@ManifoldMarkets Kelly betting on anything is simple. also rip ur business model 🙏😭
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LibFrog
97 posts
LibFrog
@LibFrog
Providing never before seen data for prediction markets.
San Francisco Sumali Ocak 2026
50 Sinusundan22 Mga Tagasunod
LibFrog nag-retweet
One day, 𝑒ˣ sees 𝑥² running down the street in a panic.
“What’s wrong?” asks 𝑒ˣ.
“There’s a Differential Operator in town!” yells 𝑥². “If I run into him too many times, I’ll disappear!”
“Don’t worry,” responds 𝑒ˣ. “I’ll go have a chat with him. No, don’t worry about me — he can’t hurt me. After all, I’m 𝑒ˣ.”
So 𝑒ˣ walks down the street to the Differential Operator. “My friend tells me you’re a Differential Operator,” 𝑒ˣ says pompously. “Well, I’m 𝑒ˣ.”
“Pleased to meet you, 𝑒ˣ,” says the Differential Operator. “I’m 𝑑/𝑑𝑡.”
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@ManifoldMarkets ur markets mean nothing without actual money being traded
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Anthropic could be on track to overtake OpenAI in revenue thanks to a rising market share among enterprise users
update.news/p/corn-farming…
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@LibFrog I have historicals that show which strikes were offered and hit by kalshi, but not raw transcripts for fights.
If you sign up and wanna check out historicals lmk and I’ll give you access to see
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Big UFC fights tonight with THREE UFC mention markets to match.
Need some data to play the mentions? Check out the mentions terminal comps - up to date with all of the fights data.
Comment and dm me and I can give you a trial for today to access.
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For context, this image contains one million dots.
Imagine each dot pictured had a million dots within itself.. so, a trillion dots.
You'd need 9.2 MILLION new images of that to get 9.2 QUINTILLION dots.
You have a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance of a perfect bracket. Good luck!
DraftKings Sportsbook@DKSportsbook
Odds of a perfect bracket: 1 in 9.2 quintillion 🤯 For perspective: ▪️If every person on Earth filled out 1 bracket per second, it would take 36 years to reach that number. ▪️Counting to it? 292 billion years. ▪️That’s 31 billion times harder than winning Powerball. ▪️Winning Powerball five times in a row would still be far more likely than picking a perfect bracket.
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Me and the cofounder for our upcoming startup thought we needed a well deserved vacation to Rio after weeks of nonstop grinding.
As we sat by the pool, hot babes surrounding us, drinks coming by the dozen… we just couldn’t stop thinking about the startup.
So here we are. At our computers coding away by the poolside.
Still on the grind. Never. Stop.
It’s about drive, it’s about passion. This. This is what it takes to be the next big thing.
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Average Balyasny PM physique
RetrAshado@RetrAshado
FYI, this a 27 year-old male with aromatase deficiency (low estrogen).
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if perplexity doesn't own the models how exactly do they one-shot this? This is at least 2 prompts w claude code
Simon Taylor@sytaylor
Perplexity just gave every retail investor a Bloomberg Terminal. For free. Watch this demo. It's wild. @perplexity_ai connects to brokerage accounts via @Plaid and builds a custom investment dashboard in seconds. Perplexity Computer pulls from 40+ live finance tools like: - SEC filings - FactSet - S&P Global - Coinbase - LSEG. 75% of Perplexity's paying users were already asking finance questions monthly. The demand existed before the product did. But you couldn't DO anything with that information. --- Now you can connect it to your data for better insights. Connect your brokerage accounts through Plaid, and suddenly an AI agent can see your actual holdings across multiple institutions — then query institutional-grade data against them. "Show me my sector concentration risk" or "How exposed am I to rising rates" — answered in seconds with your real portfolio, not hypotheticals. --- It still can't trade for you, though. That's a deliberate regulatory design choice that lets Perplexity move fast while every neobank and robo-advisor is still waiting for compliance sign-off. Fintech companies spent a decade building Plaid as pipes for fintech apps to read your bank data. But I'm much more interested in when we give them to AI
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im not sure man... inverse cramer has always been pretty reliable
Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Not buying the 2007 scenario...
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@ManifoldMarkets @nicdunz these markets / predictions are meaningless without real money to incentivize price discovery
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@ManifoldMarkets Not as impressive predicting things without actual money involved. that’s why ur fully pivoting ur model to selling data lol
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@saurav_tweets @Polymarket super interesting volatility... ive been wondering if trading on highly volatile markets like that might be an effective trading strat.
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the odds of ubisoft will be acquired before 2027 jumped 23% today on @Polymarket
a company that owns some of gaming’s most iconic IPs has been through chaos over the last 18 months:
> the stock crashed 95% from its peak
> trading was mysteriously halted with no explanation
> the company saw its worst single-day crash ever (-34%)
> 6 games were cancelled and hundreds of employees were laid off
> tencent quietly bought some of their best IPs for $1.25B
do you think a buyout is getting close?
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somebody should turn this into a single endpoint MCP or CLI support and give it to claude code to trade on Kalshi or poly
Qwerty 🧀@qwerty_ytrevvq
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A guy I know launched an AI product a few weeks ago.
He didn’t even plan to start a company.
He was just experimenting with some tools on a Sunday night.
Built a small web app that generates landing page copy using AI.
Took him about 2 hours.
Deployed it.
Added Stripe.
Went to sleep.
Next morning he posted it on X.
The tweet blew up.
Developers started sharing it.
Indie hackers started trying it.
A few YouTubers mentioned it.
Within 3 weeks the product was making $220k per month.
No team.
No funding.
No office.
Just one guy and a laptop.
The entire stack is automated.
AI writes the marketing emails.
AI answers support tickets.
AI pushes product updates.
95% profit margins.
He’s already planning to build 3 more apps like this.
Apparently this is the new startup model.
One small problem though.
None of this happened.
I made the entire story up.
But based on my timeline,
that seems to be the standard now.
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1. it watches 300+ correlated market pairs at the same time every half second via websocket.
2. it's constantly recalculating the correlation between pairs on a rolling 30min window. if two markets stop moving together, they get dropped.
3. the second a price spread between platforms gets weird like 2.3 standard deviations from normal — it fires a signal.
4. before touching anything it checks: is there enough liquidity? is the spread still moving the wrong way? did this same pair just lose? all 3 have to pass or it does nothing.
5. if they pass, it goes long the cheap side, short the expensive side. both orders hit simultaneously. total time from signal to fill: ~120ms.
6. it exits the second the spread normalizes
If you want access to the bot's github dm me. working on different stuff now.
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Sharing this might kill my edge but i think i just found one of the most consistent strategies for Kalshi and Polymarket. Here is my bot running live.
rn im basically doing statistical arbitrage via cross-market correlation and the math behind it is actually fairly simple.
TLDR: when two related markets diverge by >2ish standard deviations from their historical correlation, they almost always mean-revert within 10 seconds.
I'll put the full strat in the comments
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