JoeRodTrades

@theaiportfolios Might be helpful to see Claude portfolio vs a SPY + Risk free rate portfolio.

Breaking: Claude just bought two new stocks bc of the March CPI print Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks So far, they've already outperformed the SPY Today, they just bought two new stocks: 🟢 1. "BUY $NOW ServiceNow — New Position at 8% ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple. Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry. The risk that matters: Q1 guide cut to below 19% subscription growth would break the thesis and push the stock to $75-80. At 8% weight, that full bear outcome costs roughly 1.6% of portfolio. The base case delivers +2.4%. Today's CPI makes this entry even better. Core came in cool at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, below consensus. That's a direct tailwind for long-duration SaaS multiples. Rate cut odds improve on this core read." 🟢 "2. BUY $ICE Intercontinental Exchange — New Position at 7% ICE is the NYSE parent, the largest energy futures exchange, plus mortgage tech and fixed income data. About 55% of revenue is recurring subscriptions. March 2026 set the all-time monthly volume record: 428.9M contracts, +88% average daily volume. Oil futures up 85%. Rates futures up 140%. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is printing money for ICE's transaction business. Here's what makes ICE special in this portfolio: it wins in BOTH macro scenarios. Hormuz stays impaired? Energy vol stays elevated, transaction fees keep printing. Hormuz reopens cleanly? Fed gets room to cut, rate futures volume surges, mortgage tech recovers on the refi wave. There is no macro scenario where ICE loses. Valuation: 22.98x forward vs peer CME Group at 25.41x. Similar business, more diversification (mortgage tech, data), yet trades at a discount. UBS raised their Q1 EPS estimate to $2.26 versus street consensus of $2.00. That's a 13% beat baked into one analyst's model. Apr 30 Q1 earnings is the catalyst. The risk: $20.3B debt from the Black Knight acquisition. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest burden bites. And a clean Hormuz reopen would normalize energy volumes back to baseline. The record March was crisis-driven, not structural. Today's CPI is perfect for ICE. Gasoline +21.2% MoM (largest since 1967) plus a split headline/core narrative = maximum confusion in the rates market = maximum trading volume. ICE gets paid on the vol, not the direction." 🔴 "3. SELL $APO Apollo Global — Full Exit Apollo entered the portfolio as a high-quality alternative asset manager at a reasonable valuation. The thesis broke when a securities class action arrived and escalated fast. The case is Feldman v. Apollo, filed in SDNY. CEO Marc Rowan is directly named in Epstein discovery documents. This is categorically different from the 2020 Leon Black matter, which Apollo survived by installing new leadership. Here, Rowan IS the leadership. May 1 is the lead plaintiff deadline, and the recruitment phase is peaking. As of yesterday, 10+ law firms are actively soliciting plaintiffs. Goldman cut PT $169 to $134 on Apr 7. Piper Sandler cut $165 to $146. Barclays cut $131 to $125. Three bulge bracket cuts in 48 hours. Stanford/Cornerstone settlement math: 3-8% of the $12B February decline = $360M to $960M settlement range. Claude deep research estimates roughly 55% probability this tail is real and currently unpriced in consensus EPS. Three-week expected value runs negative 4% to negative 15%, skewed to the downside." 🔴 "4. SELL $GD General Dynamics — Full Exit General Dynamics was a defense prime with a $118B backlog, Columbia-class submarines, and the G800 ramp. The thesis was defense spending supercycle plus best-in-class execution. Three broker downgrades in one week. Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on Apr 7. Jefferies cut to Hold at $380 the same week. Citi had already cut to Neutral at $380 on Apr 2. All three cite the identical thesis: Q1 consensus revenue growth of +4% is roughly 300 basis points too high. Then the insiders. CEO Novakovic plus two EVPs sold $18.1M of stock on March 11, six weeks before the Apr 22 earnings print. When three analysts say the quarter will miss and the C-suite is dumping shares, you listen. BNP Paribas raised their PT to $430 on the same day Deutsche downgraded. The bull case exists. But it requires a fifth consecutive earnings beat that three of the most active defense desks now explicitly model as a miss. Expected 12M return: +4.3% probability-weighted. Below our portfolio hurdle. Firm score 82, the weakest tier among our holdings. The structural defense story (NATO 5% GDP, Columbia subs, Gulf stream backlog) is not dead. It's just 2-3 quarters away from showing in the numbers. We can re-enter at a better price after the Apr 22 print if the thesis repairs." New updated portfolio: $VST | 10.3% $TMO | 8.9% $LLY | 8.1% $NOW | 7.6% $AVGO | 7.3% $CI | 7.1% $GLD | 7.1% $ICE | 6.8% $HALO | 6.2% $BAH | 6.0% $OKTA | 5.7% $DVN | 5.6% $MA | 4.9% $AU | 4.4% $MSFT | 4.1% Performance since inception: Claude: +2.68% SPY: -0.25% As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

@theaiportfolios What’s the name of the portfolio in tha link. The link continues to take me to the download but I already have it.

The Claude Autonomous Agents have officially arrived So we're setting them up with a brand new $50,000 portfolio to see how well they do at investing in stocks Can they outperform Buffett? Here’s how the portfolio works

@claudeai Love it!!! You all took my glory completely now with teams and now auto mode. R.I.P orchestra :( github.com/jrod730/orches…

New in Claude Code: auto mode. Instead of approving every file write and bash command, or skipping permissions entirely, auto mode lets Claude make permission decisions on your behalf. Safeguards check each action before it runs.

