Proto

I <3 @Kalshi

Today ended as expected

I've got two future tickets on Fitzpatrick to win The Players and Medvedev to win Indian Wells. What can go wrong

Today WE smoke the Sinner pack

GM, Danny and I couldn't find time for a pod this week. We will be back next though. Thoughts on #UFCVegas114 below: Vallejos 83%: Part of me wants to take Emmett but just can't really do it at his age and in clear regression. I do like this fight to extend though, expect it to be low volume. Give me the over and Vallejos decision. Robertson 75%: Maybe Lemos can duplicate the suarez fight and land more effective offense here. I doubt it though. Personally think Gil is more disciplined standing than any of Dern, Virna or Tatiana and should be able to safely find the clinch more often than not. Should be able to get her game going and win fairly comfortably imo. Delgado 72%: Round 1 is probably going to be hell for Fili. But if he gets through it i think he can work into the fight. Do think you have to give Delgado a fairly sizable advantage just given his youth and athleticism. But think the market is overpricing how often Delgado will finish fights at this level, like this to go long. Rahiki 75%: Dumb fight, Hardwick stinks. Sy 77%: Think there's prob some value on the Sy side, though likely passing. Hard for me to imagine Cutelaba having much grappling success. He's also at a cardio disadvantage and an output/footwork disadvantage. Feel Sy should be able to blunt Ion's offense fairly easy. Johnson 60%: Rough spot for johnson coming just 7 weeks after being viciously KO'd. Still though, he really should win this fight. He's giving away power and grappling edges, but i can't imagine Bruno holding him down. In the striking Johnson is just much bigger, longer and has far better pace and footwork. Think Silva has some upside but likely gets outworked. Myktybek Orolbai 75%: Curtis is old and seems to be rapidly regression. Orolbai is young and getting better. Think Orolbai gets his grappling going more often than not. Petrino 70%: If Asplund can keep this striking i can easily picture him winning on pace and pressure. Thing is there's a lot of tape that says he cannot do that, and on the ground Asplund looks horrific. Smith 75%: Smith's far taller, far longer, far faster, far more athletic, far younger, you get it. You could maybe drag this deep and tire Smith out, but idk i feel Smith's cardio has been improving. And ultimately i think the athleticism gap here is going to be pretty hard for You to close. Sousa 67%: Not a huge Sousa fan personally. Medium to low output, doesn't grapple well and has poor footwork. Having said that he is probably the better athlete than Oki and hits far harder. Couple that with Oki's tendency to fumble the bag and I have to think the price isn't too too far off. Anders 58%: Anders is old and probably regressing, but it's literally never Brad at this point. Brad is low volume, kinda fragile, has no stopping power and no grappling upside. That's a pretty horrific toolkit to begin with and even worse as you age. Think Anders is far more physical, has more finishing upside and all the grappling upside. Mesquita 67%: Have to give Mesquita an edge just off athleticism and her upside if she gets to top position. But honestly i don't think she's much of a prospect. She's 34, she can't strike at all, she has suspect cardio and isn't much of a wrestler. Rendon is pretty bottom of the barrel herself but she is the better striker and she comes from a grappling base. If she can stay alive early i think she can compete. Sosa 52%: Don't really rate Sosa much tbh. Only reason I give him a prefight edge is he is lethal early. He's very athletic and tends to come out firing. I could see him potentially icing Lacerda early in this fight. If he can't though, I'd expect Lacerda's body work and grappling to eventually get to him. In general I feel Lacerda's first two UFC performances are being pretty underrated by the market, i think he has a great shot to score the upset here. Rodriguez 62%: Only reason I don't have Piera higher is that she likely does lose round 3 at a big clip here, which significantly reduces her margin for error. But I do think she's simply just better than Hughes. Faster, harder hitter, better wrestler and more physicality. I like Piera to get it done. ML Bets: 3u Robertson -195 1.5u Anders +113 1u Lacerda +200 .5u Rendon +531 Total Bets: 1.74u Emmet/Vallejos over 3.5 rounds -107 1u Fili/Delgado over 2.5 rounds +180 Props: 1u Vallejos by decision +205 1u Rendon/Mesquita GTD +135 Best of luck!

@BetsandPicksMMA Francis Marshall > Francis Ngannou

1 fight in 3 years with the organization. Holy dud. The most hate I ever got on this app was a couple years ago talking about Francis. Might have to go re-visit some old threads

Drafting Saquon Barkley #2 overall set the Giants franchise back 8 years, and he is one of the best running backs I've ever seen. You have to be a moron to suggest they take Jeremiyah Love at #5 less than a decade later.

We’re having a blast over at @RoyalGroupBets

Like Bobby Green +300 here (I know it’s 2026)

Happy #UFCMexico Fight Day! Very chalky card, but should be a fun one. Percentages adnd bets below: Moreno 56% Martinez 72% Zellhuber 65% Chairez 67% Rodriguez 67% Luna 80% Gandra 78% Perez 57% Quinonez 90% Reyez 70% Kareckaite 65% Marshall 90% Pinas 70% Bets: 1.5u Kavanaugh +182 1u Bunes +272 1u Green +320 2.39u Rodriguez/Borjas over 1.5 -159 1.86u Zellhuber/Green over 2.5 -124 1.11u Luna/Pachecco over 1.5 -111 Best of luck everyone!

Quick story My closest friends and I have a foundation in honor of our friend Dennis who passed away. Brady Tkachuk always frequents my friends restaurant in Manasquan, NJ. My friend had told him about our foundation and that we were running our first fundraiser. Without hesitation Brady inserted himself and sent us a signed jersey to auction off. I cheered on USA Men’s Hockey a little harder today. Great honor and character. Only lamented by the celebration of Gaudreau in the aftermath. 🇺🇸

The odds were supposed to be the ridiculous subject of this tweet. But of course Scottie has overcome the 8 shots and is in position to Win.

Scottie Scheffler opened today’s Pebble Beach final round 8 strokes off the lead at 50/1. His pairing partners (also 8 strokes back) had odds of 625/1 and 1000/1.

Someone please tell Jacob Malkoun that I love him and he’s the reason I’m able to pay my bills #UFC325

@BetsandPicksMMA Never wrong, just early

All the years of betting Alex Perez just paid off #UFC324

🤔

2025 was a great year, but I’m confident 2026 will be even better. If you bet with a local bookie, let’s work together. If you bet through legal apps, let’s work together. If you bet at casinos whether it be at the counter or through kiosks, let’s work together. DMs open 🚀

At what point can we stop pretending Josh Allen is a great QB