Brigham McCown

I think what is said here by Gen. Votel is wrong. I also CENTCOM doesnt really deal with tankers but perhaps USCG does have some experience with commercial shipping. Tankers are not that vulnerable and easy to destroy as some believe. Gen. Votel (ex-CENTCOM) in TWZ says: Tankers are "thin-hulled," strait is "two miles wide," mine hit = instant disabled ship + eco disaster. But realit says otherwise. Reality check: Modern tankers are DOUBLE-HULLED (mandated post-1989 Exxon Valdez via OPA 1990 + IMO rules, phased out single-hulls by 2015 US/international). Even before 1989: Tanker War proof (Operation Earnest Will 1987-88): First convoy, reflagged MV Bridgeton (VLCC) hits Iranian mine → ~50 m² hole, but keeps sailing to Kuwait under own power. US warships? They tucked in BEHIND the tanker for protection. Tankers shielded the Navy!!!!!! (Bridgeton kept going; multiple tankers survived similar hits while escorts took precautions.) USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) hit a bigger mine in 1988 → 15-20 ft hull hole, keel broken, engine room flooded/fire. Navy frigate nearly sank... but CREW saved her (towed/repaired later). Tankers? Even tougher due to size/buoyancy/compartments. Geography: Strait narrowest point ~21 miles (34 km) wide. TSS = 2-mile inbound + 2-mile outbound lanes + buffer (safety rule, not wall). Ships can maneuver outside lanes across miles of navigable water. Multiple "disabled" tankers won't cork a 20-mile passage. Real resilience example: MV Limburg (double-hull VLCC) 2002, Yemen suicide boat attack. 90k bbl spill, massive fire 36+ hrs, 1 dead/12 injured. Abandoned, towed, repaired in Dubai was renamed Maritime Jewel, sailed years more (until ~2018). - LNG carriers thinner-skinned/more vulnerable (vapor risks), but crude oil floats + buoyancy helps tankers.

We are in the middle of a major conflict with a country who has a history of state sponsored terrorism and we are not paying our TSA security folks at the airports. This is insane.

Good morning.

The irony is that this oil shock is very bearish for oil down the road because it is going to supercharge demand for EVs.

BREAKING: US Treasury eases oil sanctions on Iran, including permiting the sale of Iranian crude and refined products into the United States. Scott Bessent calls it a "narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea."

Just a reminder that in China, there is only energy addition, not an energy transition.