Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Updating pinned with more recent results for credibility in the sports betting space. Need the resume on hand when calling out some BS on here. These are just my P1 accs too 😉
English
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️
7.5K posts
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️
@IIPatll
25 | @BlueprintLLC_ | @FTClan2k | @B4TheFame__ | Pretty decent at modeling sports
NY x NJ Katılım Haziran 2019
722 Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
@j17s_ No, you're right. That is a solid return, and that's probably how I'd use the boost as I said (I'd go for something more likely to win than a +10000 for boosts typically).
English
This comes out to around +5000 fair value based on my projections so I sprinkled on this
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
May 15 Strikeout Model Projections
English
@j17s_ FD and DK seem like they’ll still show/give me the same boosts as everyone but the limits on them are usually very low compared to my unit size. I see a boost on DK for 25%. Can get these guys for 7/7/6 boosted from +2800 to +3600. That’s where I’d probably use the boost tbh
English
An over popping up that just meets the threshold:
Kelly o4.5 +108 DK
English
Tracking all o/u lines between FD and DK that my model "signals" as always. 2 unders so far:
Bibee u6.5 -124 DK
Holmes u5.5 -152 FD
English
@Novaru00 Same thing happened with Messick yesterday ironically. 2 Ks in the 7th. Think I’m 0-2 on McLean unders now and both times he went over his line in the 7th inning (the only 2 games he’s pitched 7+ innings so far this season). Just my luck
English
@JFar2Nice If $50 was my unit size, I’d arb or low hold for a guaranteed ~$5,000. 100 units risk free sounds good to me. Would have to be MLs, odds could be anything. Feel like that has to be the optimal approach
English
@Novaru00 I am posting/tracking them. You’re right that McCullers is one of those examples. I meant that it counts to the +5u number (bets I’ve made since adjustment) but doesn’t count towards the +29u number for the season (doesn’t fit criteria for the filters).
English
Since making an adjustment to my criteria for betting/tracking FD and DK o/u lines:
29 bets
P/L: +5.89 units
Expected P/L: +5.11
ROI%: 18.6%
Expected ROI%: 16.1%
Very small sample but encouraging results so far after making the adjustment.
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
No longer betting/tracking all o/u lines on FanDuel and DraftKings that my model shows a greater than 5% edge on. Will be making a slight adjustment going forward that makes sense and would have been absolutely printing if I had been doing this all along (shown in picture)...
English
Should clarify that the numbers in each post may not seem to add up because a few of the 29 bets I've made recently don't technically meet the criteria (0.1% less than edge threshold for example) and those few won
English
Looking at all the bets that meet the new criteria but for the entire season (now a 138 bet sample size). Pretty cool stuff. Seems like I'm able to identify my accurate projections and take advantage of mispriced lines.
English
@BeefStew911 The model is essentially an inverse cumulative distribution function that estimates the probabilities of pitchers reaching a certain amount strikeouts based on a handful of inputs. My purpose of using it is to identify which over/under lines for strikeouts have value
English
@IIPatll I like to play a little more conservative but base on this model and it's been humming. Nice work.
English
