ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
If you don't know the business, know your stop loss.
If you know the business, don't need the stop loss.
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Antifragile Thinking
29K posts
Antifragile Thinking
@unseenvalue
Playing for the unseen upside of randomness, volatility, and variability | Author: Framing Business Uncertainty https://t.co/OjXDH3G4is
Greener outside of London เข้าร่วม Kasım 2016
259 กำลังติดตาม154K ผู้ติดตาม
Trading at a mid-teens EV/EBITDA multiple, this high-margin, strong-balance-sheet niche chemicals player is set to return to growth from Q4 FY26, with momentum building through FY27 and beyond.
I expect ~20% sales CAGR from here. Invested. Biased!!
antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/winning-with…
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This is an excellent question (challenging my views) on CDMO. Such questions help me think better. Thanks for asking ...
open.substack.com/pub/antifragil…
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Walk the talk ...
No stop-loss. I know what I own and why I own it. Hold fearless, skin thick as a crocodile's.
Antifragile Thinking@unseenvalue
If you don't know the business, know your stop loss. If you know the business, don't need the stop loss.
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How to Identify the Leader of the Next Bull Phase?
Focus on these 2 simple indicators:
1. Look for stocks that move sideways or show only minor corrections when the broader market is in turmoil
2. Identify stocks that swiftly make new highs as soon as sentiments turn positive
Highest conviction? CDMO/Complex Chemicals (high gross and EBITDA margins as a simple test)
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Expect plenty of winners in the small and micro spaces. Don’t miss the chance. Sitting on cash in 2025 was painful, and not deploying it now might just become next year’s regret.
Zafar Shaikh@InvesysCapital
#Smallcap100 in USD terms is at major breakout retest zone . Hope market puts in bottom in next few weeks which may not be visited again for years.
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Natural, whole foods only. Lifestyle is your medicine. Atomic Habits is a great book for wealth and health alike!
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Sure, Claude will conveniently buy up all the cars, perfumes, jewellery, home improvement stuff, and other ‘nice to have’ items sitting in inventory and probably go ahead and place advance orders for the next few years while it’s at it. Long live jobless consumption!
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All successful complex chemical CDMO companies that scale into commercial manufacturing eventually reach gross margins close to or above 60%. That’s real execution, not just talk.
#Acutaas Chemicals
Biased view? Maybe. No recommendation.
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While an end to current conflicts may ease immediate pressures and influence the pace of decision-making, it is unlikely to reverse this broader shift. The strategic importance of energy security will endure beyond short-term cycles in markets or geopolitics.
antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/why-this-ene…
Antifragile Thinking@unseenvalue
Imagine a company built to survive energy shocks… and benefit from them. It mixes old, reliable assets with small bets in new tech and renewables… creating optionality most lack. The way it navigates uncertainty is a masterclass in antifragility… Volatility isn’t a threat; it’s an opportunity here :) Detailed note to follow on my Substack channel.
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Up 11% today and 23% in just 10 days; all this amid rising chaos and disorder; the best time to accumulate is deep pessimism, and the best time to switch, trim, or exit is deep optimism (inversion principle). Deep optimism in 2028 or 2029? Let’s see.
Antifragile Thinking@unseenvalue
Why select micro-caps are a goldmine today, not just in chemicals but across sectors. Taleb’s frame: ‘x’ is not f(x) -- applies to macro, geopolitics, and microeconomics. antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/net-cash-and…
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Antifragile Thinking รีทวีตแล้ว
Many claim to read books; very few remember them; fewer implement the learning; that’s why most never see a 100 bagger or a sustained 20% compounding over many years.
The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks 👇
Antifragile Thinking@unseenvalue
Last few days left to deploy cash or regret.
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Imagine a company built to survive energy shocks… and benefit from them. It mixes old, reliable assets with small bets in new tech and renewables… creating optionality most lack. The way it navigates uncertainty is a masterclass in antifragility… Volatility isn’t a threat; it’s an opportunity here :)
Detailed note to follow on my Substack channel.
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All companies going for IPO or listed ones indulging in guidance and predictions game, must read this all time classic.
BookNote@BookNoteApp
5) The Hard Thing About Hard Things by Ben Horowitz
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A stock returning to its price from 10 years ago isn’t “flat” it’s down ~80% when you factor a 15% opportunity cost.
Raise the hurdle to 18%, and the loss is ~86%.
Time isn’t neutral.
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Title: RPG Life: Thinking Slow, Compounding Fast
This was a paid/premium post. Now making is free to access. Happy weekend!
#RPGLife became a 30-bagger in 10 years. I am no longer invested.
antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/rpg-life-thi…
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Another example of why 'x' is never same as 'f(x)'
Neuland became a 300 bagger over 20 years, but that's just 'x'; Neuland crashed 80% and more once and crashed 60-70% a few times, but that's 'x' as well.
'f(x)' is the allocation someone made and not the % gain (or fall). It's your exposure that determines your fate and not the % rise or the % fall over 20 years.
Pared exposure in Neuland as explained here:
antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/neulands-fra…
Antifragile Thinking@unseenvalue
Why select micro-caps are a goldmine today, not just in chemicals but across sectors. Taleb’s frame: ‘x’ is not f(x) -- applies to macro, geopolitics, and microeconomics. antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/net-cash-and…
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March has been a brutal month for stocks; punters were buying Gold for all the fundamental reasons :)
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Just 4, Raghu? Make it 40 and go fully generic :)
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⚠️ Important: A fraudulent account is posing as me and asking for money. This is a scam. I do not solicit funds privately. Please do not engage and report the account, and rely only on my official Substack for updates.
The correct surname spelling is "poor" – Kapoor ... :)
These are the only two payment options available. Prices are fixed until 31 March 2026. Anyone who joins before 31 Mar '26 will keep these renewal rates indefinitely ... yes, no increases, ever!
Monthly:
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Annual:
buy.stripe.com/28E6oG0SJfxebX…
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