Hand of God

Hello Senator. This has already been pointed out but allow us to reemphasize that: 33% of Arizona’s gasoline — including the entire Phoenix refined products market — comes from California refineries via pipeline. With CA Democrat energy policy forcing the closure of major facilities, this dependency will mean higher prices & tighter supply ahead. Arizona has ZERO refineries of its own. With your military background - you of all people recognize that recent events have shown how unwise it is to allow an economy to be at risk of foreign choke points half way across the world. AZ is no different. We recommend AZ decouple itself from CA energy policy as soon as possible. Thank you for sharing your views. We will certainly keep them in mind.

@FurkanCCTV This post won't age well. - Me in 3 months

Die Wall Street hat eine Formel entwickelt, die vorhersagt, wann Trump einknickt. Sie heißt TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. Trump knickt immer ein. Die Formel hat Tradern im letzten Jahr Milliarden eingebracht. Man kauft, wenn Trump eskaliert. Man wartet. Man verkauft, wenn er zurückrudert. Denn er rudert immer zurück. Jetzt hat die Investmentbank BCA Research diese Formel in einen Index gegossen. Den “Trump Pain Point Index”. Er misst den wirtschaftlichen und politischen Druck auf den Präsidenten in einer einzigen Zahl. Die Bestandteile: Inverse Aktienmarktrenditen des S&P 500, Renditen auf 10-jährige US-Staatsanleihen, 30-jährige Hypothekenzinsen, Benzin-Futures, einjährige Inflationserwartungen und Trumps Zustimmungswerte. Sechs Variablen. Eine Zahl. Ein Schmerzindex. Und dieser Index hat gerade zum ersten Mal in seiner Geschichte die Marke von zwei Standardabweichungen über dem Durchschnitt erreicht. Ein statistisches Extremereignis. Die historische Trefferquote ist dabei perfekt. April 2025: Der Index schießt hoch nach den “Liberation Day” Zöllen. Trumps Reaktion: 90-Tage-Pause auf fast alle Zölle. September 2025: Neuer Spike während des Government Shutdowns. Trumps Reaktion: Er beendet den Shutdown. November 2025: Der Index steigt nach erneuten Angriffen auf die Fed. Trumps Reaktion: Rückzug. Dezember 2025: Spike nach der Grönland-Drohung. Trumps Reaktion: Er lässt Grönland fallen. März 2026: Der Index erreicht sein Allzeithoch. Trumps Reaktion: Er zieht seine Drohung zurück, iranische Kraftwerke zu bombardieren. Die 48-Stunden-Frist, die er am Samstag gesetzt hatte, wird am Montag auf fünf Tage verlängert. Er spricht plötzlich von “produktiven Gesprächen”. Sechs Spikes. Sechs Rückzieher. Kein einziges Mal hat Trump den Schmerz durchgehalten. Und genau hier wird es gefährlich. Denn jemand hat am Montag gewusst, was kommt. Zwischen 6:49 und 6:50 Uhr morgens New Yorker Zeit wurden Öl-Futures im Wert von 580 Millionen Dollar gehandelt. In einer einzigen Minute. An den fünf Vortagen lag das durchschnittliche Volumen zur selben Uhrzeit bei 700 Kontrakten. An diesem Morgen waren es 6.200. Fünfzehn Minuten später postete Trump auf Truth Social, dass er die Bombardierung pausiere. Der Ölpreis fiel sofort um 15 Prozent. Der Dow sprang über 1.000 Punkte nach oben. 1,7 Billionen Dollar Marktkapitalisierung wurden in Minuten geschaffen. Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman schrieb dazu einen einzigen Satz: “Wir haben ein anderes Wort für Situationen, in denen Personen mit Zugang zu vertraulichen Informationen über die nationale Sicherheit diese für Profit ausnutzen. Das Wort ist Landesverrat.” Die Financial Times schätzt, dass parallel zu den Öl-Futures auch S&P 500 Futures im Wert von 1,5 Milliarden Dollar in demselben Zeitfenster gehandelt wurden. Auf der Wettplattform Polymarket platzierten acht Nutzer zeitgleich verdächtige Wetten auf einen Waffenstillstand. Und Irans Parlamentssprecher Ghalibaf? Er nannte Trumps Behauptung über produktive Gespräche ein Zitat: “Fake News zur Manipulation der Finanzmärkte.” Das ist der Punkt, an dem die TACO-Formel ein Problem bekommt. Zölle sind ein Schalter. Trump dreht ihn an, die Märkte fallen, er dreht ihn wieder aus, die Märkte steigen. Dieselbe Logik funktionierte bei jedem Rückzieher der letzten 15 Monate. Aber Krieg lässt sich nicht per Social Media Post beenden. Bloomberg schreibt: “Das TACO-Regime an den US-Aktienmärkten, in dem jeder Rückgang eine Kaufgelegenheit war, könnte offiziell vorbei sein.” Fortune bringt es auf den Punkt: TACO hat eine versteckte Annahme. Es funktioniert nur, wenn die Gegenseite genauso schnell runterfahren will wie Trump. Iran will aber nicht. Teheran hat gestern Trumps 15-Punkte-Friedensplan abgelehnt und den Krieg fortgesetzt. Die Zahlen zeigen, warum der Druck so hoch ist wie nie. Trumps Zustimmung liegt bei 36 Prozent, dem tiefsten Wert seiner zweiten Amtszeit laut Reuters/Ipsos. Seine wirtschaftliche Zustimmung ist auf 29 Prozent gefallen. Das ist niedriger als jeder Wert, den Joe Biden jemals hatte. Nur 27 Prozent der Amerikaner sind mit Trumps Umgang mit den Benzinpreisen zufrieden. Der US-Durchschnittspreis pro Gallone liegt bei 3,98 Dollar. Vor einem Monat waren es 2,93 Dollar. BCA-Chefstratege Marko Papic warnt: Wenn der Konflikt nicht innerhalb von 7 bis 10 Tagen gelöst wird, droht ein globaler wirtschaftlicher Shutdown. Morgan Stanleys Chefanlagestrategin Lisa Shalett schreibt in einer Kundennotiz von einem Szenario, das sie “chaotisches Abgleiten in Richtung Stagflation” nennt. Steigende Ölpreise würden die Nachfrage zerstören und das globale Wachstum bremsen, während die Inflation gleichzeitig steige. Die Wall Street hat in den letzten 15 Monaten eine perfekte Formel gefunden, um Trumps Verhalten vorherzusagen. Sie hat damit Milliarden verdient. Aber jetzt kennt auch die Gegenseite die Formel. Iran weiß, dass Trump bei zwei Standardabweichungen einknickt. Die ganze Welt weiß es. Und ein Präsident, dessen Schmerzgrenze öffentlich berechenbar ist, hat seine stärkste Verhandlungsposition bereits verloren. In diesen Recherchen steckt eine Menge Arbeit. Wenn dich solche Makro Insights interessieren und dir helfen, interagiere gerne mit dem Post. 🧡

