AnotherBioInvestor

$VRTX $ZLAB We finished up 9.71B$ for Povetacicept in US vs 42 million $ in China or about a 231x increase. And that is only the incremental value added for what was already an expectedly strong drug. China is China but… 0.5% of US? I‘m taking that r/r

Probably a tad early but with $VRTX up a cool 10-12B I guess that should be good for $ZLAB. Let´s see whether the market might allocate a gigantic premium of 50 or 100 mln $

Yeah that was 99% the net cash true-up as it was due March 6. Paid 7.6 cents, the initial agreement before the adjustment had a 8 cent window. Not crystal clear but looks like the pure net cash part paid out largely and the remainder of the ~23 cents should be tied to the tax reserve with timing being highly uncertain?

@AnotherBio Looks like LAVA CVR paid a bit Friday. You seeing it?

@given2tweet even though he is circling waggons? 😃

$PMVP barely a year of cash left. ATM inactive, no conference call, didn´t even PR their Cowen appearance and aren´t scheduled to appear anywhere. It´s happening, isn´t it?

dawns on me I maybe shouldn´t sell every betaville pump just because?

@anthonystaj Has not been a reliable criteria imo. Often times an active IR person was much more of a contra tbh. Not a good sign if they spend time with shmucks like us :)

@AnotherBio Hard to make money when you don't respond to inquiries or phone calls. Fade em

$OABI Small update on the chicken-cow-human antibodies. Unimpressive earnings but narrowing deficit implies they might make it to profitability without dilution (I think it´s mostly a function of 1402 success?). What piqued my interest in recent weeks was this transaction between TEVA/RPRX. It´s still early, but say they proceed to Ph3. Then RPRX will have paid 500 mln$ for "a royalty". Let´s say it´s 10% vs 3% for $OABI, will imply a NPV of at least 150mln$ or 50% of market cap today IF Teva hits the Ph2b / RPRX opts in. We´re not there yet of course, but it´s a very fresh catalyst imo that basically just surfaced that clearly in January when RPRX/TEVA struck the deal.

$XBI chop chop chop all day everyday. Not too unhappy about it, most stocks still doing their own thing and there´s something to do almost every day. In this kind of tape I simply try to generate a couple basis points of alpha a day and compound that. Trim winners slightly, reallocate to losers, rinse repeat.

$VTYX approved and about to close, $QIPT approved and closing soon as well. Both with 10%+ IRRs for whatever reason. Will have zero arbs /CVRs on after these two close, hasn´t been the case for a long time. 1 post mortem on VTYX: Was a teeny tiny bit riskier than initially thought, had a MAE on "any FDA clinical hold to last for >12 months", so maybe that´s why the options were juiced a bit to allow for >10% IRR.

My personal, nuanced take

6/x some more thoughts I excluded: - they have a very decent pipeline of wholly owned stuff and another success there can do a lot to the stock - Their development timeline of Zoci was insane - Their R&D costs in general are VERY reasonable compared to US peers - no crazy SBC - Great access to cheap china R&D I´m still excluding so much nuances, but I think most longs should be simple with 2 or three easy calculations, so no reason to bloat this

5/x Let´s smash some things together. I valued the sales at 2.5 times 2027 (year of Zoci-readout and my time horizon for the stock, consensus for 2027 is 635 mln). In the US, you get 2.5-4x multiples on peak. 2027 will be very far from any peak for ZLAB, so this is very conservative imo. Zoci numbers are a bit random and triangulated. Don´t think details matter here, it´s very clear that 17.XX is the wrong price! Zoci has a higher multiple since they own US-rights. My peak sales are also quite conservative (see Imdelltra) AND i completely ignore some other indications (NCEs). And yeah, I threw away a couple hundred millions in net cash. Pretty sure I´m getting some stuff wrong here but these are huge discrepancies. Long $ZLAB.

$ZLAB pretty complicated stock, but let´s make this easy to showcase how you get at least half the company for free. They have a portfolio of western drugs they are selling in China. The sales force is profitable, company is not due to ongoing R&D. Theoretically 3 buckets to value: 1) Balance sheet 2) Existing commercial products 3) Development pipeline quick thread 1/x, quicky valuation at the end in 5/x

@MACROVET888 Thanks for the input. Furoscix is getting the autoinjector in H2 2026, but yeah the advantage should be with the nasal spray still.

@AnotherBio $ESPR The reason Enbumyst is so interesting is that bumetanide is known for having much more predictable absorption than furosemide. Patients are much more likely to comply with a quick nasal spray than a 5-hour wearable pump that requires skin prep and needle insertion...

Just glancing at this thing. $ESPR bought Enbumyst today for 75mln (+ biobucks + royalties), competitor Furoscix is at >90 mln annualized 2 years after launch with a 5h infusion (wearable)! stock is -11 or basically the whole purchase price. I don´t know, this seems pretty sensible to me especially with the sales force overlap?

$TBPH