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Wolf_Derek
3.5K posts
Wolf_Derek
@fbsferock
Market analyst & Crypto Trader Value Investor & Stock Picker (Small/Mid Caps ) Setups daily + real-time trading DM for collaborations
Sumali Mayıs 2020
540 Sinusundan896 Mga Tagasunod
A little nightly short cleanup wouldn't hurt, I'm eyeing a few long setups, including $RENDER and $NEAR
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$QQQ The probability that we'll test the 200-EMA confluence zone on the daily + golden pocket + VaL is not negligible. A retest of the indicated area + rejection would be a short trigger, in my opinion.
The same goes for $SPY, where I'm already short; a retest + rejection of the indicated area would only further strengthen the case for a broader correction. I expressed at the end of May that I saw clear signs of general market weakness; we're seeing it everywhere. We'll see what happens in the coming days
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"well, the situation appears more complex and potentially dangerous than people think"
$SPY $BTC $DXY
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$BOND $DXY $SPY I've been thinking about this lately, stepping outside of my trading profession for a moment and looking at the macro situation, with yields rising, the dollar holding steady and (I remember at the local low when everyone was calling it 0, I became bullish on the DXY) potentially breaking higher, hitting my second target (since the first was already hit) rising inflation, the likelihood of a rate hike by the Fed, while the markets are at their highest, well, the situation appears more complex and potentially dangerous than people think, in fact I don't see them paying the slightest attention to it. Let's keep that in mind.
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@LSTraderCrypto This is trading too, bro. I explicitly posted to be cautious and that I saw a crash coming soon... 7 days later, here we are. Preserving capital is always trading 🤝x.com/fbsferock/stat…
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
#Crypto I think the situation is clear here on Total 2. We're seeing extreme weakness, and support has been lost. Closing the week below it would be extremely serious. We essentially have three scenarios/triggers here: the bearish thesis (the most likely at this point) is a direct collapse or retest of support, a rejection, and a collapse; the bullish thesis, or at least a short-term bullish thesis, is to reclaim support + VaH and consolidate above it, and only then potentially rally. Keep things simple and clear, adapt, and act accordingly. #Crypto $ETH
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As I mentioned in the TWC Traders Telegram channel, I’ve kept risk and exposure low over the past few days.
The market decline has hurt many portfolios, but without proper risk management, you won’t make money even in a perfect market.
I’m staying patient and waiting for the next high-probability opportunities. Until then, we keep watching.
LSTRADER@LSTraderCrypto
TWC Traders Big Week 🤌🏻 Despite a calm week, we delivered strong results. Especially the $ESPORTS, $SOL, and $BONK analyses provided solid profits. Our Telegram channel continues to perform well throughout May. Join our Telegram via DM: t.me/Lstraderadmiin
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$ETH before vs after 🎯
$BTC before vs after🎯 x.com/i/status/20593…
perhaps one of the most transparent in this space
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
ethereum:native Active swing short, I would have preferred to do it from 2700/2800 (which I'd be willing to do if we see an uptick in the coming weeks), but the gold pocket wasn't reached in the previous crash a few months ago, so why should he give it to me now? CT is trying every way to say that this time it will be different, fueling more reckless decisions. I could absolutely be wrong, be invalidated, and try again with the other theory; we'll see.
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Thoughts💭
If you missed the AI movement and think it's time to buy the dips, I'd like to remind you of this chart I recently published, AI Dominance. We've broken the support and the bands are glowing red after almost three months. The price is now below the PoC. For a bullish recovery, it should bounce, re-enter the triangle, and consolidate above the support. The bearish scenario (the most likely one currently) is to retest the VaH + support, get rejected, and go lower. This scenario is very similar to total2, which actually happened within seven days of me publishing it. So buying the various $FET $NEAR, etc., now doesn't make much sense to me; we're in the middle of nowhere.
$USDT + $USDC dominance is at a high level, we're entering a significant HTF range. We could fill it completely or even break it. I don't know, but I know momentum is strong and, thanks to macroeconomic uncertainties, the likelihood of interest rate hikes, etc., the bias is definitely defensive.
A bottom doesn't form instantly; it takes time, months, a year. Total market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) speaks for itself. June is turning red, we have the 1.44B/1.55B level as a possible bottom area (at least I hope so, LMAO). You'll have time to get aggressive again in an HTF manner, but not now.
Stay clear, calm, and follow what the market says.
I'll continue to send quality setups for scalps/intradays in the meantime, but don't get yourself torn to pieces trying to be the hero.
