International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions

2.7K posts

International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions

@sanctionsgroup

International Expert Group is a leading platform for promoting sanctions against Russia. Working papers, comments, and statements.

เข้าร่วม Mart 2022

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦@evgen1232007·1d

Wow...the balance in the treasury accounts has dropped to 3.840 trillion. THAT'S THE LOWEST IN 3 YEARS!!!! It's noteworthy that in December the balance was 12 trillion rubles, and now it's 3.84 trillion!!!!!

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺@vladvlas·6 Nis

so what we see in a 2026 Shahed UAV STMicroelectronics 30th week of 2025 Analog Devices 30th week of 2025 (if not a conterfeit) Future Technology Devices International Ltd. 20th week of 2025 Infineon Technologies 19th week of 2025 various Chinese parts of 2026-2025

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·20 Mar

exactly

Financial Times@FT

The jumps in the Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil price benchmarks actually understate the degree of dislocation, writes Alphaville's Robin Wigglesworth. Look at the long-term prices of Dubai and Omani oil to see the bigger picture: ft.trib.al/tTKXmCO

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo·20 Şub

The Russian oil taxes for February 2026 are out, they 6,12% higher than January 2026 but are 62,1% lower than February 2025. The slight increase from January is the average price for Urals in January ( which is used to calculate February taxes ) was 40,95 USD per barrel.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Janis Kluge@jakluge·4 Mar

Germany's intelligence service BND says Russia's federal budget deficit was actually 3.6% in 2025, not 2.6%. This was exactly my final estimate in early December, based on spending patterns of the past. If true, the deficit was probably hidden in other public budgets.

Janis Kluge@jakluge

Usually, 18% of Russian budget spending happens in December. This year, only 13% is left - if Russia wants to stay within its budget plan. Most likely, the plan will change. Historical patterns indicate total spending of 45 trillion and a deficit of 8 trillion (3.6% of GDP).

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺@vladvlas·12 Mar

CRP antenna for Shahed aka a 🇨🇳 antenna for harvest combines)))))

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·11 Mar

Russia’s federal budget deficit reached ₽3.45 trillion ($23.4bn) in Jan–Feb 2026 — over 90% of the full-year deficit target (₽3.79 trillion) already spent in just two months. The key driver: oil and gas revenues collapsed by 47% y/y, falling to ₽826bn.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·21 Şub

A comprehensive maritime services ban would also be a strong response to schemes designed to hide the origin of Russian oil — ship-to-ship transfers, reflagging, opaque intermediaries. Instead of chasing evasion tactics, we restrict capacity at its core.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·21 Şub

That would translate into roughly a 35% drop in budget revenues compared to 2025 — with further decline thereafter. For a war economy heavily dependent on oil income, this is a systemic shock.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·21 Şub

Russia’s economy and budget are in their most vulnerable state since the full-scale invasion. Yet the Kremlin keeps targeting civilian infrastructure and refuses serious negotiations. This is the moment to increase pressure — not ease it.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·9 Şub

))) what happens when he is sanctioned?

Peter Heine Nielsen@PHChess

FIDE President Dvorkovich cheering for Russian🇷🇺 athletes next to fans with Soviet shirt and flags at the winter olympics.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·9 Şub

Cement sales in Russia fell nearly 30% y/y in January — an all-time low. Cement production dropped by almost 10% in 2025. Even after seasonal adjustments, this points to serious trouble in construction. Demand has been falling since 2024, signalling a structural slowdown.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Janis Kluge@jakluge·21 Oca

Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions รีทวีตแล้ว

Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦@evgen1232007·21 Oca

In Russia, 1,020 trillion rub were spent to rescue state-owned banks. 2024 - 311 billion rub 2025 - 1020 billion rub Funding received: - VEB - 407 billion - Sberbank - 94 bil - VTB - 293 bil - Gazprombank - 196 bil - Sovcombank - 30 bil The banking system is collapsing

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·22 Oca

Russia’s car market shrank in value for the first time in a decade, despite rising prices for both new and used vehicles. In 2025, the passenger car market fell 7.8% to ₽13.8 tn — a clear indicator of sanctions-driven stress in the Russian economy.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·19 Oca

Now officially: Russia’s 2025 oil & gas budget revenues fell to ₽8.48 tn — 23.8% lower than in 2024, per the Finance Ministry. The problem: export volumes are unchanged. Time to go after volumes — a full maritime services ban.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·16 Oca

Bottom line: Stronger sanctions on Russian oil and LNG are geopolitically effective, legally feasible, and economically aligned with US interests — while directly reducing Russia’s capacity to fund the war.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·16 Oca

The same logic applies to Russian LNG. Russian LNG undermines new US projects like Plaquemines (LA) and Corpus Christi Stage III (TX). Sanctioning Russian LNG and accelerating Europe’s phase-out would secure markets for US LNG.

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International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions@sanctionsgroup·16 Oca

Recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are already having a tangible impact. The Urals discount widened sharply (≈$25–30/bbl range), while tanker freight and insurance costs increased, directly cutting Russia’s net export revenues.

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