"Female bodies are just as strong and fast and capable as male bodies." - State Senator Lindsay Williams in PA today If this were the case, why were women's sports created in the first place? They just say words and expect us to nod along.

⏳️If you ever feel like you want to refocus on what really matters, here's a recommended song list: There Goes My Life - Kenny Chesney Don't take the girl - Tim McGraw Don't Blink - Kenny Chesney Til You Can't - Cody Johnson Cats in the Cradle - Harry Chapin The Good Stuff - Kenny Chesney Love Them While You Can - Gaither Vocal Band I Ain't Going Nowhere - Parker McCollum

President Trump Paves the Way for the FHFA to Reform and Reduce GSE Capital Requirements - Donald Layton "On March 13, President Trump issued two housing-related executive orders (EOs), one of which is dedicated to promoting access to mortgage credit, specifically its pricing, terms, and availability.1 This EO demonstrates its commitment to housing affordability by stating that “It is the policy of the United States to improve the availability and affordability of mortgage credit.” It also lists key principles for the administration (e.g., “Every American…should have access to a mortgage loan…at a rate commensurate with his or her creditworthiness.”), and includes a list of specific action topics. This article argues that the expressed intent of this EO effectively paves the way for — and implicitly calls for — the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to finally significantly reform and reduce the much-criticized regulatory minimum capital requirement rule that has applied to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F&F), the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), since late 2020. Such a reform of the existing capital requirement rule, known as the Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework (ERCF), aims to address its main weaknesses. A well-designed reform would lead to lower mortgage rates and cause F&F to retain less mortgage credit risk, all while maintaining F&F’s safety and soundness. Although developing such a simplified and reformed capital rule is often seen as a challenging and time-consuming regulatory task, it might well be relatively straightforward..." $FNMA $FMCC Full article: furmancenter.org/publication/pr…

