Michael Gordon

Here's how it actually may play out from July (merger agreement signed and announced) to November (Tesla shareholder vote): - The conversion ratio locks in right at announcement (the July 15 in my fast-track scenario). Let's say it's "X number of" SpaceX shares for each Tesla share. That ratio is fixed in the agreement and doesn't change. - Merger arbitrage kicks in immediately and enforces a super-tight relationship between the two stocks. Professional arb funds buy Tesla shares and short SpaceX shares (in the exact ratio) to capture the tiny "deal spread." This forces Tesla's price to trade at approximately (SpaceX price × ratio) minus a very small discount. Any deviation gets traded away in seconds. - The spread shrinks fast — especially in this case, with Elon controlling both, Texas law, and a friendly deal. Deal-break risk is tiny, so the discount could be just 1-3% right after announcement and drop to near zero by the vote. That's why the pricing feels "set" in July. - BUT the absolute price levels are NOT frozen or range-bound. SpaceX's stock can still swing hard on its own news (Starship tests, Starlink revenue, launches, contracts, macro moves). Tesla's stock will simply ride along in near-perfect lockstep, scaled by the ratio. If SpaceX rallies 20% on great Starlink numbers, Tesla will jump ~20% too (minus the shrinking spread). Same for drops. They move together like one combined entity, but the pair as a whole can trend up or down a lot. Tesla holders effectively get the upside of a rising SpaceX valuation between July and closing. In short: The July agreement ties them together tightly (minimal independent volatility or arb opportunities), but they still float with real-world news and performance until the vote. With the supposed ultra-short ~4-month timeline above and sky-high deal certainty here, the linkage would be even stronger than in a typical mega-merger. The "sit at the merger price" idea is a good intuition for how stable the *relative* value feels, but the absolute prices stay dynamic. Retail holders on both sides get to ride the combined upside (or downside) together.

Elon Musk: "We will go beyond the Moon and Mars. Do you want a trip to Saturn? If you want it, you can have it."

How close does Iran have to be to be able to strike the UK? The answer is that they could, theoretically, already be able to do it. Do people still want to do nothing? Honest question.