself isn't terribly significant, its not that "Iran can get Diego Garcia! We have to go to war!" The issue is that Iran constantly lies about everything to do with its nuclear program. Taqiyya. They've issued fatwas against nuclear weapons, then simultaneously enrich uranium to levels only usable in weapons while developing long-range ballistic missiles. "Its for medical purposes!" No, it wasn't, and it couldn't be. Uranium enriched to this degree has no medical uses. "Its for self-defense!" Then why were you hiding a long range ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to London? The fact they were developing these weapons while consistently lying about it, in the face of all the world being united against their acquisition of the weapons, combined with all of their past acts of terrorism and piracy, absolutely justifies this war. 5) On Negotiations: These are being played very close to the chest, but here's what I've been able to gather... Witkoff and Kushner are keeping lines of communication open with non-IRGC elements of the Iranian State—if I had to guess, I'd expect officials within the Republican Government. If not Pezeshkian himself, then probably people with access to him. It seems abundantly clear that the situation in Iran is at this point A Tale of Two Cities. One is an IRGC-Cleric alliance propping up the corpse of the Velayat-e Faqih. The other is the Republican-Reform alliance propping up the still in-tact organs of state outside of the IRGC's control. We are almost certainly negotiating with one of these 'cities,' and not the other. This is what I expected would be the prelude to final resolution. The existing power structures in Iran will continue to pull support away from, and rallying support against, the IRGC. At this point, it appears the plan is to reach a pre-negotiated settlement with the Republican-Reform Government while hammering the IRGC on all available fronts and enabling a fairly smooth transition of power. Mass uprising is probably now the backup plan, with total dismantling of Iran's infrastructure the backup to the backup plan.

Major notes from the week on Iran: 1) The USS Tripoli settled in at Diego Garcia on March 23 and that's the last position I've heard it confirmed. Diego Garcia to Hormuz is 5-7 days. 2) The IDF/USA Force has achieved the ability to hit the entirety of Iran, demonstrated by striking targets on the far side of the country. 3) The report about IRGC lowering its minimum age is kinda fake news. The IRGC has a very long history of using children in human wave attacks, as minesweepers, and suicide bombers. You can look this up, they're quite proud of their child martyrs. What this announcement does indicate is that they will probably be kidnapping children to conscript and/or hold as hostages to prevent rebellion and desertion. "Habibi, you love working for the IRGC so much, why doesn't your sweet little Muhammad join up with us, too? He'll stay here in the barracks to make sure you show up to your shift." We should probably expect some tearjerking story about how the U.S. or Israel killed a bunch of kids while trying to bomb an IRGC post. 4) The Strait of Hormuz is subject to the loosest blockade in the history of naval warfare, which is actually just pretty interesting academically. I won't get too deep into that rabbit hole, but the Schrodinger's Strait is neither open nor closed until a particular ship is observed and the wave function collapses. Major Assessments: The additional ordered deployments and keeping Tripoli at Diego Garcia indicates that we're building up a significant force. Alarmists will see this build up and conclude that we're preparing for a major land operation, but I very much doubt it. It will look very real; that's the whole point. And while Trump doesn't exactly bluff, he absolutely does misdirect. My assessment from Monday remains pretty steady—I believe from the context that we have some counterparts in the Iranian Republican Government that are consolidating their own political power against the IRGC and Clerics. The extension of the deadline and this build up are a Sword of Damocles. The looming threat it poses keeps the pressure on the Iranian Republicans to get their business sorted, and pressure on the individuals within the IRGC to consider desertion or defection (to the Republicans/Reformers. In the meantime, the Combined Force will likely keep pounding the IRGC.

THOMAS SOWELL: “if you’re going to have reparations for slavery, it’s going to be the greatest transfer of wealth back and forth, because the number of Whites who were enslaved in North Africa by the Barbary Pirates exceeded the number of Africans enslaved in the United States.”

IDF: Troops uncovered a Hezbollah tunnel network beneath a church in Khiam, southern Lebanon. Givati Brigade scans revealed an underground route and three newly dug shafts, indicating the infrastructure was reactivated during the 2024–2026 ceasefire. The military says the site had previously been cleared in December 2024 and accuses Hezbollah of reusing civilian and religious locations for military activity.