Ray Fleming

@NewLeibniz @WKCosmo Kinney is full of sh*t. To begin with Einstein's idea that space has dimensions and clocks by itself is nonphysical nonsense, as there is no evidence for it. Without dimensions space cannot expand, contract, or curve. Inflation theory is fiction not physics.

#physics Everybody knows that all the matter in the universe was once compressed into an infinitesimally small egg-shaped point that exploded and started the universe, right? Well, no. @Wkcosmo explains why. #scicomm has lots of accounts, but Kinney might be the best teacher 👍🤓

Alexander Unzicker shows how the Hubble cosmological redshift is a consequence of general relativity interactions between light and matter. It has nothing to do with expansion. I did a video about this last year. youtu.be/TGpjGVNVYEg?si…

@POTUS Gaza, a Palestinian statelet, is a terrorist state filled with people who support terrorism and genocide. It is one definition of insanity to think you can repeat an experiment and get a different result.

We pray for the Israeli and Palestinian lives taken, and the grieving families left behind. My job isn’t done until we’ve worked to build an enduring peace with two states for two peoples.

@ianbremmer I could see China's share of US imports dipping to around 5% within the next 5 years as the US continues to derisk.

@ianbremmer The effects of near-shoring are accelerating and China's exports to the US could fall by another $100 billion in 2024 giving China around a 10.5% share of US imports down from the peak of 21.6% in 2017. By 2025 China's share should dip below 10%.

usa buying more from mexico than china for the first time in two decades (!)

@mrbcyber @YahooFinance Chinese real estate fell 16% and makes up 27% of GDP as commonly reported, so real estate is responsible for a ~4% drop in GDP. Exports are another ~1%. There is no significant investment increase elsewhere. Then add the Yuan falling 4% for a total 9% GDP drop in USD terms.

A quarter of China's GDP is in property and virtually every public or listed Chinese developer is currently in default finance.yahoo.com/news/china-fac… via @YahooFinance

@fuxianyi China's local and central governments combined to sell around 1.5 trillion Yuan in bonds in January and will need to sell 1.5 to 3 trillion a month to refinance old debt and fund government. That does not leave much money for buying stocks.

中国股市一直低迷，持续在3000点。我总感觉与私人消费只占GDP的37%有关（国际社会占50-70%），但缺乏中间环节的依据。宏观经济不好，企业赚不到钱，股市当然不好。但我需要有相关的量化指标。各位有什么看法？

@Byron_Wan Something has to break within the next 5 years.

@Byron_Wan Laoman shows in this graph that China's internal debt grew by 34T Yuan ($4.7T USD) to 343T($48T) in 2023. At the 10.6% per year rate it will be 380T($53T) in 2024, 420T($58.5T) in 2025, and 700T($97.5T) in 2030, over $100T USD with foreign debt at current the exchange rate.

Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and a former IMF official in charge of China: "The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining.” asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-…

@Jkylebass @laomanpindao put out a video on China's debt problem in Chinese, but the graphs are still interesting. youtu.be/BSLrgS2aNJs?si…

So much for ‘The East is Rising, The West is Declining” (东升西降) narrative. China’s core is collapsing (real estate), banking system is in crisis, local government debt is in default (a $13T usd equivalent market), youth unemployment is in crisis, and is in population decline.

@IndoPac_Info 150m excess homes in China is nonsense as an official report stated China has almost 600 million residential buildings including large apartment buildings. Individual family units are estimated to be over 1.5 billion. So there are probably 1 billion or more too many.

@Jkylebass Chinese economist Laoman, from 2008, calculated using Chinese data that China's GDP is only $13 trillion USD and fell around 9% in USD terms in 2023. At that GDP China's debt to GDP ratio is closer to 400% than 300%. And with more trustworthy data it is likely much worse.

@igorsushko Hitting Volgograd refinery could take another 250,000 barrels per day off-line after 200,000+ at Tuapse. In the next couple months Ukraine could take another 1.5 million barrels a day of Russian refining capacity off-line and hurt Russian logistics and exports.

💥 Russia: Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike on the largest oil refinery in the Southern Federal District of Russia - Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd. Massive fire happening now.

@fuxianyi If India follows the lower UN projections as is typical, its workforce will peak in around 20 years so India has a short window of opportunity for GDP growth. But women's workforce participation rate is low, so its workforce won't pass China's peak of around 800 million.

崔天凯近日访美，在亚洲学会说："希望印度超过中国成为世界第二经济体，这样美国将聚焦于印度而放过中国。"youtube.com/watch?v=Aufh-b… 我在2007年、2013年《大国空巢》以及2016年接受《纽约时报》采访，认为日韩台是短跑，中国是超短跑，印度和美国是长跑；能挑战中年美国的是青年印度，而不是老年中国。

The Philippines needs to invest in some drones like this for when the time comes. Actually their banca boats might work in a surprise attack.

@RonFilipkowski Tom Cotton asked the wrong question. Companies in The Communist China are required to have a CCP representative. Since TikTok has a Chinese parent company they probably have one or more high level executives who are communist party members. Cotton should have asked who it is.

Tom Cotton asking a Singaporean if he belongs to the Chinese Communist Party is like asking a Scot if they root for England in the World Cup.

The pro-terrorist antisemitic wing of the US congress is smaller than I imagined. Now if we can shrink the pro-Russia fascist wing of congress.

China's excess manufacturing capacity will lead to worldwide deflation unless countries implement appropriate tariffs on all goods made in The Communist China.

@visegrad24 In the 1980s a friend of mine was from Imperial Beach, California and there was a steady stream of migrants simply walking up the beach after swimming around the fence. Drugs were run by boat. Immigration on the US southern border is nothing new.

Migrant boat makes it to Windansea beach in La Jolla, California Police arrive on the scene, but not in numbers large enough to stop the migrants from running into the neighborhood These “ghost landings” are a common sight in Europe, but new in the U.S.

@globaltimesnews Wang Yi is lying. Not only is The Communist China threatening to attack the country of Taiwan they are trying to forcibly annex islands belonging to Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia while also forcibly annexing parts of India, Bhutan, and Nepal.

China is willing to work with all countries to build a foundation of peace and security, strengthen friendly cooperation, walk the path of multilateralism together, and jointly build a future of development and prosperity, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said as he addressed the New Year Reception 2024 of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday.