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how to find the best weather traders on @Polymarket kyle just did a deep dive into weather markets, and the data shows that 24 hours before resolution, the pricing accuracy is still only 84.8% that means the broader market is systematically mispricing raw weather data, leaving a huge inefficiency gap on the table to isolate the exact wallets consistently extracting this alpha, he ran a strict filter: - daily weather markets - scooping up cheap underdogs at 1c–30c - exclude bots - he looked for real manual operators with over $10k in pnl - at least 60 days of consistent maker/taker flow the result is a clean list of sharps, they are relying on pure structural edge the parity app makes tracking these specific wallets incredibly smooth check his full setup in the post below

@Mikocrypto11 这不是翻译英文区的文章吗 @AlterEgo_eth

很多人做 Polymarket 天气盘，是看到 forecast 之后，直接去买那个“最可能命中”的温度 但问题在于，温度本身并不稳定 哪怕 forecast 方向没错，只要偏 1°C，单子就可能直接亏掉 所以真正更值得看的，反而是 temperature laddering 这套策略不是押一个精确温度 而是同时买几个相邻温度档位的 YES 比如 forecast 预期是 31°C，那就不是只买 31°C 而是把 30°C、31°C、32°C 一起买进去 本质上，你买的不是“一个点”，而是 forecast 分布的中心区域，外加两边的轻微偏差 这套东西的数学也很直观 假设： 30°C 价格是 17¢ 31°C 价格是 35¢ 32°C 价格是 27¢ 三档一共花 79¢ 最后只要其中一个命中，就按 $1 兑付 整体 ROI 大约是 26.5% 更关键的是，你对 forecast 小幅偏移的容错，明显变高了 所以这套策略最核心的地方，不是“更会预测天气” 而是： 模型已经先帮你框出了合理区间，你真正交易的是这个区间里，市场对各个 bucket 的错价 不是赌天气 是赌市场怎么把这一段温度分布定错了 还有一个很关键的变量，是离结算还有多久 越远离 resolution，forecast 的不确定性越高 所以仓位不能一开始就打满 更合理的节奏是： 距离结算 48 小时 只上最大仓位的 30% 距离结算 24 小时 上到 60% 距离结算 8 小时以内 再打到 100% 这样做的意义很简单： 如果中间 forecast 发生漂移，你的风险不会在最早期就暴露太满 如果 forecast 一直稳定，那就顺着时间继续加仓 还有一点很多人会忽略： 不是每个城市都值得用同样的仓位 同样的 edge，放在不同城市，真实风险完全不是一回事 像 Jeddah、Buenos Aires 的秋冬、Miami 的夏季， 这类城市温度区间更稳定，模型误差更小，更适合按完整计算仓位去做 Ankara、London 这种，属于中等稳定性，仓位可以适当收一点，进场也要更挑 Hong Kong、Shanghai 的春季，Seoul 的春夏，Chicago 的春季，这些地方波动更大，模型分歧也更频繁 同样的 setup，仓位最好缩到正常的 1/2 甚至 1/3 说到底，天气盘里最容易亏钱的人，往往不是 forecast 看错了，而是把“单点预测”当成了“确定答案” 而真正更稳的做法，不是去赌某一个温度一定命中，而是围绕模型已经给出的概率中心，把相邻区间一起吃下来 你觉得天气盘里真正更大的 edge，是 forecast 本身，还是 bucket 之间一直被市场定错的相对价格？

Exchange upgrades go live on April 28 at 11am UTC. ~1 hour of downtime. The v1 orderbook gets cleared and all open limit orders are cancelled. Funds and positions are safe. Trading via API? Update to the latest SDK before then. V1 clients stop working after cutover. Dev migration guide: poly.market/dznOlVu Users guide: poly.market/DaxnRAA

@Mikocrypto11 我现在也是买no

大多数人在 Polymarket 的天气盘里都在买 YES 这个账户不一样 [738925] 一直在买 NO 而且专挑 1–2 cent 的温度盘下手，全球到处做 Wellington 100x Shanghai 100x Tokyo 100x 这不是靠某一笔暴击 而是已经重复了 5,091 次结算，累计利润做到 $12,300+ 这类账户最有意思的地方在于，他不是在追最热门的天气结果，也不是在赌“会不会刚好命中” 他做的恰恰相反： 市场不断把某些温度结果定得太乐观，他就不断去买 NO，然后一笔一笔把这些错误回收回来 说白了，别人买的是“可能发生”，他买的是“通常不会发生” 而市场，居然一直在重复犯同样的错 你觉得这种天气盘账户最核心的 edge，是更懂概率分布，还是更懂市场为什么会反复高估 YES？

