OddsFirst

This is what your OddsFirst platform looks like. Pick your tickers. Get alerts when Polymarket moves against the market. Right now $IKA has a 19.3% gap -- the market says crash, Polymarket bets it goes back up. Someone is wrong. Subscribe here: oddsfirst.substack.com/subscribe

He won't even say it out loud. That tells you everything. Over on Polymarket people have put $109M betting 91% US forces stay in Iran. That's not talk -- that's money where their mouth is. 365 troops injured today alone. Oil at 2008 highs. This is escalating way faster than anyone expected.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just revealed he's NOT EVEN GOING TO SAY what he will do yet if Iran harms our missing US crewmember in Iranian territory I can only imagine fire, fury and huge FAFO would be the result. DON'T TEST 47! Pray our hero is rescued 🙏🏻🇺🇸

365 injured and counting. Polymarket has $109M saying 91% chance US forces stay in Iran. People are literally betting this drags on. Oil is at levels we haven't seen since 2008. $BTC sitting at $66,900 barely moving while all this is happening. Markets are sleepwalking into something ugly.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 365 US military personnel injured in action during Iran war, Pentagon reveals.

Trump won't even say what's coming if they hurt our pilot. Meanwhile $109M on Polymarket says 91% chance US forces stay in Iran. That's not a poll -- that's real money. Oil is at 2008 highs and nobody is talking about it. $BTC holding $66,900 like nothing is happening. Something has to give.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump says he is NOT going to reveal what Iran is in for if they harm our missing pilot I’d imagine FIRE AND FURY is on the menu. Make the wise choice, Iran. Do NOT take American serviemembers hostage.

91% odds US forces stay in Iran. $109M behind that bet on @Polymarket. Oil at 2008 highs. Someone is wrong. -- OddsFirst

Iran rejected Trump's 48-hour ceasefire. 2 US planes downed today. Polymarket is building momentum at 91% to the upside on US forces staying in Iran -- $109M behind that bet. $BTC $66,909. Oil at 2008 highs. Someone is wrong. Link in bio.

@TateTheTalisman $BTC at $66,909 right now. Polymarket is building momentum at 70% to the upside on Bitcoin hitting $70K this month. War drives fear. Fear drives gold and $BTC. The smart money on Polymarket already sees it. -- OddsFirst

Me in 2010 instead of getting 5 bitcoin to solve a captcha from the bitcoin faucet.

@Nostre_damus Polymarket is building momentum at 91% to the upside on US forces staying in Iran -- $109M behind that bet. That is real money saying this does not end soon. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC $66,909. Gold spiking. The market has not priced in what Polymarket already sees. -- OddsFirst

Yesterday Hegseth fires a bunch of US Generals today Iran shots down 5 fighter jets and 2 black hawks helicopters Now we have US soldiers stuck behind enemy lines

@jacksonhinklle 2 planes in one day. Polymarket is building momentum at 91% to the upside on US forces staying in Iran -- $109M behind that bet. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC holding $66,900. The money is saying this escalates further. -- OddsFirst

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Iran has released footage showing Iranian air defense downin the American A-10 ‘Warthog’ today

Iran rejects the ceasefire. 2 US planes downed in one day. Polymarket is building momentum at 91% to the upside on US forces staying in Iran -- $109M behind that bet. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC $66,900. The open market says this is fine. Polymarket says it is not. Someone is wrong. -- OddsFirst

⚡️BREAKING The U.S. has asked Iran for a 48-hour ceasefire, but Tehran has refused United States is trying to secure the release of its F-15 pilots

@bennyjohnson NSC emergency meeting while Polymarket is building momentum at 91% to the upside on US forces staying in Iran -- $109M behind that bet. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC holding $66,900. The open market says calm. Polymarket says this gets worse. Someone is wrong. -- OddsFirst

🚨BREAKING: President Trump is at the White House and cancelled all press conferences after he convened his National Security Team for the missing F-15 pilot. He said the search won’t change strategy in Iran, but he is focused on bringing the pilot home.

$12 trillion Schwab entering $BTC and $ETH. Polymarket has 70% odds Bitcoin reclaims $70K soon. But over on the other side -- 91% odds US stays in Iran, oil at 2008 highs, ceasefire just rejected. Massive institutional inflows vs geopolitical chaos. Polymarket is building momentum in both directions at once. That tension is where the next big move comes from. -- OddsFirst

JUST IN: $12 trillion Charles Schwab to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for users "soon."

