Simon White

@InvesmentKeep @carolmassar 👍

@LondonSW @carolmassar Total bullshit and contrary to reality.

Our @LondonSW writes today: "A full guarantee of all bank deposits would spell the end of moral hazard disciplining banks and mark the final chapter of the dollar’s multi-decade debasement." Fascinating. And, troubling.

@InvesmentKeep @carolmassar Deposit insurance schemes lead to less banking stability, and the more generous the scheme, leads to more instability: openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/cor…

@carolmassar @LondonSW @LondonSW is just wrong. If the shareholders and bond holders can still be wiped out, how does protecting the depositors 100% create moral hazard? Depositors have little ability to analyze banks, but stockholders and bond holders sure do.

@ClausVistesen @ClausVistesen was looking at similar

The question is whether this picture will look the same/higher or lower by the end of Q2. I hope for the former, but the risk of the latter has increased I think 2/2

I think this simple chart captures the shift in the EZ economy since the panic in late Q3 about a deep recession, rationing etc. But it is also yesterday's story. Investor sentiment dipped in March, the ECB terminal rate has been revised higher, and Q4 GDP was revised lower. 1/2

@Fritz844 One of my favourite films … you should submit this as an article to a magazine!

I watched 12 Angry Men the other day. One of the best and most underrated studies of the prejudices + biases that cause us to become irrational. In the movie, 12 jurors are tasked with trying to decide whether an 18-year old buy should be convicted of first-degree murder or not.

It might not seem like it after today’s inflation numbers out of Europe, but global CPI is likely peaking

Equities become ever less relatively attractive in elevated inflation regimes. As happened in the 70s, this may prompt a large rebalancing from stocks - at record overweights today - to bonds

With the market finally doing the Fed’s work and helping, not hindering, tight monetary policy, peak Fed hawkishness is near

Dollar rally has led to extreme selling of official reserve assets

Whether the Chancellor goes or not, the bar is high for the Bank of England to deliver on the well over 300 bps of rate hikes expected

The Fed pivot the market is expecting looks vulnerable if inflation doesn’t soon start coming down hard

Long-dated UK gilts: Fortune favours the opportunistic

If rates rise as projected, UK mortgage repayments are poised to jump to the levels of the financial crisis

@AndreasSteno Hi Andreas. Well the fx forward for EURUSD has it at 1.57 in 30y time, but i presume you don’t take that as a serious forecast! ;-)

30yr EUR inflation expectations are up 30 bps based on a war-driven supply-shock. I simply don't get long-term inflation markets. If anything, the war increases the risk of long-term disinflation/deflation (assuming that we don't end in a perma-war scenario)

@mrchrisaddison On Britbox, and watch (or rewatch) Auf Widersehen Pet. It’s dated in bits of course, but it’s so well acted and scripted you stop to notice. An absolute gem

I know I keep asking you, but… We’ve finished Mare of Easttown and The Morning Show and a bunch of other series. We’re after something that’s ideally not dark-murder-drama type stuff. What do you think we’d enjoy?

@AndreasSteno @michaelxpettis for sure. I Recommend his latest book he co-write too, Trade Wars Are Class Wars

Who's the best China expert on FinTwitter? Please hit me And no Kyle Bass is not a China expert.

@Dominic2306 Highly recommend Beyond Bad by Chris Paley. In a nutshell, morals are nothing more than signalling devices to enable humans to form (divisive) groups. Thus the way to change behaviour isn’t to convert them, it’s to convince them they’re already converted-moralists do not get this

Vote Leave: reasonable people can disagree about Brexit Remain establishment: we're morally superior, we were cheated by lies & villains, public morons & hoodwinked Well heeled London Remain will never understand what happened til they drop the delusion 1 side is morally superior

@FraserNelson If you assume the average of the last 2 weeks’ testing, adjust for people to test ratio (harder to get accurate data on that), then multiply by prevailing test positivity ratio through time, you’ll get something similar

Fascinating graph in The Economist - but no source/method mentioned. I’d be grateful for any pointers....economist.com/leaders/2020/1…

@dylangrice Comparatively much less social distancing going on as well

All this talk of the US opening up before anyone else is making me feel pretty dumb. Using Bloomberg's data and deaths =>20 to signify t=0, the slope of their fatality curve is way worse than anything Italy or Spain experienced. It looks out of control ... am i missing something?

@AndreasSteno End of tax year rebalancing. May have started earlier this year due to cheap opportunity, but if you look GBPUSD has been up ~18 of the last 20 Aprils

Why is GBP gaining so much these days? Discuss please

@VictoriaCoren 8d in today’s Times Quick Crossword: Nothing but Bond seen in this TV programme (4,7) ... you’ll never get it