EuroAsiaSecurityForum

As defence industry cooperation moves to the centre of the UK-Japan quasi alliance, is it time to deepen our intelligence relationship? anglojapanalliance.com/2022/02/02/as-…

🇧🇳 exports petroleum products and fertiliser to 🇦🇺 . 🇦🇺 exports food and LNG to 🇸🇬 . 🇸🇬 exports refined products to 🇦🇺. It’s remarkable how many people still don’t understand how dependent on maritime communications this country is. But with every crisis it’s becoming clearer.

3 weeks in, and the US’s key Asian ally is negotiating with Washington’s enemy to secure safe transit of SoH because the US Navy can’t ensure passage for Japan’s merchant ships trapped in the Gulf. Tokyo has always maintained relations with Tehran, but still extraordinary.

I joined @CNN to discuss what it would take to get commercial shipping flowing more confidently through the Strait of Hormuz. It will need to be phased: first reduce Iran’s ability to threaten shipping by degrading C2, radar & strike systems. Then reassure industry through patrols, escorts, information-sharing & strategic communications — ideally as a coalition effort. Full segment available here edition.cnn.com/2026/03/20/wor… @DefenceUwa @LowyInstitute @NSC_ANU

62 years of destroying British national strategy, weak education of decision-makers, rise in popular history that focuses on sentimental nostalgic tosh, effective seablindness and the shattering of the relationship of the services to nation, and one another; what did you expect?

Russia's main TV channel is airing songs about how great life is without the internet. Getting even closer to North Korea.

🧵 Naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz are often discussed as a solution to tanker attacks — but in practice they are difficult to execute at scale. A short thread 1/

@globaltimesnews CCP media now classifies how sovereign states deploy their resources for defence within their own borders as ‘military expansion’. Beijing sounds more like Moscow every day.

🇯🇵 Japan has upheld peace for 80 years.But peace must not mean silence in the face of deliberate danger. 🇨🇳 A Chinese J-15 fighter locked its fire-control radar on a 🇯🇵 Japanese F-15J over international waters southeast of Okinawa.This is not “routine.” In global military doctrine, a radar lock is not a signal — it’s a prelude to firing.From the U.S. to Israel, every professional armed force knows:You never lock on unless you're ready to shoot. China now calls Japan’s reaction “slander.” But radar locks are provable facts, not narratives. And facts carry weight. 🇯🇵 Japan will not provoke.But Japan will not ignore. Deterrence means being prepared — in the air, in diplomacy, and in the eyes of the world. 🔗 Reuters: reuters.com/world/china/ch… 🔗 MOFA Statement: mofa.go.jp/press/release/… #F15J #J15 #RadarLock #PLA #China #Japan #MilitaryCommonSense #IndoPacific #Deterrence #PeaceThroughStrength #RulesBasedOrder

Japan🇯🇵must never lose the ability to decide its own security policy. That future must be prevented at all costs. NHK reported this morning that the Japan–China Director-General–level talks ended in a complete stalemate. Based on my experience as Japan’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defense, and as Special Advisor to PM Sanae Takaichi when she chaired the LDP Policy Research Council (Foreign Affairs, Defense, and the Game-Changer field), I would like to offer a clear view of the situation. ⸻ 1️⃣ Japan will not accept China’s demand for a “retraction.” PM Takaichi’s Diet statement was a standard, legally grounded assessment under Japan’s existing security laws. Japan rightly rejected Beijing’s demand for a withdrawal, while affirming that dialogue will continue. This is a calm and responsible stance for a sovereign nation. There is no need for unnecessary fear or panic. Japan is responding with composure. ⸻ 2️⃣ The trigger for this escalation was the post by the Chinese Consul-General in Osaka. This is where the situation began. ● The Consul-General’s post on X did not name PM Takaichi, but was unmistakably directed at her,containing extremely unsettling language that many interpreted as alluding to beheading. ● Such wording is unacceptable for any diplomat,and many regarded it as a de facto threat. ● It was, quite literally, an attempt to “set off a firecracker to stir chaos,” far outside normal diplomatic conduct. From there, China escalated step by step: (1) Urging Chinese citizens to avoid travel to or study in Japan (2) Delaying Japanese film releases (3) Canceling Japan-related cultural events (4) Expanding economic pressure—including a ban on Japanese seafood imports → These are not isolated incidents. They form a coordinated political warfare package aimed at pressuring Japan and shaping public perception. The Guardian’s analysis also highlights this pattern: 👉 theguardian.com/world/2025/nov… ⸻ 3️⃣ China is targeting the “person,” not the argument. Beijing stayed restrained when President Trump used far stronger language toward China. Yet it overreacted to PM Takaichi’s measured and legally grounded statement. Why? Because China seeks to target “Sanae Takaichi as a symbol,” attempting to unsettle Japan’s domestic security debate. ⸻ 4️⃣ The core issue: Can Japan continue to decide its own security policy? This is not merely a diplomatic dispute. It goes to the heart of Japan’s sovereignty: Can Japan continue to make its own security decisions—free from foreign pressure and influence operations? Attempts to shape or distort Japan’s security debate from outside violate the fundamental Principle of Non-Interference in international law. Japan must retain the sovereign right to determine its own future. ⸻ 5️⃣ In closing Speaking truthfully about security realities is not provocation. Refusing coercion is not escalation. Japan must continue to discuss its security calmly, responsibly, and with confidence. And together with the nations committed to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, I strongly hope Japan will remain a country that decides its own future with clarity and sovereignty. ARIGATO❤️ m(_ _)m Yasuhide Nakayama #Japan #China #Taiwan #Takaichi #Security #Diplomacy #PoliticalWarfare #IndoPacific #FOIP #NHK #Sovereignty #Democracy #JapanSeafoodBan #YasuhideNakayama

