Nicholas Glinsman
34.5K posts
Nicholas Glinsman
@nglinsman
Co-Founder at Verstand Global Macro LLC Macro PM, Brevan Howard & Salomon alumni. Macro & geopolitical commentator. London School of Economics
Miami, FL เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2010
1.1K กำลังติดตาม16.6K ผู้ติดตาม
Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
Simply a way to recycle bad debt, not stimulate the economy.
Shehzad Qazi@shehzadhqazi
“China will allow local govts to issue 6 trillion yuan in additional special bonds over three years to swap hidden debt..local govts will be able to tap another total of 4 trillion yuan in new special local bond quota over five years for the same purpose” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Not stimulus
@shehzadhqazi
George Magnus@georgemagnus1
The Chinese Finance Minister says more may be in the pipeline for land and property clean up purposes, but today's fiscal easing announcement will be a disappointment. Maybe more when DT's policy looks clearer. Short thread on why Beijing is still on the back foot 1/6
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@dampedspring is providing gems of analysis here on X. Always hugely informative and should be read and re-read
Andy Constan@dampedspring
Decomposing a change in nominal yields 101 Today at the FOMC press conference Jay Powell mentioned decomposition. The goal of decomposition is to attribute the changes in nominal yields to isolate economic drivers. As he said there are lots of models. This 🧵is not meant to
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Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
Three hours before the Presser, this came out.
So, why was Powell trying to "bait" Trump into a fight over his job?
Powell didn't need to answer questions about his job.
Or does Powell want to fight with Trump about his job?
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President-elect Donald Trump is likely to allow Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to serve out the remainder of his term, which expires in May 2026, according to a senior adviser to Trump requesting anonymity to describe private conversations.
cnn.com/2024/11/07/pol…
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch
I'll have more takeaways from Powell's presser later. However, one that jumps out now is Powell's insistence that he did not want to talk about politics or a change in fiscal outlook given the election. Then, he dramatically and emotionally jumped into discussing the politics around his job. *POWELL SAYS HE WON'T STEP DOWN AS FED CHAIR IF ASKED BY TRUMP *POWELL: DEMOTION OF FED VICE CHAIRS NOT PERMITTED UNDER THE LAW (Powell is a Fed Governor. The idea is for Trump to demote him to a "regular" governor and appoint another chairman, presumably Bowman or Waller.) I'm guessing Powell has been rewatching this.
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The opportunity of a lifetime to ensure peace and stability in the Middle East for the next 50 or maybe 100 years:
1) Peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel.
2) Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of an expanded Abraham Accords, including a formula to freeze over the Palestinian Arab conflict.
3) Peace treaty between Israel and a new, non-Islamist Iran.
4) Erdogan kept in a box and prevented from realizing his dangerous neo-Ottoman ambitions.
5) Empowerment of our Kurdish friends.
6) Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis utterly defeated.
Visegrád 24@visegrad24
Netanyahu held a 20-minute call with Trump today. Looks like they are already preparing for what’s to come in the Middle East. The world is waiting for the Cyrus Accords. 🇺🇸🇮🇱
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@dampedspring @INArteCarloDoss Me too. In fact, I was blocked from the outset of when he started to pick up followers. I have some thoughts as to why, but itis what it is. I think it a shame, as we could all have illuminating exchanges.
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Still blocked by @INArteCarloDoss But someone will definitely ask about ending QT and if he says it's going to happen soon the long bond will puke. Maybe not today but the pop will be an awesome sale. dampedspring.com/wp-content/upl…
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Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
“In October, China’s exports to the U.S. rose 8.1% from a year ago, according to a CNBC calculation of official data.
China’s exports to the European Union and the ASEAN increased 12.7% and 15.8% on year, respectively” @anniekbyx
cnbc.com/2024/11/07/chi…
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And who made the correct call @RoryStewartUK
It was @afneil
Rory Stewart@RoryStewartUK
Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
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To quote "The maths doesn't work for the DEMs". All about the early voting.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸 Democrats fall 1.7M votes behind in swing states early voting, with rural voters—especially women—surpassing expectations by 300K.
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Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
Below are the R minus D early vote deltas in swing states before tomorrow.
Republican turnout on election day is usually much higher than Democrat, so any state currently leaning R in early voting is very likely to side with Trump.
Pennsylvania, while still leaning D, has a massive turnout on Election Day. If the same number vote in person for Trump this time vs last, he will win by ~500k votes (landslide).
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Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
1/8
SCMP: "Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on provincial leaders to be patient about the pace of economic reforms, cautioned them against trying to solve problems hastily, and urged them to break down the fences of...
sc.mp/fvvpi?utm_sour… via @scmpnews
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Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
In 1910, Teddy Roosevelt met Emperor Franz Joseph I
Teddy asked him to explain his job, and the Emperor simply replied:
"The idea of my office is to protect my people from their politicians."
It warms the heart to see His Majesty King Felipe VI carrying on this great tradition
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Nicholas Glinsman รีทวีตแล้ว
A class in why the familial power of monarchy endures and works. It was fascinating to see the regal dignity personal courage & admirable grace under pressure of Felipe VI King of Spain visiting the enraged heartbroken people of Valencia …while the head of government Sanchez fled ignobly. Character is all
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@dampedspring Pleasure Andy. It is an important piece, and I do think it should be highlighted. People don't under the critical nature of Thursday's FOMC - it could have greater implications than the election
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@nglinsman Thanks Nick coming from you that's a great compliment
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Brilliant and on point write-up by Andy @dampedspring -
A must-read - this FOMC meeting could end up being more consequential for the real economy than the election
Andy Constan@dampedspring
Given the bond market move over the last days and weeks, The Fed is being warned that they can "lose the long end". In this free DSR I describe what is happening in the bond market, why, what the risk may be and what the Fed "should do". Will they? 🤷♂️ dampedspring.com/wp-content/upl…
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@BlacklionCTA @dampedspring The original Fed policy error has been a failure to recognize that the monetary policy transmission mechanism has changed since Covid, now depending on financial market conditions and not real short-term rates, my sense is that they will continue to think this way
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@nglinsman @dampedspring It's top shelf work, typical of his firm. The question is if/how Powell can do what is needed without admitting a sizeable error at lost FOMC. Humility, transparency, and repentance are not central bank hallmarks.
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Quincy Jones, music producer, dies aged 91 RIP oh great one
thetimes.com/article/0048aa…
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A guy selling an ETF tells you to buy the ETF. Fucking shocker. 🤣
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
VanEck has said that Bitcoin will be worth $3 million and be used as a global reserve asset by 2050.
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