Terrain

The world's peak population is just a few decades away. How can producers prepare for a not-so-distant future of fewer consumers? Find out in our new report series, "The Big Shrink," which researches #GlobalPopulation projections and the impact to U.S. #agriculture.👇 thebigshrink.terrainag.com

In our first Q2 2026 Quarterly Outlook reports, our analysts examine volatility in dairy markets, walnut breakevens, processing tomato prices, and a weaker #USDollar. 👇 Here's a preview of the report themes: 📈 #Walnuts: "The combination of price pressures and higher costs leads us to our topic of the day: margin and breakeven." 🥛 #Dairy: "Milk prices should be more favorable than previously expected. However, volatility will likely be high due to temporary shortages and surpluses in individual product markets, as well as spillover from global market movements." 🍅 #ProcessingTomatoes: "I believe we are early in another contractionary phase of the current cycle. While inventory levels are not as high in absolute terms as they were in 2017, they continue to increase." 💲#ExchangeRates: "I don’t believe the recent softness in the U.S. dollar on its own, though helpful, will be enough to significantly tip the scale for an export boon." 🔗 Read them all here: terrainag.com/series/quarter… @AgCountry @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr

Read the California edition of the report here: terrainag.com/insights/lower… Read the Midwest edition of the report here: terrainag.com/insights/calif…

"The surge in #biofuel production from 2021 to 2025 relied on steady demand from California, but further growth now requires caution. Producers should reassess their strategies as crop-based #RenewableDiesel faces increasing constraints within California’s compliance system." In a two-part report, our analyst Matt Woolf breaks down the reforms to California's #LowCarbonFuelStandard, and their ripple effects on California producers and processors as well as #soybean growers in the Midwest. 👇 Check out Matt's full analysis below (🔗links in the reply) .

Today we celebrate #farmers, who adapt through shifting markets, policy changes, weather risk and more. Who work every day to keep their operations, and #agriculture, moving forward. Happy #NationalAgDay! 🌾🚜 @AgCountry @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr

To understand where wine sales are headed, you have to start with the data. Dr. Chris Bitter has spent years analyzing wine and grape markets across the industry. At the Wine Sales Symposium, he’ll break down the key trends shaping both retail and direct-to-consumer wine sales. A must-attend session for wineries navigating today’s market. Register → buff.ly/LkQla80

✨ Economist Spotlight - Marc Rosenbohm 📈 Forecasting Focus: Crops, Input/Production Costs, #FarmPrograms 🌽 About Marc: Marc is Terrain’s senior grain and oilseed analyst. In addition to his experience in modeling, forecasts and scenario analysis for a wide range of crops, he brings first-hand knowledge of #farming after growing up on his family's corn, soybean and hog farm in northwest Missouri. Marc previously held research and economist positions at the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute and the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services in Columbia, Missouri. 1️⃣ One Market Factor He's Watching This Month: #InputCosts and crop area as we move into U.S. #SpringPlanting. 💼 Favorite Part of His Job: "Working with our brilliant team of economists and getting out to talk with #FarmCredit customers about their challenges and opportunities, and sharing our outlook for ag markets." 📊 Check out Marc's latest insights: terrainag.com/authors/marc-r… @AgCountry @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr

📉 Two weeks into the Iran war, global uncertainty is rippling through energy, input and commodity markets. In a new video, our Marc Rosenbohm looks at how the conflict is influencing margins for #corn and #soybeans. In addition to a breakdown of the war's effect on input and commodity prices, Marc shares 3 different margin scenarios for farmers resulting from the war, depending on their input and commodity pricing strategies. "Margins can move as fast as headlines," Marc states. "Stay focused on the math that works for your farm." ▶️ Watch the video below 👇 #CropInputs #Fertilizer #CropMargins #Farmers #Agriculture

ICYMI, our senior dairy economist, Ben Laine, joined @CoBank's lead dairy economist, Corey Geiger, on the @HoardsDairyman Podcast in late January for a deep dive on the dairy market outlook for 2026. Among the takeaways: 💲Higher international prices and a supply rebalancing are key to lifting U.S. milk prices, which have the most potential for improvement in the second half of 2026. 📈 Risk management and #BeefonDairy revenue will help make this a more manageable downturn for U.S. #DairyProducers. 🍽️ Dietary changes associated with the use of GLP-1 drugs are a big win for the dairy industry. 🍕 As the population ages — and we transition away from "peak pizza" years driven by a younger demographic — the #dairy industry needs to reimagine how it serves consumers. 👉 Read: "Prime Pizza Years, 2026 Milk Checks and More" for a full recap: terrainag.com/insights/prime… @AgCountry @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr #Cheese #ConsumerTrends #MilkMarkets #AgEconomics

