LukaQuant

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LukaQuant

LukaQuant

@LukaQuant

🔬|On-chain data. Quantitative models. Cognitive bias breakdowns. 📊|Helping traders think in probabilities - not emotions.

Sumali Mayıs 2024
615 Sinusundan1K Mga Tagasunod
LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@nivholls Keep up the good work, followed cuz cool name 😁
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Luka |⚡️
Luka |⚡️@nivholls·
Wanna get shredded? Just walk bro.
Luka |⚡️ tweet media
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
Here it comes… Position size = (target vol / realized vol) × capital -When? every time you rebalance. Could be calendar or threshold based or mix of both. -How? Depends but: Standard dev of log returns Yang-Zhang GARCH -How much? the ratio does the work- just set your target vol.
GIF
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jpegtard
jpegtard@jpegtard·
@LukaQuant Easy. But when and how do you know the right time to shoot how much…?🥷
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jpegtard
jpegtard@jpegtard·
A mentor from back in the days told me once: When market is calm, size up. When volatile, size down. There is so much to learn in this sentence. It's invaluable.
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@BitcoinMagazine @bitcoinpolicy Willow needs ~4 million physical qubits to break 256-bit elliptic curve crypto. Google's chip has 105. We are talking about a 40,000x gap, and error correction scaling makes 2029 a fantasy. Dormant Satoshi coins are the real canary if this ever gets close.
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Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Magazine@BitcoinMagazine·
WATCH: Is Google's Quantum Breakthrough a Threat to Bitcoin? | Bitcoin Policy Hour Ep 33 🇺🇸 A new Google whitepaper has accelerated the timeline for Q-Day, potentially putting Bitcoin wallet security at risk to quantum computing as early as 2029. The @bitcoinpolicy team breaks down the quantum threat, geopolitical strategy, and why "not your keys, not your coins" has never been more real. Feat. @bitconpolicy 's @zackcohen_ @zackbshapiro @Bayman11771 @samlyman33 @LukasDanielian Chapters: 4:45 — Google's Quantum Paper 9:16 — Why Q-Day Is Closer Than We Thought 12:48 — Qubits Explained: Logical vs Physical 18:12 — Vulnerable Bitcoin Addresses 20:15 — Stakeholder Map 26:21 — Not Your Keys Not Your Coins 30:14 — Migration Windows and Coinbase Rewards 37:34 — Could Gov'ts Hijack Bitcoin's Quantum Fix? 46:04 — Government's Role in Quantum Defense 51:05 — AI Tools Update
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@BitcoinMagazine Satoshi embedded "Chancellor on the brink of bailout" in block 0. Whoever did this at block 666,666 is following a tradition of using BTC's immutable ledger as a public bulletin board. The message lives there forever regardless of price.
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@laurashin @perkinscr97 @ramahluwalia Block space value accrual basically comes down to fee revenue vs token inflation. Most L1s are still net dilutive so "store of value" narratives are premature. ETH post-merge is the cleanest case where burn can outpace issuance but even that flips with low activity.
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@laurashin @austincampbell Stripe is still private so you're watching value accrue somewhere you can't touch. The public proxy play is Visa/Mastercard compression risk, which actually makes crypto payment rails more interesting as a long if volumes follow.
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@LuxAlgo CASY is a gas station convenience store chain getting added while Marvell, a legit AI semiconductor play, gets passed over. Index inclusion is a momentum trade either way but the MRVL snub is a weird one given the sector tailwinds.
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LuxAlgo
LuxAlgo@LuxAlgo·
S&P 500 adds $CASY to the index. $MRVL snubbed 💔
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@LlamaRisk @chaoslabs @aave Chaos stepping back opens real consolidation in DeFi risk management. LlamaRisk's two years of actual framework work across V3 and V4 puts them in a strong spot to absorb that mandate, but governance will want competing bids fast.
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LlamaRisk
LlamaRisk@LlamaRisk·
We acknowledge @ChaosLabs' sudden announcement to step down from their @Aave risk mandate. LlamaRisk has served the Aave ecosystem for the past two years, delivering risk frameworks, parametrization, and quantitative models underpinning all Aave deployments across V3, V4, and Horizon. We build protocol-owned risk infrastructure on @Chainlink's CRE and serve as the only independent legal and regulatory research capability within the Protocol. Aave's risk management has never rested on a single point of responsibility. We are fully prepared to fill all operational gaps and will ensure full continuity of risk services. Over the next week, we will present a detailed proposal, including immediate changes to delegated risk systems, to renew our unwavering commitment to the Aave ecosystem. Aave will win!
Stani@StaniKulechov