@Vvtentt101 预测值似乎没有那么重要，重要的是观察到事件价格随着什么因子在变化，哪个数据源的变化更接近这个变量因子

NASA publishes the number in 2 weeks. The data behind it is available today Every month NASA releases one figure the global temperature anomaly Millions of data points, thousands of weather stations, one number. And on Polymarket, that number decides who's in the green Here's the thing: NASA's algorithm is fully open source. The data is public How it works: NOAA collects raw station data (GHCN v4) >> sends it to NASA >> NASA runs GISTEMP v4 >> publishes the number roughly 2 weeks after month's end But NOAA updates GHCN v4 daily. Which means the data NASA will use is already sitting on a public server What this gives you: Download fresh GHCN v4 >> run GISTEMP locally >> get an early estimate of the anomaly days before the official release Where the risk is: Late-reporting stations. Some data arrives at NOAA after you've already run your calculation. The final number can shift This isn't predicting the future. It's a better estimate of something that's already almost known

当结果最终显现，那不过是预测市场的葬礼 真正的盛宴，只发生在确定性尚未降临的每一个瞬间 致poly

@runes_leo 我去 一直用的日本节点

Polymarket 今早更新了 Geoblock 文档，日本 IP 的前端网页进不去了。 群里一上午都在讨论是不是 API 也一起封了。翻完官方文档，分级才是关键。 PM 这次把地区限制拆成两档： • 仅前端受限 — 网页进不去，SDK/API 下单照常 • 完全受限 — 全链路都挡 日本被归到第一档。实测： • 前端 UI：今天起访问不了 • API 下单：照常 • Proxy wallet 直接转账 + activate 资金：没受影响 • 土耳其 IP 可完整访问前端作为兜底 下次看到 PM 地区封禁消息，先去 docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/… 翻一眼分级表再判断影响面，别只看网页能不能打开。 --- 这类 PM 平台细节每天在我社群里被实测、讨论、复盘，我把精华总结到频道： 💬 讨论群 t.me/runesgang 📡 每日精华频道 t.me/runesgangalpha 🔗 想自己扒数据研究地址 → Polymarket 入口 polymarket.com/?r=tggroupdige…

He turns $14 into $2500 predicting the weather. 2,876 bets. Still going The strategy is simple: >> Finds weather markets where (Yes) costs 1-6¢ >> Bets $15-200 per position >> Waits for the forecast to confirm Real trades: >> Paris, 19°C: invested $1,600 >> returned $32,010 (+1,900%) >> Hong Kong, <15°C: invested $883 >> returned $14,078 (+1,494%) >> London, 63-64°F: invested $197 >> returned $7,342 (+3,616%) >> New York, 48°F+: invested $14 >> returned $2,520 (+17,725%) 2,876 predictions. Meteorologist by profession he actually knows the forecast Everything is public The edge isn't luck it's expertise. He sees when the market prices a temperature at 1-5% chance, but the real probability is 80-95% An ordinary trader can outperform any institution if they find the right people and copy their moves his profile: @automatedaitradingbot" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@automatedaitr…

A Polymarket sniper buys weather NO at 0.1¢ and sells at 100¢. 10 cities. $13,500 profit. Still printing. It took him about 6 month to succeed. Parser picks temperature markets most traders ignore, loads NO at 0.1–2¢, and waits. Still open: NYC 54-55°F → in at 1¢, out at 100¢ → +$2,170 SF 76-77°F → in at 0.1¢, out at 100¢ → +$694 Beijing 12°C → in at 10¢, out at 100¢ → +$513 Chicago 76-77°F → in at 0.1¢, out at 100¢ → +$319 Best trade? Wellington NO at 2¢ → turned $60 into $3,000. copy-trade here -> t.me/PolytechTradeB… his profile -> @738925?r=0xSpivach" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@738925?r=0xSp… Are weather markets the most underrated edge on Polymarket right now? In or skip?

Hermes Agent from Nous Research - new standard of AI-trading on Polymarket In the guide, the author beautifully showed how in just 30 minutes to turn the foundation of my Weather Bot into a fully alive, self-learning weather trader It scans 20 cities, calculates EV + Kelly Criterion and trades 24/7 without stopping and without emotions. What is Hermes Agent and why is it currently the best on the market: This is not just another chatbot This is an open self-hosted agent from the Nous Research team (YaRN, Nomos, Psyche), which: • Self-learns - after every complex task it automatically writes itself a skill • Has persistent memory (MEMORY.md + USER.md + SQLite) - never forgets anything • Works 24/7 on a VPS and sends alerts to Telegram OpenClaw is static Hermes has a closed learning loop: every ~15 tool calls it analyzes what worked and improves itself Result? The agent becomes noticeably smarter with every week exactly for your tasks Want exactly the same weather trader that learns from your trades: • Install Hermes (instructions in the article) • Copy 7 prompts • Launch on VPS My repository: github.com/alteregoeth-ai…

@star_okx 可以赌1美元也行

Both OKX and Binance are regulated by multiple regulators. As the UBO of a regulated company, publicly offering a $1 billion bet is hardly professional conduct. I would be curious whether Binance’s regulators consider that acceptable. As for whether you have misled the public and lie to world, the test is actually simple: has your Binance stake been legally separated with your ex-wife or not? Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos have already shown what proper asset separation looks like in a divorce.