🚜 The last few weeks of #farmcredit customer meetings have reinforced the increasing importance of #biofuels for #corn and #soybean demand. 🏭 Those conversations closely mirror what Matt Woolf and I explored in our recent #renewablediesel articles, which has become a critical pillar of U.S. #soybeanoil demand, influencing domestic #crush industry build out, crush pace, #soymeal / #soyoil stocks and local #basis for nearby #farmers. 🔗To read my full report on soybean impacts tied to renewable diesel production check out the link in the comments. 🎤 I also enjoyed discussing these dynamics with @michellerookag w/ @FarmJournal at #CommodityClassic, check out the full interview here: youtube.com/watch?v=8HR4Gl… 🏛️But the lack of federal policy clarity clearly has an impact - earlier this week #USDA reduced soybean oil use in biofuel production by over 5% or 800 million pounds in their March #WASDE update. 🗺️Understanding federal AND state policy, #feedstock substitutability, and how #logistics intersect will be key for navigating grain and oilseed markets ahead. 💬Looking forward to keeping these conversations going. @TerrainAg @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr @AgCountry @PioneerSeeds @HeinenBrothers #GrainMarkets #terraininsights #agriculture #CommodityMarkets #classic26 #AgEnergy #agmarkets

⏰ The March 13 deadline is fast approaching for #SpecialtyCrop growers who want to participate in the #USDA's Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers Program. 📉 An analysis by our Matt Woolf and Marc Rosenbohm finds that estimated losses for specialty crop farmers far exceed the $1 billion available through the program. 👉That makes participation especially important: Growers must report 2025 acreage to the USDA’s Farm Service Agency by March 13 to be eligible for payments. Read the full analysis for more details: terrainag.com/insights/speci… @AgCountry @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr #AgPolicy

As California #almond prices have risen in the past year, so have costs in nearly every category. This highlights the importance of knowing your break-even year and break-even price, whether establishing an orchard or farming an existing one. Read our Matt Woolf's Q1 Almond Outlook for an analysis that shows the lasting effect of costs on break-even year and price, and a better understanding of break-even strategy: terrainag.com/insights/crack… @AmericanAg #CaliforniaAgriculture #SpecialtyCrops

Markets Now @FarmJournal YouTube: Bree Baetz @TerrainAg discusses if #soybeans can push past $12 with the RVO levels announced and a #China deal. Will #China buy #corn and is that the best hope for $5 corn? @AgDayTV @USFarmReport #commodityclassic youtu.be/8HR4Glybdy4?si…

On my way to #CommodityClassic Lots to discuss on #grainmarkets, Spring acre battle, evolving #export demand and #biofuel policy. If you’ll be there, let’s connect. I will be hanging out with the Farm Credit family @FCSAmerica @AmericanAg @AgCountry @FrontierFarmCr booth #1363 on Thursday Feb. 26.

The #USDA released its first look at the 2026/27 supply & demand forecast for U.S. #corn, #soybeans and #wheat — and our outlook tells a slightly different story. 👇 In comparison, our early 2026/27 grain outlook leans toward slightly higher supplies but also higher demand for these three commodities, with slightly better prices. 📈 Bottom line: Record domestic corn supplies, delayed biofuel clarity, and uncertainty in export demand for soybeans in 2025/26 all lead to larger carryover supplies, causing headwinds in 2026/27. 🔗Our early grain outlook details where we differ from the USDA, and why: terrainag.com/insights/plant… What, if anything, surprised you about the USDA's first look? #AgOutlook26

✨ Economist Spotlight - Ben Laine 📈 Forecasting Focus: Dairy commodities ⛰️ About Ben: In his role as Terrain’s senior dairy analyst, Ben enjoys conducting research to support his price forecasts and #EconomicOutlooks. He likes to experiment with quantitative models, consider anecdotal evidence from people throughout the industry, and examine macroeconomic drivers beyond dairy that impact the markets. Ben's research has spanned the dairy supply chain, demographic shifts, consumer trends, methane reduction and export markets. When he doesn't have an Excel spreadsheet open, Ben enjoys exploring the outdoors in #Denver with his family, going to the mountains whenever possible. 1️⃣ One Market Factor He's Watching This Month: The shift in traditional eating patterns due to GLP-1 drugs and macroeconomic factors such as inflation and unemployment, which can alter purchasing patterns. "These are causing a mismatch between supply and demand that is leading to a lot of volatility in #DairyMarkets." 💼 Favorite Part of His Job: "The never-ending opportunities to learn. I didn’t grow up in #agriculture — and I try to use that outside perspective to my advantage — but I love visiting farms and seeing all the innovation and ingenuity. I’ve never left a farm without learning something new." 📊 Check out Ben's latest insights here: terrainag.com/authors/ben-la… @AgCountry @AmericanAg @FCSAmerica @FrontierFarmCr

"I remain bullish on #farmland over the long term. As a finite asset with strong demand and a track record of historically stable returns, farmland continues to offer compelling value." Our Matt Erickson shared his perspective on what's ahead for U.S. #agriculture in 2026, especially for farmland owners, in an interview with @MGWLand’s Farmland Seasons publication. 🔎Read more of the outlook here: terrainag.com/insights/trend… #AgInvesting #LandValues