exponentialdave

@hksfho It would appear that way, but actually IREN went down a lot since my last update in November and APP has risen. I didn’t add any APP, and I didn’t sell any IREN.

@xponentialdave you added a lot $APP and trimmed a lot $IREN

2025 Portfolio: +33% Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +250% Holdings: APP 30% IREN 10% NBIS 10% NVDA 9% ALAB 9% AXON 7% MELI 6% RDDT 5% RBRK 4% CRDO 4% <= 3% : CASH, WYFI, CRWV, PGY, HIVE

NVDA just told you the depreciation debate is irrelevant and nobody’s repricing. Burry closed his fund after shorting NVDA, claiming companies overstate GPU useful life at 2-3 years. The market debates whether depreciation should be 3, 5, or 7 years. AWS just cut AI hardware depreciation from 6 years back to 5. Then NVDA drops this in their earnings transcript: A100 GPUs shipped in May 2020 are still running at full utilization in November 2025, powered by vastly improved software. That statement just invalidated the entire depreciation debate. Here’s what people are getting wrong. They’re modeling GPU economics like traditional data center hardware with fixed depreciation curves. CoreWeave uses 6-year depreciation cycles. Microsoft and Alphabet extended server equipment to 6 years. Everyone’s arguing about the right number. But NVDA just revealed the actual dynamic. The value isn’t depreciating on a fixed schedule. Software improvements are extending hardware utility faster than the hardware ages. CUDA optimizations, framework updates, and model efficiency gains mean a 2020 chip running 2025 software delivers more economic value than a 2020 chip running 2020 software. Think about what “full utilization” means for data center economics. These aren’t spare chips sitting idle. They’re generating revenue at capacity 5.5 years after purchase. The software moat keeps expanding, which keeps old hardware economically viable. This completely inverts the depreciation model everyone’s fighting about. The question isn’t “when does the hardware become obsolete?” The question is “how fast can software improvements extend hardware utility?” A100 resale prices saw appreciation in early 2024 during H100 supply constraints, proving the market values backward compatibility and software leverage over raw specs. The competitive dynamic here is brutal. NVDA controls the entire software stack. Every CUDA improvement, every framework optimization, every model efficiency gain extends the life of every GPU they’ve ever sold. Competitors need to match not just the current generation, but the accumulated value of 15 years of software development. Burry bet on hardware obsolescence. NVDA just showed him software determines economic life, not silicon generations.

@FintechBobby Perhaps, could also just be momentum traders selling who were hoping for some crazy price action after the earnings report

A little bit funny to see $IREN, one of my biggest holdings, DOWN today after reporting an absolute blockbuster earnings yesterday. Says a lot about the state of the market right now, and not very much at all about Iren, who will be more than 10x'ing their revenue next year.

To take this a step further, $IREN is now down 9% and trading for LESS than it was *before* the microsoft deal! Talk about irrational markets... I have a huge Iren position already and I'm considering adding here, or converting some shares to options.

I'm very aware of the stock price run up, and because this is Twitter, people will say "All that was already priced in". But actually... all that was certainly not priced in. Who could have known that they're guiding for $3.4 billion of revenue next year?

Portfolio +56% YTD Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +312% Holdings: APP 24% IREN 19% NBIS 12% NVDA 8% AXON 7% ALAB 7% MELI 6% RDDT 4% <= 3% : WYFI, CRWV, PGY, CRDO, HIVE, RBRK

$IREN signing a $9.7b cloud contract with $MSFT is a thesis-defining moment for shareholders For the last couple of years, doubters have argued that $IREN is just another $BTC miner or, in recent months, that they can’t compete with the likes of $NBIS or $CRWV because they lack "software orchestration". Well, it turns out that all of these doubts were severely mis-guided. Investors who did extensive research and analysis of the AI sector understood that it was always just a question of time — not merely because $IREN "has the power", but because they have world-class engineers and a one-of-a-kind CTO in Denis Skrinnikoff. Combine that with excellent leadership at the top & this was a forgone conclusion. Now keep in mind, this multibillion $ deal — which, on the surface, appears to have a very strong ROIC profile — barely encompasses 300 MW (gross) of $IREN's ~3 GW power portfolio. There will be many more deals, whether in hyperscale cloud contracts or in the form of high-yielding “premium” colocation partnerships. This is truly just the beginning... Congrats @danroberts0101 & Team. Couldn’t be prouder as a shareholder today! 👏🎉

Love when my tweets age well! $IREN 🚀 🚀

@hksfho Yes a small trim there

@xponentialdave did you trim reddit?

Portfolio +61% YTD Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +314% APP 23% IREN 15% NBIS 14% AXON 8% ALAB 8% NVDA 8% MELI 5% RDDT 4% RBRK 4% 3% or less: WYFI, HIMS, CRWV, PGY, CRDO, HIVE

@FinallyFoolin Very similar story for me in both $NVDA and $IREN.

$NVDA & $IREN Back in June 2023, $NVDA had gone from about $150 to start the year to $427 or so (pre-split, these would be 15 & 42 in today's terms). It had been up almost 3x in 2 months. Many were afraid to invest in it due to having "missed" the run-up. I started investing at this point Those shares are now up something like 350%. This ended up being a VERY smart decision in hindsight. Because of this, I do my best to fight feelings of "missing" a stock's run-up. Fast-forward to today. In September, $IREN was up 267% YTD. I saw many friends talking about it and looked deeper and opened a position. Paid $37 a share for those. Looking back, the "I missed" this stock sentiment would have been wrong again. I learned this lesson from the great Saul. Thanks Saul.

I should give @GIMastery a finder’s fee for his work on $IREN. Great job on that one!

Adding in February at the beginning of the Applovin short report nonsense ended up being a great decision. Similar theme today - probably a buying opportunity but at the end of the day no one really knows until the probe is complete Long $APP

I think people forget how bad 2020/2021 was lol $OKLO needs to 3-5x FROM HERE for it to be like 2021 2021 had 0 revenue companies like: $LCID - $90B $RVIN - $100B+ valuation during IPO(larger than ford at the time) $NKLA - $30B ending up being a scam $FSR (Fisker) - billions with 0 products And that’s just a few names off the top of my head. Plenty of other. THEN you had everyone and I mean everyone talking about stocks. “What should I buy” “How do I get rich” Every friend I had was now an “options pro”. THEN you had NFTs, selling for millions of dollars. THEN you had $100Bs in Covid stimulus checks. THEN you had FFR at near 0%. This is NOT 2021. I’m not saying it’s not a local top but any comparison to 20/21’ is based on their own FOMO IMO.

@StockMarketNerd Don’t be shy Brad! Name them

Somewhat uncomfortable level of hyper-speculative stocks with unproven business models & no profits going parabolic recently. I guess if these firms can’t sell any useful goods or services they can just keep selling retail more stock.

Solid take got me from curiosity to opening a tiny starter position

@curious_pupil Until the story changes. Realistically when revenue growth slows down

@xponentialdave Wow huge concentration in APP. What are your thoughts on how long you plan to hold?

Portfolio +59% YTD Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +311% APP 26% AXON 9% ALAB 9% NVDA 7% RDDT 6% MELI 6% IREN 6% HIMS 5% ZS 5% RBRK 4% NBIS 4% IOT 4% CRDO 3% 3% or less: TSLA, HNGE, DAVE, CRWV

Lot of retail investors (myself included) posting their portfolios and high fives all around. Is it a local top? Could be. But is it actionable? For me.. no. Macro is a highly uncertain endeavor. Even the smartest people typically get it v wrong. So I'm staying the course.