Trina Cerdenia

US equities now above level before the war. What's the strongest financial market in Asia? Singapore. The MAS also tightened today. Why? Well, GDP is resilient even if slowing and inflationary pressures rising. While Singapore is losing via terms of trade, it's gaining in capital flows. It is considered a safe haven in Asia for many reasons.

Applying game theory lessons… > Trump slams NATO allies over refusal to join the war in the Strait of Hormuz > Trump is making it clear that the world doesn’t want to help the US fight the war (bully testing allies’ loyalty stage). PH says we don’t have the capacity to help > When inflation hits everyone else, allies who refused to help the US in this war will knock on US doors for help (because they have US & Venezuela oil). US will have reason to refuse aid. > Desperation for US help = countries bargain with US. Variations of “we’ll give you whatever you want, just please help us.” > America is “great” again (the main goal) Kawawa Pinas in the process kasi wala tayong sariling oil (we do, but it’s so negligible and we don’t have refineries that can process locally discovered oil)

Applying game theory lessons… > Trump slams NATO allies over refusal to join the war in the Strait of Hormuz > Trump is making it clear that the world doesn’t want to help the US fight the war (bully testing allies’ loyalty stage). PH says we don’t have the capacity to help > When inflation hits everyone else, allies who refused to help the US in this war will knock on US doors for help (because they have US & Venezuela oil). US will have reason to refuse aid. > Desperation for US help = countries bargain with US. Variations of “we’ll give you whatever you want, just please help us.” > America is “great” again (the main goal) Kawawa Pinas in the process kasi wala tayong sariling oil (we do, but it’s so negligible and we don’t have refineries that can process locally discovered oil)

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

BREAKING: Iran responds to President Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened "within 48 hours." Iran's response: 1. Iran will "completely close" the Strait of Hormuz 2. Iran will hit “vital” infrastructure in the Middle East 3. This includes energy, IT, and water desalination facilities 4. Iran’s senior military commander says the country’s military strategy has shifted from defensive to offensive 5. Iranian officials say the country has enough reserves of essential goods to last for up to one year Trump's deadline has 33 hours remaining.

Powell: "The thing a good number of people on the committee are concerned about is the very very low level of job creation. If you adjust what has been the trend job creation over the past 6 months for what we think is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively there is 0 net job creation in the private sector"