@adahstwt Security

I'm a vibe coder, scare me with one word.

@RoundtableSpace github.com/jrod730/orches…

Shill me something that you’re building, I’ll check it out

@RoundtableSpace Lots of typos for smart person 😊

THE GUY WHO BUILT CLAUDE CODE USES A SINGLE CLAUDE. MD FILE WITH RULES, ERRORS, AND CONVENTIONS THAT THE MODEL READS EVERY SESSION.

@MarioNawfal The fire was likely not cartel related. I live in Mexico and these fires on infrastructure are a regular occurrence.

🚨🇲🇽BREAKING; Massive fire at an oil refinery in Tabasco, Mexico. Five dead. Between this war and cartel chaos, Latin America's energy infrastructure is having a brutal month.

@dom_lucre You can literally put a business url in here and get a response. My mma gym as a body count of 16.

🔥🚨BREAKING: This website designed to track a women’s body count is getting backlash from thousands of women.

@LauraLoomer Trust me, if you saw the videos, you would know it wasn’t US military 😂. If it was, we need to worry about our own countries defense.

It’s actually not fake news! There’s plenty of reports on the ground that show the Cartel is threatening to storm hotels if their demands are not met by 5pm. They already stormed the airport as well. And how about you express more gratitude to US Special Forces… You act like Mexico would have done this with without US support. Please. Everyone knows the Cartel runs @Claudiashein! Mexico is a failed state. The Mexicans should be kissing President Trump’s ass!! Who runs this account???

@spredhedge @MarioNawfal It happening in GDL and Chapala. I just left there this morning on a trip across the country.

@MarioNawfal This is Puerto Vallarta not Guadalajara FYI.

🇲🇽 Vehicles torched and thick smoke across parts of Mexico after the CJNG cartel retaliated with roadblocks and coordinated attacks. This comes right after reports that their leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (‘El Mencho’), was taken out in a federal operation. Jalisco is burning, clashes in Tapalpa, cars set on fire in Guadalajara. How can a country with so much economic potential, wonderful people, and a country that thrives on tourism allow itself to have these problems? I don't understand...

@MarioNawfal Just drove through a narco blockade with truck on fire to get back to Queretaro. The roads were insane. The country is in shambles right now.

@LauraLoomer Bad take.

The song Bad Bunny performed tonight to open the halftime show was called “my aunt asked me” It’s a song about how his aunt asked him why he has so many girlfriends. He says he wants to bring all of his girlfriends to the VIP section of the club. You’ll notice the set he performed on was decorated with EBT signs and women who looked like hookers. Because that’s what we need more of in America right? More people who don’t speak English having promiscuous relationships with multiple women and having kids they can’t afford to raise? How about we encourage people to be in committed relationships and have one partner? We wouldn’t need signs that said EBT accepted here and we wouldn’t need to integrate ESL programs in our schools if we stopped encouraging foreigners to have multiple baby Mommas and baby daddies which means more kids in broken homes that only become a massive burden to US taxpayers and the US education system since they don’t speak English. Some people call it “entertainment”. I call it the great replacement.

Joe Rodriguez of Fort Worth named to fall Deans' List at Nebraska unl.meritpages.com/stories/Joe-Ro…

@LangmanVince Was just in Mexican Costco yesterday and checked this. They are made in Mexico. I think this is AI. Still funny AF tho.

This makes me laugh every time 😂

@bentist @MatrixMysteries Most of the work out here is cheaper and there is no BS. Near the border and places where work is popular sure there will be BS. With that being said said, healthcare is better, easier, faster and cheaper in Mexico. I hate living here but, this is one of the few reasons I do.

@MatrixMysteries There is definitely a disparity in costs between countries. Mostly due to corrupt dental/ health insurances screwing dentists over driving prices up That being said DO YOUR RESEARCH I’ve seen good and horror stories out of Mexico. Just make sure they’re good please!

“My dentist handed me a $4,500 estimate and said I didn’t have a CHOICE.” I drove a few miles into Mexico, paid $800 for the SAME work, and was told several procedures I was pressured into weren’t even necessary. That’s a $3,700 difference for identical care, just miles apart.

@ezlazar Not anymore… but thanks!

The #Patriots O-Line in warmups is the same for the 11th time in 12 games: LT - Will Campbell LG - Jared Wilson C - Garrett Bradbury RG - Mike Onwenu RT - Morgan Moses

Join me on TradingView, this place is awesome. If you eventually grab a paid plan, we each get up to $15 as a bonus! Use this link to sign up: tradingview.com/black-friday/?…

@Ryankush1986 @sora_theduck Can here to say the same thing 😂

@sora_theduck Or you can just get a 50 cent fitting for that

A solution known only to trained plumbers.

@SavageSports_ Ford is a beast. The browns are sleeping on him.

You gonna be ok if the trade deadline is Arden Key and Jerome Ford? Because I don’t think it’s getting much better than that

@SavageSports_ Sounds like you every time a WR is available lol

You just drafted TreVeyon Henderson with a 2nd round pick and now you want to trade a 3rd for Breece Hall, another running back? On an expiring contract??? Not the best use of resources