Actress Molly Ringwald warns Trump supporters that they'll be found guilty of treason once he leaves office
“That is what’s going to happen. You should not support what is going on... You are going to be seen as a collaborationist.”
Thoughts?
President Trump just BLASTED the passing of the Democrats' Virginia gerrymandering proposal as "RIGGED," pointing out the "deceptive" and ILLEGAL referendum language used on the ballot, which clearly violates VA state law.
This proposal needs to be overturned.
On March 31st, I titled my post “History May not Repeat Itself but it often does Rhyme.” In 1997 due to the Asian currency crisis and in 1998 due to the Russian bond default, the S&P despite having an intra-year drawdown of 11% and 19% respectively, finished the year up 31% and 27%. This was in year 3 and 4 of the internet infrastructure buildout. My view was 2026, which was year 4 of the AI buildout, would also see a solid rebound especially given a war can get walked back versus the structural issues in 97/98. In addition, Agentic AI was ramping which required 10-100x more tokens versus Chat-based AI.
After a 9% intra-year drawdown from 1/27-3/30, the S&P has now rebounded 12% with just one down day over the past 13 trading sessions as the war with Iran heads to a conclusion. It took just 11 trading days for the S&P RSI to go from oversold to overbought which is the fastest since 1982.
The Nasdaq has been even more impressive with a 13 consecutive day winning streak over which it gained 18%. This is the longest streak since 12 consecutive days of gains in 1992 with a gain of 16% for perspective.
Future positives include a new Chairman of the Fed likely by mid-May who was chosen largely due to his preference to cut rates and continue the easy money policies that have fueled this market over the past 3 years. In addition, the AI infrastructure buildout seems to be taking another step function higher with the emergence of Agentic AI earlier this year fueling token production which requires more hardware.
But first comes the meat of earnings. There was lackluster stock performance last week by important tech stocks which reported earnings such as $ASML (-1%), $TSM (flat) and $NFLX (-6%). In addition, their were mixed results by the big banks which reported this past week such as $WFC -5% but $C +6%. But despite this, the S&P financials sector as a whole still gained 3% with much better results seen in the S&P (+5%), Nasdaq (+7%), R2K (+6%) and Magnificent 7 (+9%.)
A 13% decline in WTI last week to $84 on positive Iran headlines was the major catalyst of the market rally. Having said that, it was in the mid-$60s before the war started and the S&P is at all-time record highs. Looking to what the market is discounting looking forward, the 12 month futures contract is about $71 and was down 3% last week but it was in the low-$60s prior to the war.
10 year treasury yields also seem to reflect the higher oil prices. They were close to 4.0% before the Iran war and while down from their highs of closer to 4.5% they are still around 4.25%.
Finally, the S&P is technically overbought as noted earlier due to the speed and gains during this 13 day rally.
As a result of the above factors of: 1) higher oil, 2) higher bond yields and 3) overbought technicals with the market at all-time record highs, the near-term risk versus reward in my opinion is not great. I am expecting a minor pullback. A sell the news reaction to the final settlement around Iran or further angst around the opening of the Strait and under what terms could easily do this as well especially if oil does not come down further. But I would use a minor pull-back to add exposure. During 1997/98 following those macro scares during the internet buildout, after the prior losses were recouped and the market went to new highs, the pullbacks were contained to around 5%.
All the best in the week ahead.
I think after the market recovering this month and setting up for a parabolic rally, many will believe we are at the START of a new bull market
And that is the perfect scenario for what’s next
‘The seasonal weakness won’t come’
‘We are at the START of a bull market’
‘The final parabolic rally didn’t come’
‘There will be no market correction’
My message is clear now:
If there is a parabolic run AFTER Earnings season is over
It is the final rally and the last indication that the bull market is coming to an end.
Best case scenario is that the market runs until the end of September
We are only focusing on positions that have CRASHED already and below their 200 WMA now
Oil up 87% for the year... will be hard to contain this decline now that the president gave us a mind-boggling misdirection play.. Remember we don't have any instances of oil being up 100% and the market NOT being down 20%. So here we go again...
@jimcramer The war isn’t over. Pulling out while leaving the straight closed is like leaving an Eagles game early with the score tied at the two minute warning.
@TuckerCarlson This is a religious war for Iran. These religious zealots want to hurt us monetarily at all costs. Houthi’s intervening in the Red Sea is imminent. Boots on the ground will be deployed sometime this weekend. There is no way this conflict is rectified in five or six weeks.
Lawmakers are introducing a bill to ban Congress and the president from prediction market trading.
The ban would also include: Lawmakers' dependents and spouses, senior congressional staff, political appointees, the VP & senior executive branch employees, per POLITICO
Comedy: not just jokes — a surprisingly powerful tool for connection, perspective and tackling tough topics.
Turns out laughing is serious business. today.usc.edu/the-serious-po…
$HIMS is going to make an ATH again above $72
$OSCR is going to $45
$ZETA is going to $100
$UNH is going back to $600
$NVO is going to $100
$ETH is going to $9000
$BABA & $BIDU will both double from here.
$ASTS is going to be one of the biggest companies in the world
$ADUR will 5 X from here
That’s all you need.