World War Bitcoin
6.8K posts
@WWBitcoin That level looks solid but retest before move makes sense honestly
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$ZBCN looks clean. High confidence that the level highlighted in the previous tweet will have been a bottom, but I'm expecting another test of that level over the next few months.
I'll be accumulating this pretty heavily when we see it at lower levels. #Zebec
World War Bitcoin@WWBitcoin
$ZBCN Has finally ground itself down to an attractive level and filled a major gap. If it holds support and can break through major trendline resistance, it would be a strong buy.
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@WWBitcoin You are assuming the halving cycle are what guides Bitcoins price rather than the more reliable cycles that have shown to guide it.
Be careful betting on one theory….
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Decided to make a quick vid to flesh out some more thoughts on this.
youtu.be/hFbaYNAVm84
YouTube
World War Bitcoin@WWBitcoin
This is a VERY important chart to consider. Let me share a few thoughts. First, a slightly contrarian take. I think this time is going to be a little bit different. 10 years from now, we'll see better than a 2% return in the S&P 500. Why? Because our mindset towards sitting in cash had a fundamental shift after the great debasement of 2020. Who is going to be willing to ride this out in cash for the next 10 years? But..... Second point, our expectation for returns in the S&P 500 should be that we would not expect those returns to keep up with inflation. The purchasing power of the dollar value of our stocks will be less ten years from now than today. With that in mind..... Third point, something has to increase in its dollar valuation over the next decade. And there's an obvious answer... commodities. You can clearly see seasons in which stocks run hard and then there's a prolonged rotation to commodities. The 2000s was a lost decade for stocks. Commodities ran hard until their 2012 peak. The 70s was also a lost decade for stocks. Commodities had a major run. We're likely about 25-35% of the way through a run in commodities where stocks sit on the sidelines. The peak for the S&P 500 in its gold valuation was November of 2021. Same for the NASDAQ. The peak for the Dow Jones in its gold valuation was 2018. That doesn't mean that it will be a straight line up for gold, and we're actually due for a dead cat bounce for stocks measured in gold, but metals and other commodities will likely be a superior play for the next several years.
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@defi_dude Yeah I know. I mentioned a time frame in the video.
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This is a VERY important chart to consider. Let me share a few thoughts.
First, a slightly contrarian take. I think this time is going to be a little bit different. 10 years from now, we'll see better than a 2% return in the S&P 500. Why? Because our mindset towards sitting in cash had a fundamental shift after the great debasement of 2020. Who is going to be willing to ride this out in cash for the next 10 years? But.....
Second point, our expectation for returns in the S&P 500 should be that we would not expect those returns to keep up with inflation. The purchasing power of the dollar value of our stocks will be less ten years from now than today. With that in mind.....
Third point, something has to increase in its dollar valuation over the next decade. And there's an obvious answer... commodities. You can clearly see seasons in which stocks run hard and then there's a prolonged rotation to commodities. The 2000s was a lost decade for stocks. Commodities ran hard until their 2012 peak. The 70s was also a lost decade for stocks. Commodities had a major run.
We're likely about 25-35% of the way through a run in commodities where stocks sit on the sidelines. The peak for the S&P 500 in its gold valuation was November of 2021. Same for the NASDAQ. The peak for the Dow Jones in its gold valuation was 2018.
That doesn't mean that it will be a straight line up for gold, and we're actually due for a dead cat bounce for stocks measured in gold, but metals and other commodities will likely be a superior play for the next several years.
Patient Investor@patientinvestor
Howard Marks: "When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE!"
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The Finishing Move of the Bitcoin Bear Market That's Will Never Come
youtu.be/w7WVwc0l1TU
YouTube
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1247 days from 2013 peak to a new ATH
1066 days from 2017 peak to a new ATH
851 days from 2021 peak to a new ATH.
How many days from 2025 peak to a new ATH? 650 or so?
Some time down the line, this trend is going to make 4 year cycles awfully confusing.
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@WWBitcoin To be honest he has been bang on for years just not exact with time frames. Whenever he has said we are getting a mega crash it has happened
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It is now day 13 since this tweet was made calling for #Bitcoin to drop by 40% in "the next 12 days."
I'm not at all making any declarations as to whether OP was right or wrong... he could still be right but with the wrong time frame. I was planning on reposting this when he initially made his claim no matter what happened. I appreciate the boldness to add a timeframe instead of some abstract "some time in the future" date.
I disagreed at the time and I still disagree. Let's give it a one week grace period though.
John@John102338
@WWBitcoin How can I be certain? Not only are we in a bear market and the 2022 fractal is playing out, check this: youtu.be/2l7m1eE6T8Q?si… Also worth noting, we had declining volume as price went up. It was a classic fakeout. We got it in the last death cross.We're dropping +40% in 12 days
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@bariksis TBF he's just going off of what steve said in the video he linked. It is a compelling argument based off imperfect information. I could see how an untrained eye could get sucked into something like that.
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@WWBitcoin That’s not an inveted hammer nor are the other ones you showed
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So many different comments can be made about this.
On one hand, the ground we stand on is shaky and we can all feel it as if the collapse of the fiat house of cards is imminent.
On the other hand, this is likely an absurd overreaction to excessive fear mongering by traditional media and by suckers on social media.
TFTC@TFTC21
The World Uncertainty Index just hit 105,000, the highest level in recorded history. Higher than Covid. Higher than 9/11. Higher than the Iraq War and the Global Financial Crisis combined.
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Do yourself a favor and filter your following out a bit in regards to where people think #Bitcoin is heading.
If they think we have already bottomed or we're bottoming soon, is it because they're a permabull? If so, they're probably not worth your time.
If they think we're bottoming in the fourth quarter of this year, are they providing any analysis as to why that's going to happen other than "fOuR yEaR cYcLe!1!1!" If so, great. If not, they're probably not worth your time.
If they think Bitcoin is going much lower than what the masses believe, is it because they're a permabear? If so, they're probably not worth your time. BUT... and this is a BIG but... there are multiple people I respect on this app who believe that Bitcoin's day of reckoning is here, and they're expecting a lower low in this bear market in comparison to 2022. I don't agree with them, but I'm absolutely NOT going to filter them out and create my own little bubble.
I know it's tempting to try to block the noise out and think that everything is always going to be sunshine and butterflies, but the absolute WORST thing you could do is put yourself in a position where you end up surprised by how the market performs.
Not a single scenario would surprise me and I'm mentally prepared for anything that would come my way. That's the best way to position yourself.
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Don't Call it Quantitative Easing, but That's Pretty Much What it Is
youtu.be/wXgRdqmWzno
YouTube
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