Peter Warren

@Soaringeagle45 @X please don’t algo me more of this because I made the mistake of clicking on it

Western Union $WU is down 70% from its 2021 high. Wall Street has written it off as a dying remittance giant getting eaten by Wise, Remitly, PayPal, and crypto. Our lead researcher, @moxt_, thinks Wall St is missing the second business growing in the background (bookmark this). Here's what he's seeing: Yes, the legacy retail business is shrinking. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $983M, margins compressed to 13% from 18-19%, EPS missed by 35-40%. That part isn't coming back. But it's one of two businesses on the same network. Digital transactions grew 21% YoY and now account for 42% of remittance volume. Travel money and bill pay revenue grew 24%. Management is guiding 2026 to 5-8% revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $1.75-$1.85, the first growth year after multiple years of decline. Either guidance is wrong, or the stock pice is. $WU runs 360,000 active agent locations across 200+ countries and 130 currencies. About 90% of those are outside the U.S., concentrated in the corridors where banking access is weakest and remittance demand is highest. Which means the moat isn't the agents themselves, but what has to exist around them: Money transmitter licenses in nearly every U.S. state plus equivalent permissions in 200+ countries, accumulated over a century. AML, KYC, sanctions screening, and FX conversion infrastructure across 130 currencies means any new entrant is looking at a 5-7 year build to replicate it. So does this network get more or less valuable when money moves onchain? The rest of the payments industry is voting with their checkbooks... - PayPal shipped $PYUSD. - Stripe paid $1.1B for Bridge. - Visa is integrating $USDC for cross-border settlement. - MoneyGram has been running a USDC off-ramp on Stellar since 2022. USDC settles in seconds, but a recipient in rural Mexico or the Philippines still needs pesos. Somebody has to handle the last mile. WU already does. @moxt_ maps four revenue streams: 1. Off-ramp fees from third-party stablecoins ($70-810M at maturity) 2. Working capital release from $USDPT ($300M one-time) 3. Reserve income on USDPT float ($12-18M recurring) 4. Internal FX/wire savings. Owning USDPT is what turns WU from a stablecoin off-ramp partner into a stablecoin company that happens to own the largest off-ramp network in the world. All of that said... the risks are real. State-by-state stablecoin reserve recognition could stall, crypto-native off-ramp specialists could fragment the opportunity, legacy pricing pressure could outpace the pivot, and ~35% of CMT revenue comes from U.S. outflows, which makes immigration policy a macro overlay. None individually kills the opportuntiy - but two together would. So is the current price of ~$9.20 enough to justify a position, or do the risks dominate? @moxt_ put a verdict on it in his latest Milk Road PRO report... To get his buy/sell verdict and the price levels he's watching, check the link in the first comment.