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Updating pinned with more recent results for credibility in the sports betting space. Need the resume on hand when calling out some BS on here. These are just my P1 accs too 😉
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Pat 🧘♂️⚾️
6.8K posts
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️
@IIPatll
25 | @BlueprintLLC_ | @FTClan2k | @B4TheFame__ | Pretty decent at modeling sports
NY x NJ Sumali Haziran 2019
719 Sinusundan1.6K Mga Tagasunod
Adding…
Williams u5.5 +108 DK
Freeland u3.5 +124 DK
Burrows u5.5 -108 DK
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Schlittler, Severino, Freeland, Alcantara, Sale and Ragans opening lines all around expected. Tracking so far…
Ray u6.5 -150 DK
Gausman u5.5 +114 DK
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MLB Pitcher Strikeout Model Projections March 27
Typically, the best time to find value on K props is when they are first listed, so I'll try to post these as early as possible.
I'd recommend comparing the outs market once available as a gauge for whether the xBF are accurate.
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Luis Severino 6+ and 7+ alt Ks lines are worth taking at better than +400 and +900 here imo. DK offering +440 and +970 respectively at the moment fyi
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
MLB Pitcher Strikeout Model Projections March 27 Typically, the best time to find value on K props is when they are first listed, so I'll try to post these as early as possible. I'd recommend comparing the outs market once available as a gauge for whether the xBF are accurate.
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@shmotos_slips 2 in 2 days 😂. Brown ends up with a 41% K rate against a lineup that had low whiff rates against him previously
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Under Ks for righties vs the Mets might be a go to for this szn. This top 4 in their lineup is so tough to strike out
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FWIW, the average batters faced and k rate for starts made in March last year were 20.0 and .214. So far, my projections have averaged 21.4 and .247 respectively (it’s been mostly aces so far so these numbers should be a tick higher).
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Cam Schlittler for example went just 3.2 IP and 62 pitches in his last ST start (most he threw in ST). Is his next step 75 pitches? 80? 85? Would expect Yanks to hope he can get through 5 innings max which would put him around 20 BF
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Part 2
All 22 guys lined up to pitch on Thursday, sorted by expected K rate.
Batters faced is a bit difficult to project early on but it seems most guys are expected to pitch between 5-6 innings looking at the pitcher outs market, which would put them in the 20-23 BF range.
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
March 26 Strikeout Model Projections Part 1 With most of these guys having lines on FanDuel already, I'll post them early. Still working on the rest.
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@shmotos_slips Pretty sure I got the same exact odds lol. Can’t wait to tune in and see Webb strike out the side in the first
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Signed out vs signed in. Account was fine a couple days ago. This really just happen because of a handful of bets for opening day??? 😭
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Not even a single pitch thrown this season and FanDuel already hit me with limits…
GIF
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@nxtlvcky Would hope to typically see alt lines with good value only popping up for guys who’s over is worth betting in the first place (unlike these)
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@nxtlvcky Not bad. I played the Yoshi 8/Soriano 7 combo myself. Alt lines popping up with just a little bit of value because I implemented high variance into the distributions for pretty much everyone (I think that’s the appropriate approach for opening day)
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Let's see if I know how to read 🤓 risking .35u
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
Part 2 All 22 guys lined up to pitch on Thursday, sorted by expected K rate. Batters faced is a bit difficult to project early on but it seems most guys are expected to pitch between 5-6 innings looking at the pitcher outs market, which would put them in the 20-23 BF range.
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@shmotos_slips They got Webb with a 6.5 line. Might parlay those unders tbh. I already have multiple units on Webb u5.5 and Brown u6.5 tbh 😭
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@shmotos_slips I agree Angels K rate is considerably lower this year. I also think Brown regresses in K rate (30% 1st half vs 24% 2nd half last year). He also profiles as more of a good/great K guy rather than elite in that department. Ton of money came in for his over on exchanges 😬
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Not going to post plays like this much at all but just an example… Sanchez and Gilbert o/u lines aren’t worthwhile but their 10+ on DK aren’t bad value (my model has this at 2% chance of winning compared to 0.8% implied)
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@shmotos_slips Brown under vs the Angels my biggest edge of the day so you might think I’ve lost my mind.
He had 9 combined Ks in 2 starts against them last year tho so that’s playing a factor for me
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FD/DK o/u lines with >5% edge I’m tracking…
Skenes u6.5 -122
Crochet u7.5 -120
Abbott u4.5 +120
Eovaldi u5.5 -108
Smith u4.5 -106
Brown u6.5 +110
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Not mad with all unders to start, could be im low on expected batters faced. Hoping to have 5 or 6 to track a day with about 2/3 of them being unders going forward.
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