@iloveyatchan x.com/shetlerjones/s…

As Japan’s former State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Defense, and the Cabinet Office—and as Special Policy Advisor to PM Sanae Takaichi when she served as Chair of the LDP Policy Research Council (responsible for Foreign Affairs, National Defense, and the Game-Changing Field)—I’ve had the rare opportunity to witness how geopolitical narratives are shaped, distorted, and weaponized. Today, I feel a quiet responsibility to speak. There is a stark asymmetry in how China responds to global leaders: 🔹 When U.S. President Donald Trump referred to China as an “enemy,” labeled COVID-19 the “China Virus,” and called Xi Jinping a “dictator,” Beijing remained largely restrained. 🔹 When PM Takaichi made a measured, law-based comment—consistent with Japan’s existing security framework—stating that a military blockade of Taiwan could constitute a “situation threatening Japan’s survival,” China launched a targeted and disproportionate response. This is not about content. It’s about control. As The Guardian noted in its recent analysis, “China and Japan are in a war of words over Taiwan – what happens next?” → theguardian.com/world/2025/nov… Beijing avoids provoking actors like Trump because of risk. But it sees an opportunity in discrediting principled, strategic voices like Takaichi— to fracture Japan’s internal cohesion and weaken policy continuity. This is not traditional diplomacy. This is political warfare—designed to manipulate perception, sow doubt, and undermine confidence within democratic societies. Having worked at the core of Japan’s foreign and defense policymaking, I believe we must respond with clarity. Democracies must never allow their national security conversations to be hijacked by authoritarian outrage. We must not shrink from truth because it offends those who fear transparency. Speaking about security realities is not provocation. It is deterrence. It is responsibility. I write not in anger—but in conviction. Out of respect for democratic leadership, and for those who choose to lead with both clarity and courage. #Japan #Trump #Takaichi #Taiwan #China #Geopolitics #PoliticalWarfare #Security #Democracy #IndoPacific #Leadership

The only way PRC could think of to punish Japan is to isolate its own citizens.

The main thing standing in the way of cross strait relations is the CCP’s ugliness. Who’d want to be in one country with these guys?

Apparently PRC nationals’ safety and Japan’s social security only become an issue after Takaichi’s comment. 🤷🏻‍♂️

PRC tries to punish Japan but isolates its own people, first tourists now students studying abroad asia.nikkei.com/politics/inter… via @NikkeiAsia

How mini-lateral export control frameworks among key technology-supplying nations can put a slow puncture into Huawei’s ‘Spare Tyre’ of entities created to counter US sanctions. rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Takaichi’ assessment on Japan’s involvement in a war engaging US and China is not without risk, but may help avert a greater risk of PRC miscalculation. I see rising concern about ‘Chinese hubris’. NB, first Hubris, then miscalculation, finally nemesis. scmp.com/news/china/mil…

With Japan’s memory of the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe still fresh, this death threat from PRC Consul General in Osaka against his successor @takaichi_sanae will not be taken lightly.

@alessionaval If NATO is likely to be publicly divided over how to respond to this chain of events, you have a bigger issue already.

Bingo.

When Beijing wishes to exercise PLA transits through other countries' EEZs, it invokes high seas rights per UNCLOS (see EEZ regime referring back to Articles 88-115). Yet it denies the same standard for other militaries traversing PRC EEZs. This is just double standards.