Ricki

Is coal coming back? Gas-fired electricity costs in #EU have risen more than 50% since the #IranWar‌ began, adding over €2.5bn to the EU's fossil import bill in the first 10 days alone. That price spike is already mechanically pushing power producers toward #coal. Italy's industry minister has pushed to suspend the EU ETS while under review, and politically the pressure is mounting — EU started 2026 with gas storage at 46 bcm, compared to 60 bcm in 2025 and 77 bcm in 2024. The economic threshold matters precisely. With ETS #carbon allowances running around €70–83/ton and rising, coal only becomes sustainably competitive if #gas stays structurally above ~€40/MWh and ETS prices are capped or suspended. When gas becomes expensive, producers switch to coal, increasing emissions and therefore demand for carbon allowances, which in turn pushes ETS prices higher. On coal exporters, the power balance shifts materially toward #Australia and #Indonesia, whose seaborne thermal coal routes via the Indian Ocean and Cape of Good Hope bypass #Hormuz entirely. #Russia, while a major supplier, faces continued sanctions-related restrictions. #Colombia gains relevance for Atlantic European markets. #IEA models suggest that 2–3 years of significant coal rebound at 2022-peak levels would add roughly 3–5 Gt of cumulative CO₂ — equivalent to 6–12 months of global industrial output — permanently widening the gap to the Paris 1.5°C trajectory. Energy crises historically do both — they trigger short-term fossil regression and long-term clean acceleration. The 1973 #oil shock produced decades of nuclear and efficiency investment. The 2022 gas crisis produced the fastest renewable build in EU history.