Ant Group launches Anvita: AI agents can now hold crypto, trade & settle payments autonomously. Joins Visa, Coinbase x402, Google building agentic commerce onchain. pymnts.com/artificial-int…

Polymarket 这波升级挺大的，主要就两个事儿： 第一，交易系统直接换成了 CTF Exchange V2。 底层引擎做了不少优化，订单结构更简单了，撮合也更快，还支持 1271 签名。简单说就是——以后下单更快、手续费分得更合理，用起来会顺手很多。前端会帮忙把 wrap 这些操作都处理掉，第一次点个授权就行，后面买卖基本是无感的👍 第二，他们自己搞了个稳定币，叫 PUSD（Polymarket USD）。 之前用的是桥接的 USDC.e，现在换成和 Circle 合作的原生 Polygon 稳定币，1:1 锚定 USDC，整体更规范也更安心一点。

claude code教程，讲的非常仔细，新手完全能听懂并且落地，这教程在国内不得收费398，598元？估计还一大堆人抢着买。 静下心看完这一套完整教程，你就能真正用 AI 搭建工作流、实现自动化、处理复杂任务。

HOLY....WHAT!!! Found suspicious weather insider on polymarket Bets only on Chinese cities Has 98.2%-win rate after 300+ predictions Made $9,000 this month We’re only 6 days into April He's either a meteorologist or weather god How is he doing this?

@xiaoqiao6666666 好像领了？

EbuMxHfhiYVE1zZSYJNkbzj92uBVhJCiHhv2CPxcpump He was previously unable to collect fees from his company account, but it has now been transferred to the wallet he publicly announced. Everyone can get back to work. He now has over 20,000 stars, and his GitHub account has over 5,000 stars. github.com/instructkr/cla…

@UnicornBitcoin fomo这个应用是不是匿名交易

有个大哥前两天跟我随口聊了点东西 他说有一单山寨币其实早就想做了，位置挺舒服，但一直没下手 我问为啥，他就笑了一下 说我这种体量，一动就是公开喊单 地址被盯，路径被拆 后面不是交易，是跟全市场博弈 他说这种局打久了，会烦 现在这不就有招了 如果用 Umbra 同样的操作，链上有动静 但没人知道是他 也没人能拼出他在干嘛的各种细节 他说那种感觉挺久没了 就像终于能安静做自己的交易 转账、交易、持仓，全加密 zk + Arcium MPC，速度也没问题

@NFTCPS rug盘啊

Solana上发现一个新链上皇，一年时间赚了500万美金，本月最多一天就赚了近50万美金！ 这几天最赚钱的就是他！ 这哥们儿每天都在印钱，钱包才创建1年多，赚3000万人民币，平均一天10万进账，大A上市公司里也没有几个净利润这么多的，币圈才是超级个体最多的领域，一人一年赚几千万的人不在少数呀！ 我用AI分析了一下他的策略，AI说是机器人，但是他的地址后面有GMGN的标，也有手动操作的成分！ 他的地址： gmgn.ai/sol/address/C7… 这个钱包知道的人还不多

I found 10 free repositories for trading on Polymarket From connecting Claude directly to your account to real-time market analysis and research automation - all free and open-source 1. polymarket-mcp-server: connect Claude directly to Polymarket. 45 tools: market search, analysis, portfolio management and live trading GitHub: github.com/caiovicentino/… 2. last30days-skill: analyzes everything happening on the internet over the last 30 days and finds patterns. Your AI research assistant that helps decide what to bet on based on the latest news GitHub: github.com/mvanhorn/last3… 3. polymarket-assistant-tool: real-time data from Binance and Polymarket simultaneously. 11 indicators showing exactly where the market is heading right now GitHub: github.com/FiatFiorino/po… 4. Firecrawl: turns any website into clean data. Useful for monitoring news that moves markets GitHub: github.com/mendableai/fir… 5. Tavily MCP: search built specifically for AI agents. Structured data instead of HTML noise GitHub: github.com/tavily-ai/tavi… 6. GPT Researcher: autonomous research on any topic with a final report. Useful before major event markets GitHub: github.com/assafelovic/gp… 7. n8n: 400+ integrations, AI nodes. Pipeline: news parsing → filtering → Telegram alert, no code required GitHub: github.com/n8n-io/n8n 8. Huginn: self-hosted monitoring and alerts. Watches your sources 24/7 GitHub: github.com/huginn/huginn 9. pydantic-ai: type-safe agent framework for building production bots GitHub: github.com/pydantic/pydan… 10. fastmcp: MCP server in Python in minutes. Want your own Polymarket integration - start here GitHub: github.com/jlowin/fastmcp Know something useful that's missing - drop it in the replies RT/Like/Bookmark if this was helpful Follow me for more!