subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn
175 posts

subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว

The 15 point US plan and the 10 point Iranian plan are BOTH not being agreed to yet.
THEY ARE THE BASE FOR TALKS - dumbfucks.
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --@GeromanAT
not many have understood that - because they are too stupid to read a simple statement:
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subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว

I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out.
At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof.
But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs.
This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through.
I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock.
Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon.
I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line.
#oott #iran
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subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว

You can't say "this thing isn't intelligent" while also saying "this thing is dangerous because it can just make things up."
If it were deterministic it would be safe, and useless.
A child has high generative capacity, but low constraint. This is why we don't give children weapons. But nobody says a child isn't "intelligent."
Systems that can hallucinate are operating in a generative regime, not a static one.
Hallucination is not evidence of lack of intelligence, it is evidence of a system operating in the same generative regime that intelligence requires.
It’s inconsistent to call something “not intelligent” while also attributing to it the kind of generative behavior that only intelligent systems exhibit.
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subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว

subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว
subhumannNn รีทวีตแล้ว

Another asymmetry with the West: at some point, with the supply chain disruption, the replacement cost of the bomb starts to exceed that of the target.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb@nntaleb
Asymmetric warfare is similar to tail risk. You hit 100 targets; they hit just one and you've lost.
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