@andreapell1989 @BillAckman In fairness, if you actually check out the art of the deal pitch that Bill Ackman briefed a while back, it doesn't actually have Fannie Mae raching capitalization until the end of 2026 and Freddie at the end of 2027.

@TylerEHand @BillAckman Why is the plan taking so long?????? Tell us.

🌐Robert Bowes has more connections than you'd guess, and his endorsement of @BillAckman on this is telling. If you want to know where the skeletons are hidden, a guy with this resume probably knows... Government Service: • Senior Advisor, Office of Personnel Management (OPM): Managed federal employee health and insurance programs/portfolios. • Senior Advisor / Appointee, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD): Joined January 2017. Focused on efforts to assist FHA (Federal Housing Administration) borrowers and restore capital adequacy to protect taxpayers. • 2016 Trump Campaign: Served as a Field Director. • 2020 Nomination: President Trump announced intent to nominate him as a Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (nomination did not result in confirmation). Private Sector / Corporate Finance Experience: • Director of Counterparty Risk, Fannie Mae (FNMA): Managed relationships with mortgage insurers, banks, and derivative counterparties handling significant shared mortgage and interest-rate risk obligations. • Vice President, Chase Manhattan Bank (predecessor to JPMorgan Chase): Worked in financial institutions and corporate finance areas. 🔹@Robert_B_Bowes has been highly critical of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ("F2") conservatorship, particularly the Net Worth Sweep implemented in 2012. He views it as an illegitimate "taking" of shareholder property, enabled by accounting manipulation to justify and perpetuate government control. Bowes has repeatedly called the 2012 amendment (which redirected 100% of F2's quarterly profits to Treasury in lieu of the original 10% dividend on senior preferred stock) a unilateral power grab by the Obama Treasury. He argues it was not a legitimate settlement for troubled assets but an effort to prevent the GSEs from recapitalizing and exiting conservatorship. 🔹Bowes claims the Obama Treasury (under Tim Geithner, building on Hank Paulson's approach) directed F2, via consultants like BlackRock and Blackstone, to aggressively book non-cash credit losses and write down Deferred Tax Assets. 🔹He has also stated that "restitution is not barred by HERA" in ongoing shareholder litigation (e.g., Fairholme / Cooper & Kirk appeals), and that the entire conservatorship-related cases should be dropped in favor of restitution. He echoes President Trump's past description of the NWS as "theft" from shareholders and supports ending the conservatorship while restoring shareholder rights. President Trump has already called ongoing conservatorship "socialism" - the question is when he's going to end it. $FNMA $FMCC

Cobb County Police Body Cam January 4, 2021 11pm (40:14) Ruby Freeman: …“and he said and they was saying the count was low, it was really low and is there ah are all of the ballots counted? And so we got like there was a few more and we can get those in the morning because there wasn’t that many. They said well count as many as you can – count all of them you know. So my daughter said Mommy, get on the scanner. But I didn’t scan so she said just do it so we could get on outta here. So that was when even nobody else was taking because there were no more work to be done so we said we can’t! And they said lucky - because nobody was here. And when they said that, BOOM under the table. Cut the zip ties to scan them so the number would go up, so that’s how the number was created, by the ballots going through the scanner. So when all of them were done, we got the final count and we put them back in the bucket and the boxes and the bucket and zip ties and put ‘em back under the table. So that’s the reason the ballots came from under the table and we re-opened them up.”

Interesting & worth noting. I encourage you to keep sharing accurate info (whether or not it supports your thesis) & asking smart questions. People will respect you for it. These investments are complex & the issues are difficult to understand..There are too few common sense voices educating & advocating for the potentially millions of (direct & beneficial) retail shareholders..