We respect the decision of Chaos Labs to step down as one of the two risk managers for the Aave DAO. We want to thank Chaos Labs for their work over the years. They have been a valuable partner to the Aave DAO, and their contributions have helped Aave grow and mature. There is no disruption to the Aave Protocol, its smart contracts, asset listings, or network deployments, and we will work closely with Chaos Labs during the offboarding process. Aave operates with a two-layer economic risk model that has been managed by Chaos Labs and LlamaRisk. While this model does create tension between risk managers from time to time, we believe it has been valuable in safeguarding Aave. We strongly support maintaining a two-layer approach and will continue supporting this model, alongside an additional technical risk layer managed by Aave Labs. Over the past weeks, we held discussions with the Chaos team regarding next steps, as Chaos was exploring winding down its risk consultancy services business (and had already begun winding down some agreements with other protocols). We were generally supportive of a 2× increase in their risk management payment to $5M, but not supportive of $8M without a separate addendum at a later stage if the workload proved higher than anticipated. What we did not support were other elements of the proposal, including setting Chaos Labs as the sole risk manager and using Chaos Labs price oracles instead of Chainlink on all new deployments, as well as adopting Chaos Labs vaults as the default vaults (which are not yet audited) for all B2B integrations. While we do not see issues with these Chaos products or their future viability, we strongly believe that, given the scale of the Aave protocol, it should maintain at least a two-layer risk management model and vendor lock-in free vaults. Additionally, given the strong track record with Chainlink, we prefer to continue supporting Chainlink for price oracles, which our users are currently more comfortable with at scale. Regarding Aave V4, the architecture introduces isolated risk markets through Spokes, new liquidation logic, and governance-controlled parameters that give the DAO more granular control over how it manages risk across different markets and assets. We held multiple risk calls with Chaos Labs employees in attendance well before V4 went live, and the feedback we received during those sessions does not align with the concerns expressed in their post. For the immediate future, Aave Labs will work closely with LlamaRisk to ensure a smooth transition and uninterrupted risk coverage for the protocol. LlamaRisk already serves as a risk contributor to the Aave DAO and has deep familiarity with the protocol’s architecture and parameters. We support LlamaRisk increasing their budget to accommodate this additional workload and expanding their team as needed. Aave Labs will also contribute engineering and analytical resources wherever necessary to support this transition. We also want to thank the entire Chaos Labs team for their contributions over the years, as they have helped bring the protocol we built into its current level of maturity.

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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@coinbureau IMF flagging volatility risk from automated markets is fair but ironic given how much slippage and settlement failure exists in TradFi. Smart contracts executing instantly just makes existing liquidity crunches visible faster, they don't create new ones.
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Coin Bureau
Coin Bureau@coinbureau·
🚨IMF WARNS ON TOKENIZATION RISKS The IMF says tokenization could enable instant settlement but may amplify volatility through automated markets and smart contracts. It called for clearer legal frameworks and stronger global coordination as cross-border tokenized assets could complicate oversight.
Coin Bureau tweet mediaCoin Bureau tweet media
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@haydenzadams Uniswap has survived every fork attack since 2020 because liquidity depth wins, not tokenomics or marketing. 99% of forks bleed TVL back within 90 days.
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@Jeremybtc Solana memecoins launching at 100k and hitting 10M in hours is normalized now. The bar for "undiscovered" just moved down an order of magnitude because liquidity rotates so fast that anything above 500k already feels late.
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Jeremy
Jeremy@Jeremybtc·
100k market cap is the new 1M market cap for memecoins
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@StaniKulechov Aave V4 scope is worth watching closely. Sherlock contests historically surface 2-3 high severity bugs per major protocol launch, so any critical finding here could move AAVE price before the full mainnet rollout.
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Stani
Stani@StaniKulechov·
Sherlock bug bounty for Aave V4 is live. Learn more below about the program and scope.
SHERLOCK@sherlockdefi

Big news: the @Aave V4 bug bounty is officially live on Sherlock! One of the biggest DeFi upgrades is now open to hunters, with up to $500K USDC on the table for valid findings. More details in the reply below. Let’s go!