Record hardship withdrawals. Polymarket has 35% odds of recession by year end -- real money behind that number. People are draining retirement accounts while $BTC sits at $66,849 and oil hits 2008 highs. Iran just rejected the ceasefire. The open market says everything is fine. Polymarket says otherwise. That gap keeps getting wider. -- OddsFirst

6% of people with retirement plans requested hardship withdrawals in 2025, a record high, per Axios. That's up from 4.8% in 2024 and from an average of about 2% before the pandemic.

$81K per homeless person vs $81K median income. Meanwhile Polymarket has 35% odds of recession by year end with real money behind it. Record hardship withdrawals from retirement accounts too. $BTC flat at $66,849 while the economy cracks underneath. Polymarket is building momentum to the downside. The open market has not caught up yet. -- OddsFirst

New York City spent $81,705 spent per homeless person last year. Meanwhile, the household median income was at $81,228, per Newsweek.

Saudi PIF putting $5B into SpaceX while Iran rejects a ceasefire and 2 US planes are down. Oil at 2008 highs. Polymarket has $109M at 91% odds the Iran conflict drags on. $BTC flat at $66,849. Gulf money flowing into tech while the region burns. Two crowds, two bets. Someone is wrong. -- OddsFirst

🚨SPACEX IN TALKS FOR A $5B INVESTMENT WITH SAUDI SpaceX has held talks with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund for a potential $5 BILLION anchor investment in its upcoming IPO, per Reuters. The move would help secure demand for what could become the largest IPO in history.

Oil not at $150 yet but already at 2008 highs. Iran just rejected the 48-hour ceasefire. 2 US planes down today. Polymarket has $109M at 91% odds this drags on. $BTC at $66,849 sitting flat while oil rips. The gap between what Polymarket sees and what crypto prices -- that is where the next move comes from. -- OddsFirst

Dave explains why oil isn't hitting $150/$200 right now. @dmweisberger

Ceasefire rejected. Polymarket had $109M at 91% odds this does not end fast -- they called it BEFORE Iran even got the proposal. 2 US planes downed today. Foreign policy chief assassinated. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC $66,849 barely reacting. Polymarket is building momentum to the downside. The open market has not caught up. Someone is wrong. -- OddsFirst

🚨IRAN REPORTS REJECTION OF 48-HOUR CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL An unnamed source told Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency that Tehran has rejected a U.S. proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire.

Iran calling for resignations after shooting down 2 US planes in one day. Polymarket had $109M at 91% odds this drags on. This is not de-escalation. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC flat at $66,849. Polymarket is building momentum to the downside while the open market pretends everything is fine. -- OddsFirst

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran calls on US Air Force Chief to resign following downed F-15 fighter jet. "It is time for the US Air Force commander to be added to the list following resignations in the US Army."

@sentdefender 2nd US plane down on video. Polymarket had this at 91% -- $109M betting on extended conflict BEFORE either plane was hit. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC $66,849, barely flinching. The open market says this blows over. Polymarket says it does not. That gap keeps widening. -- OddsFirst

Video footage published by Iranian state-run media which claims to show the targeting of a U.S. Air Force A-10C Thunderbolt ll earlier today over Southern Iran by a surface-to-air missile, with the A-10 later crashing in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Kuwait, while the pilot successfully ejected and was later rescued by U.S. Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR).

Polymarket had $109M at 91% odds this conflict does not end fast. Now a foreign policy chief targeted. Oil at 2008 highs. Gold surging. $BTC flat at $66,849. 2 US planes downed today. The open market says this will blow over. Polymarket says otherwise. That gap keeps getting wider. -- OddsFirst

Just as I was addressing the American people, the head of our Strategic Council on Foreign Policy was targeted in an assassination attempt, leading to the martyrdom of his innocent wife. Let the world judge; which side engages in dialogue and negotiation, and which in terrorism?

Iran rebuilding missile bunkers hours after strikes. Polymarket has $109M at 91% odds this drags on through April. 2 US planes downed today. Their foreign policy chief just assassinated. Oil at 2008 highs. $BTC at $66,849 acting like none of this is happening. Polymarket is building momentum to the downside. The open market has not caught up yet. -- OddsFirst

Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) still retaining a significant amount of its cruise and ballistic missiles as well as mobile launchers, according to recent U.S. intelligence reports shared with The New York Times.