@GeriPerna Literally nobody worked in electronics at Macy's and retired to support his family after 30 years. Get bent.

When I worked at Macy's back in the 80's, people who worked there raised families on what they made. It was their career. I remember the guy in electronics retired after 30 years, and my boss in the cash office did the same. The guys who worked in the suit department did very well for themselves. Despite that, the store profited greatly every year, and we were given a beautiful Christmas party in appreciation. What changed in this country? When did it become nearly impossible to support oneself at a job that didn't require a degree or technical school?

This is: The architect of ObamaCare, MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, calling the Unaffordable Care Act a scam and the American voter “stupid” not once, not twice, but three times. “Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage,” The Unaffordable Care Act was written in a way that deliberately and maliciously deceived, robbed, extorted, and blackmailed the American public, including the (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. In other words: You have been robbed, deceived, blackmailed, extorted, and defrauded by Jonathan Gruber, Barack Obama, John Roberts, and—thumb up his ass—John McCain. All captured on videotape.

This from Greenpeace co-founder, Dr. Patrick Moore "The amount of fossil fuels required to build the wind and solar infrastructure makes wind and solar A PARASITE on the larger economy" only to support the stupid idea that they are renewable Listen to his explanation 🔊

I've been analyzing the stock market for 50 years I manage billions of dollars and I'm an expert in macroeconomics Here's exactly what will happen from here with the Iran situation: I have no fucking idea

#25 is a killer.

