Philip Swift

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As expected, a textbook squeeze! Shorts were caught offside.

Funding rates have been increasingly negative over the past few days...though price has climbed higher. Those traders going short likely feeling some pain. Will be interesting to see how this one resolves.

@ForceToRegister That's the doomer trade. It's possible, but I think it will only happen in patches. Biggest driver will be the cultural shift of a new, more mobile, digital-focussed generation that seeks alternative assets imo.

@PositiveCrypto dont forget AI and humanoid job replacement and people losing jobs and cant pay mortages so forced sales of properties hitting the market hard...

I think exact timing will vary by country, but it increasingly feels like real estate will soon enter terminal decline. Main drivers: preference for liquid & portable assets, population decline, affordability crisis.

At a time when wars are going to create inflation, I want to hold a hard asset with fixed supply.

From last month's newsletter:

In last month's BM Pro newsletter, I spoke about the need for BTC to range after such a sharp move down to $60k. BTC will eventually break out, but despite US-Iran events, we're still in the range Markets often need time after major moves. Traders and investors need patience.

This is a wild chart, given the energy-dependent future we are heading into.

Ducking beneath Realized Price / 200WMA / others also takes us to the $40k's area. I hear you on CVDD Balanced Price metrics specifically 👍. Broader point: currently looks like a decent area to long-term stack, risk we head lower to $40k's 'great value' area, but unlikely much lower than that imo.

CVDD is not well constructed (a nonsense denominator), and Balance Price I also consider highly superseded after our findings in cointime economics. Even if did we go to $40ks, those price levels are erroneous and coincidental at best, not indicative of actual fundamental support imho.

Was speaking to @filbfilb about his recent analysis post. BTC is already in good value territory from a long-term perspective, but I think extreme value sits in the $40k's region. Sustained drops below that area feel somewhat unrealistic imo. This would line up with tools like CVDD ($40k currently) and Balanced Price ($47k currently), which identify cycle extremes, aka market floors - as well as other data sets. No guarantee we have to head down there, as market already oversold, but that's about as low as I could realistically see us going if we did drop from current levels.

Sorry for being quiet recently. I've been busy building - which is what I really enjoy. Will share soon what I've been working on and will generally get back to sharing more on here 🙏

Apart from the initial flush after the $127k high, Binance funding rates have remained broadly neutral throughout the move down... until the past few days. Binance now getting consistent negative funding rates. Traders well and truly spooked.

3/ The Puell Multiple is moving toward its green zone, which means miners are earning well below their 1-year average. Many miners will be feeling the pressure. The strongest will survive.

2/ We've just had one of the largest negative Difficulty adjustments since 2021. A drop of 11.16%.

1/ Miners are having a tough time right now. Hashrate has been dropping sharply. Many miners probably switching off machines.

@twrapps For sure that would be better value, it's at $58k! But it's possible we don't get there. bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/200-wee…

@PositiveCrypto I'd say better value is to be had under the 200wma

BTC can always go lower, and some cycle metrics suggest ~$50k is possible, but over the past couple of days I've seen a lot of bearish consensus that BTC will be much lower in the coming months. Maybe it will, but we're certainly in value territory <$75K.

@OboteSan It went down a bit and then went up loads in 2023 - 2025

@PositiveCrypto What's happened in late 2022 though?

Bitcoin now trading down at Strategy's average cost basis (break-even) is a decent sign that we're in value territory for BTC.