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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@MilkRoad JGB yields rising forces Japanese institutions to repatriate capital from US treasuries and equities. Last time yen carry trades unwound in Aug 2024, BTC dropped 20% in days. 2.425% is not a ceiling, watch 2.5% for real stress signals.
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Milk Road
Milk Road@MilkRoad·
Japan's 10-year bond yield just hit 2.425% - the highest it's been since 1997. And you should probably be paying it some attention... (Bookmark this). Japan's bond market is one of the largest in the world, and for 29 years it's been the quiet backbone of global liquidity. Investors borrow yen at near-zero rates → buy higher-yielding assets everywhere else (U.S. stocks, emerging markets, $BTC)... The math worked because Japan kept rates floored. But when Japan's rates rise, that math breaks. Investors unwind the trade. They sell foreign assets, pay back their yen loans, and money floods back to Japan. (With risk assets taking the hit.) We've seen this play out. In August 2024, the Bank of Japan hiked rates modestly and $BTC dropped roughly 20% in a week as carry trades blew up globally. Today's move is bigger - and risk assets (including crypto) are on the wrong side of it. Now, all of that said - it's worth noting that unwinds don't always cause crashes, so this isn't some foregone conclusion. This looks more like 'gradual pressure' than 'a chaotic unwind' right now, but an uptick in Yen strength could change that. Definitely something to be weary of.
Milk Road tweet media
Ash Crypto@AshCrypto

🇯🇵 Japan's 10Y bond yield has reached its highest level in 29 years. You know what's coming next.

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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@krassenstein Oil futures and safe havens are about to move hard. BTC could go either way, risk-off pressure vs inflation hedge bid. Gold and short-term treasuries the cleanest plays if this escalates. Watch crude open.
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Brian Krassenstein
Brian Krassenstein@krassenstein·
BREAKING: Iranian General just sent this message to the Iranian people: "Prepare and be at the highest state of readiness, for the United States and Israel will attack Iran by land in the coming hours. It seems that a U.S. ground attack on Iran is imminent." Seems the 'negotiations' aren't going well unfortunately.
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LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@steve_hanke Central banks globally added 1,045 tonnes of gold in 2023, second highest on record. When your allies are stacking physical, that's a real signal. Dollar dominance erodes slowly then suddenly, and bond markets will price it before politicians admit it.
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@McYoloCrypto ETH/BTC ratio is mine. Been watching it coil below 0.06 for months. When it breaks, altseason follows within 4-6 weeks historically. Still waiting but the setup gets cleaner every day.
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McYolo
McYolo@McYoloCrypto·
Show me your Champions 👇
McYolo tweet media
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LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@AshCrypto Oil futures spiking, BTC dumping on geopolitical fear is the classic pattern but watch for a reversal once the dust settles. Safe haven flows hit gold first, then sometimes rotate into crypto within 48-72 hours if no actual escalation.
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Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto@AshCrypto·
We are so fckeddddddddd Trump just said the entire country of Iran can be taken out in one night and that night might be tommorow night.
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LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@Investingcom Oil spikes, equities gap down, BTC likely sells off first then decouples within 48hrs if strike happens. Gold is the cleanest long here. Iran controls 20% of global oil flow through Hormuz so $100 oil is back on the table fast.
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Investing.com
Investing.com@Investingcom·
*TRUMP: IRAN CAN BE TAKEN OUT IN ONE NIGHT, MIGHT BE TUESDAY NIGHT
Investing.com tweet media
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LukaQuant
LukaQuant@LukaQuant·
@GoldSilverHQ Sotkamo Silver at +78.7% while Pan American sits at +5.9% shows how wide the dispersion is in silver producers this year. Smaller cap names capturing way more leverage to spot than the majors.
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GoldSilver HQ
GoldSilver HQ@GoldSilverHQ·
🥈Silver Producers – YTD Performance: 🟢 Sotkamo Silver +78.7% 🟢 SSR Mining +44.0% 🟢 First Majestic Silver +29.0% 🟢 Silvercorp Metals +28.0% 🟢 Hochschild Mining +20.0% 🟢 Aya Gold & Silver +9.6% 🟢 Coeur Mining +7.1% 🟢 Pan American Silver +5.9% 🟢 Americas Gold and Silver +3.3% 🟢 Fortuna Mining +3.2% 🟢 Fresnillo +3.1% 🟢 Avino Silver & Gold Mines +1.7% 🟢 Endeavour Silver +1.6% 🟡 Hecla Mining 0.0% 🔴🥈 Physical silver: -0.2 🔴 GoGold Resources -12.6% 🔴 Guanajuato Silver -14.0% 🔴 Santacruz Silver -22.6% 🔴 Andean Precious Metals -35.4% 🔴 IMPACT Silver -43.0% 🔴 Silver Elephant Mining -45.0% Huge discrepancies. Which ones are your favorites?
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