Et si Trump avait tout préparé depuis le début de son mandat ? Pas une 3ème guerre mondiale. Pas le Grand Israël. Pas le chaos. Un retrait stratégique déguisé en guerre. Méthodique. Documenté. Et que personne ne voit venir. (x/12) 1/Commençons par ce que tout le monde rate. Depuis le 28 février, on débat : escalade ou désescalade ? Trump fou ou génie ? Netanyahu qui tire les ficelles ? Mauvaises questions. Toutes. La bonne question : qu'est-ce que Trump gagne dans tous les scénarios ? La réponse est toujours la même. Il sort du Moyen-Orient. Proprement. En déclarant victoire. 2/Le double thinking : son arme principale Trump annonce des négociations "très productives" avec l'Iran. L'Iran dément dans la minute. Le pétrole chute quand même. Trump obtient une pause de 5 jours sans rien céder. Ce n'est pas de la confusion. C'est de la coercition calculée. Il parle aux marchés, aux alliés du Golfe, à l'opinion publique américaine et à Xi simultanément. Avec des messages différents pour chacun. Le tout en 280 caractères. 3/La séquence que personne ne relie entre eux 🇻🇪 Janvier 2026 — Venezuela capturé en 2 heures. Hémisphère occidental fermé. Monroe Doctrine réactivée officiellement dans la NSS 2025. 🇪🇺 Juin 2025 — OTAN 5% acté à La Haye. Les Européens paient leur défense. Les US se désengagent de la dissuasion conventionnelle européenne. 🇮🇷 Février 2026 — Epic Fury. Iran neutralisé militairement. Clés du Moyen-Orient passées à Israël et au Golfe via les Accords d'Abraham. Trois théâtres. Trois opérations. Un seul objectif : libérer les ressources américaines pour le Pacifique. 4/La preuve n'est pas dans ses tweets Elle est dans ses documents officiels. La Heritage Foundation, le cerveau de l'administration l'a écrit noir sur blanc après le sommet NATO de La Haye : "Ces augmentations de dépenses aideront les Européens à prendre la responsabilité principale de la défense conventionnelle de l'Europe, libérant les ressources américaines pour l'Indo-Pacifique." Ce n'est pas une théorie. C'est la doctrine officielle de l'administration. 5/Le 5% NATO : pas ce que vous croyez Tout le monde croit que Trump veut une Europe forte. Faux. Le Peterson Institute l'a documenté : Trump impose une demande qu'aucune démocratie européenne ne peut satisfaire économiquement, pour avoir un prétexte de retrait propre. Résultat obtenu : l'Europe réarme. Les US se retirent. Et Trump peut dire "vous ne payiez pas, j'avais raison depuis le début." Il transforme son départ en victoire politique domestique. 6/"Mais Trump est piégé par Netanyahu" Non. Tulsi Gabbard, sa propre directrice du renseignement a dit au Congrès : "Les objectifs du président sont différents de ceux du gouvernement israélien." Trump a dit lui-même au Premier ministre japonais : "J'ai dit à Netanyahu d'arrêter d'attaquer les infrastructures pétrolières." Un homme piégé ne dit pas ça à ses alliés asiatiques. Netanyahu veut détruire l'Iran définitivement. Trump veut l'affaiblir suffisamment pour partir. Ce ne sont pas les mêmes objectifs. Les fissures sont publiques et documentées. 7/La Chine : le vrai enjeu sous-jacent 80% du pétrole iranien allait en Chine. 17% des importations chinoises totales venaient d'Iran et du Venezuela combinés. Trump a coupé les deux en 6 semaines. Pas pour ruiner la Chine. Pour l'amener à la table. La NSS 2025 le dit explicitement : l'objectif avec Beijing est "une relation économique mutuellement avantageuse." La disruption d'Hormuz est le levier de négociation. Xi doit aider à rouvrir le Détroit pour obtenir son sommet avec Trump. C'est la condition posée publiquement. Coercition énergétique à échelle historique. 8/Et Taiwan dans tout ça ? Le renseignement US est formel : Xi a ordonné à l'APL d'être prête à envahir d'ici 2027. Chaque porte-avions en mer d'Arabie est un porte-avions manquant en mer de Chine. Chaque intercepteur THAAD brûlé sur un drone iranien à 20 000$ est un intercepteur manquant face aux missiles hypersoniques chinois. Trump le sait. C'est pour ça qu'il veut sortir maintenant. Pas dans deux ans. L'horloge tourne. La sienne ET celle de Xi. 9/Ce que ça veut dire pour Dubai et le Golfe Les EAU ont absorbé 338 missiles balistiques et 1 740 drones en 24 jours. Pourquoi les Émirats ne se sont-ils pas retournés contre Washington ? Parce qu'ils comprennent le deal implicite : supportez la guerre maintenant, et vous héritez de la sécurité régionale ensuite. Sans présence US permanente. L'Iran affaibli pour une génération. C'est exactement ce que Sheikh Mohammed a voulu depuis les Accords d'Abraham. 10/Ce que ça veut dire pour la suite, concrètement Court terme (2-4 semaines) : sortie déguisée en victoire. Trump déclare avoir "détruit l'armée iranienne." Hormuz se rouvre. Les frappes diminuent progressivement. Moyen terme (3-6 mois) : sommet Trump-Xi. Deal économique historique. Pétrole américain contre terres rares chinoises. Taiwan comme monnaie d'échange implicite. Pétrole qui retombe vers 70-80$. Long terme (12-18 mois) : redéploiement complet dans le Pacifique. L'OTAN gère l'Europe. Le Golfe gère le Moyen-Orient. Les US gèrent le Pacifique. La carte du monde se redessine. En silence. 11/Pourquoi ni le mainstream ni la "réinformation" ne voient ça Le mainstream compte les missiles et parle de chaos. Il confond le bruit tactique avec l'absence de stratégie. La réinformation cherche qui tire les ficelles de qui, Epstein, Rothschild, Grand Israël. Elle substitue une grille émotionnelle à une grille analytique. Les deux ont tort pour la même raison : ils regardent les effets, pas la direction du mouvement. 12/La conclusion America First n'a jamais signifié isolationnisme. Ça signifie : utiliser la force une dernière fois, partout où nécessaire, pour se retirer de tous les théâtres secondaires et concentrer toute la puissance américaine là où l'enjeu est existentiel. Venezuela. Iran. OTAN. Tout converge vers le même point de fuite : Le deal du siècle avec Xi. Avant Taiwan. Avant 2027.

