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Updating pinned with more recent results for credibility in the sports betting space. Need the resume on hand when calling out some BS on here. These are just my P1 accs too 😉
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Pat 🧘♂️⚾️
8K posts
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️
@IIPatll
26 | sports modeling | ⚾️: 24/30 | 🌲: 8/63
NY x NJ Katılım Haziran 2019
738 Takip Edilen13.2K Takipçiler
Bryce Elder opened with a 14.5 outs line on DK. Would consider his BF to be overprojected here so consider that when looking at his Ks
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@Mitts_Picks @KSplitAnalytics Ryan has a 31.7% career K rate vs RHH and just 23.8% K rate vs LHH for his career and has always had traditional splits prior to this year. His increased usage of the knuckle curve vs lefties could explain the improvement there but I wouldn’t consider him a reverse splits guy
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@KSplitAnalytics My model is probably weighing last 30d K rate more than it should be because yeah on the full year and his career he’s pretty down the middle to each side
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.25u on the three man. Don’t like deGrom’s upside cuz they’re being weird with his innings.
Joe Ryan and Ashcraft have reverse K splits and are gonna be facing heavy lefty lineups
.125u on 8/9/10Ks
And taking Ashcraft solo for 8Ks .5u and 9Ks .25u
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Tracking all o/u lines between FD and DK that my model “signals” (see below) as always. 1 so far:
Cease u7.5 -140 FD
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@MaxSportsBetts I was right all along but lost so many under Ks bets on him anyway 🙃
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@syc22 Had my fair share of good bets lose lately so the opposite is allowed to happen too lol
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Some updated numbers based on confirmed lineups or potential changes in projected lineups. Also slightly adjusted some of the expected batters faced numbers based on the outs lines.
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
July 19 Strikeout Model Projections
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Crazy jinx as it’s looking ugly for today
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
Now in a stretch where 27 of the last 28 strikeout over/unders I’ve bet have beat the closing line. Do I have anything to show for it? Still no 🙃
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Based on the updated numbers I ran…
Cantillo u6.5 -138 FD
Wouldn’t bet Cantillo under on the same account as his over of course. I took it elsewhere at -142
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
Some updated numbers based on confirmed lineups or potential changes in projected lineups. Also slightly adjusted some of the expected batters faced numbers based on the outs lines.
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Happy unders day as another under is signaled:
Griffin u5.5 -113 FD
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@Timmm_Jr Based on the current odds, there’s nothing I would currently bet
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Just an fyi, I was able to get Cantillo under 6.5 -142 (which also ended up being a good bet based on my updated projection). Guaranteed a profit with chance to win both bets if he ends up with exactly 6.
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
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@AlexRasmely2 Are you asking which of those legs I’d bet on? I wouldn’t take any of them at the odds you have listed
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Why my projection for Griffin may seem low… Griffin has a 29.8% K rate vs lefties this year and is just at 22.4% vs righties, which is around league average. A’s likely to put out a lineup with 7 or 8 RHH, front loaded with low K rate hitters (Wilson and Kuroda-Grauer)
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