For $BTC, I talked yesterday about what I think, based on data and analysis (see here x.com/fbsferock/stat… ), will be a good time to buy spot. I started buying back spot at 59k in February. The time it takes for the bottom to build isn't a month long; you'll have the time and calm to position yourself strategically.
Stay alive!
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$WLD Literally the only currency still afloat and up 45% since our entry. Will they launch a nuclear bomb here too like with $ZEC ? 😆 Remember to take profits as you go, even now, don't leave anything to the market👨🏻💻
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$WLD Are we already going to $1? We broke the box. What I wanted, as I said yesterday, was one of the two triggers: breaking the upper box and consolidating above. Breaking it in these dire market conditions is a sign of extreme strength. +63% from entry, hold above and higher. Remember to take profits as you go
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@ParadisLabs Exactly. People forget that even with the cash, they still have to actually find the supply. They're fighting for DRAM allocation against giants, so getting the volumes they need is going to be brutal. From here on it's pure momentum, the math just doesn't back it up
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@fbsferock Yeah fundamentals are weakening now imo. Will be mainly sentiment driven if we go up another 200-300% cos I don't see a way for them to secure enough DRAM for the volumes they need to ship to even match this H1 EBITDA level.
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So glad to see British tech like $RPI get some love:
+21.1% today after releasing H1 2026 earnings note:
-> H1 EBITDA: $38M (+96% YoY)
-> FY EBITDA forecast was $43.7M - so well on track to beat that.
Key driver is $RPI were holding 2025 DRAM inventory, purchased at lower costs vs. current prices.
Their DRAM inventories are expected to be depleted in H2...so could see some margin erosion coming up.
So this current EBITDA/stock price pump looks to be mainly timing related, rather than higher sales volumes.
Regardless, imo they'll still be able to secure inventory even w/ the booming demand rn since they've got existing memory relationships.
Which'll be mainly funded via debt = rising leverage = potential yellow flag for future earnings.
And I don't see a route where higher volumes can offset higher DRAM costs tbh.
For quick maths: they'd need to roughly ~2x H1 volumes (4M) to match current EBITDA levels.
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Personally view this as a good point to take some profits, given the potential upcoming margin erosion via higher DRAM costs.
NFA ofc.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
Raspberry pie is delicious and I want some right now. With whipped cream. $RPI secondary offering today is a HUGE de-risking event: - Sale proceeds of ~£60M, anchored by $ARM - Free-float jumps meaningfully (was only ~26%), which should improve liquidity and reduce future volatility Transforms $RPI from a founder-led charity into a truly public company w/ a diversified institutional base. No longer a meme stock like Bloomberg said a few months ago lol. $ARM's anchor participation is very bullish for $RPI - deeper silicon roadmap collabs possible in edge AI. And imo, the $RPI flywheel (education -> developers -> OEMs -> edge compute) is spinning faster than most think. Longer term, $RPI financials will be defined by: - RP2350 - Raspberry Pi Connect - 1,300+ OEM relationships Edge-AI, industrial IoT, and decentralised compute are real tailwinds. Saying that, I'd be expecting some initial overhang / profit taking pressure in the next 2ish weeks though following the offering.
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@Trader_XO I totally agree, XO, a true insider. Honestly, I've never liked the project. For me, the only true privacy coin is $XMR, but hey, who am I to judge?
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@Rol_oni Thanks for the kind words, friend, much appreciated. Have a good day too🤝
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@fbsferock I’m following you since last Friday Thank’s to Popeye.
I’m really happy to follow you you’re defenetly one of the best ones in this space 🫶
Have a nice day Derek !
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#Crypto On May 29th, I warned that the market was extremely fragile. Total2 had lost its main support and that I expected a retest, rejection, and collapse. The overall market on a monthly basis was showing signs of crumbling. $BTC was extremely weak, $ETH itself, and AI coins were carefully observing AI dominance, setting triggers on both sides.
Exactly one week later, $BTC was 61k, $ETH was below 1.8k, AI coins (see the short on $RENDER in the previous post) and the rest of the sector were even worse. Since June 1st, I've executed a few trades, long on $WLD, and the rest I've published here are all transparent, but I've remained generally cautious. It turned out to be the right move. I hope someone followed the advice and at least preserved their capital.
This is simply the market.
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
#Crypto I think the situation is clear here on Total 2. We're seeing extreme weakness, and support has been lost. Closing the week below it would be extremely serious. We essentially have three scenarios/triggers here: the bearish thesis (the most likely at this point) is a direct collapse or retest of support, a rejection, and a collapse; the bullish thesis, or at least a short-term bullish thesis, is to reclaim support + VaH and consolidate above it, and only then potentially rally. Keep things simple and clear, adapt, and act accordingly. #Crypto $ETH
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