@rule_of_law_guy is worth following if you believe the F2 saga is going to end in Trump keeping promises, as @BillAckman has touted... a summary: The recent $200 billion GSE MBS repurchase program is actually a win-win that boosts GSE profits through interest-rate arbitrage (cheap short-term borrowing to buy higher-yielding MBS). It benefits shareholders and the broader mortgage market. This kind of transaction doesn't require conservatorship. Treasury, as the majority owner, could propose and approve the exact same deal after release, because it provides a pro-rata benefit to all shareholders (not just a special perk for the government). ROLG compares it to standard corporate governance rules (even "going private" deals get court approval if they're fair to minorities). The "control for national housing policy" narrative is therefore "gibberish" and "an absurd canard." (Moody language, but potentially fair). Secondary reasons for the slow pace of release: other Trump priorities (tariffs, foreign policy) and the current FHFA director @pulte focusing on fraud investigations rather than exit planning (e.g., no permanent Fannie CEO yet). Worth the 3 minute read.

For shits and giggles, I decided to see just how hard it would be to replace my birth certificate, Social Security card, AND my marriage license, since Democrats think women are too stupid to figure it out. Here's how it went: 1. Birth certificate: Contacted the health department of the county where I was born. They OVERNIGHTED a certified copy to me the next day - total cost, $14. 2. SS Card: Contacted Social Security on their site. They asked if I was sure I needed the card, since I 'won't likely be asked for it.' I went ahead and got it - took five business days to arrive - total cost, $0. 3. Marriage License: Went to the 'vital docs' site of the county where we were hitched. Filled everything out online, arrived in three days - total cost, $5. It cost less than $20 to obtain all three certified/legal documents, and it took less than five business days to receive them. Note: if I had lived where I was born or married, it would have been a day. Tops. Anyone telling you this is too hard or unfair is lying and hiding the real reason they want to stop Voter ID. I know you guys knew that already... lol

.@BillAckman bought $FNMA at $2.29 in 2013. Wall Street ignored him. The government fought him. He's held for 12 years. The plan he laid out a decade ago is now being executed. The government put $191B into Fannie and Freddie during the crisis & got $301B back. Then in 2012 they changed the deal. Took 100% of profits. Every quarter. No end date. Ackman saw the setup and went long. What most people get wrong: Fannie Mae is not "the company that blew up in 2008." What blew up was a leveraged trading book that no longer exists. What's left is a toll road on 70% of American mortgages. These are high quality borrowers & not subprime. Ackman's plan has three steps. 1) Forgive the senior preferred (Treasury's already been more than repaid). Convert Treasury's warrants into equity. The government becomes the largest shareholder. 2) Relist on NYSE. These stocks already trade on pink sheets. Relisting brings in institutional money, analyst coverage, and a real market. Ackman's price range: $23-$47 vs. $5.50 today. 3) Sequential IPOs. Fannie first, Freddie second. Government sells down its stake gradually over five years. Patience here is worth hundreds of billions. End state: $300B in value for taxpayers through the equity position alone. He's done this playbook before with GGP, a bankrupt mall company. He put in $60M, restructured it, relisted on NYSE, and turned it into $1.6B+. Why now: No Congressional action needed. Treasury and FHFA can do this alone. Both companies have been quietly rebuilding capital and hiring for what comes next.

@DanielSyck @firewill65 @michaeljburry Burry told you the level he would buy back in, and when it hit that level, he bought. I don't think he's waiting for it to tank.

@TylerEHand @firewill65 @michaeljburry Wouldn't that mean that F2 should crash then before we buy lol?

🚨@michaeljburry just went "Lights Out" on X. His "going dark" episodes often coincide with frothy periods and precede volatility or corrections (most clearly 2021 to 2022 bear market; crypto collapse), but his timing is frequently early. Burry went dark right before the 2022 sell-off and before the pre-COVID crash. These often coincide with major buys in sectors set to benefit. He believes something big is brewing, and likely doesn't want the barrage of commentary, questions, and prefers to use his Substack instead. That said, 3 of his final 8 posts on X are in full support of buying $FNMA and $FMCC as the government prepares for uplist and eventual release from conservatorship, each of which will significantly increase share price. Discounting his non-market/stock posts before going dark (including music videos), his THREE FINAL POSTS throw his weight behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchases and double down on his agreement with @BillAckman that "treating shareholders fairly here is about much, much more than these two companies." I'm encouraged. x.com/michaeljburry/… x.com/michaeljburry/… x.com/michaeljburry/… @JonOksenholt