Capital Economics EMs

Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira - opinion column from @peach_liam of @CapEconEmerging ft.com/content/3d85c9…

I wrote this in October but credit goes to Capital Economics and Neil Shearing. #psychic marketwatch.com/amp/story/solv…

We're hiring! Over the past month we've published on China's power cuts, dev debt, the 10y property outlook, decoupling, port backlogs, mon pol... If you're an economist and interested in these issues, we'd like to hear from you. (Role is in Singapore) capitaleconomics.com/careers/

In @InquirerBiz’s poll, only Capital Economics’ @ghleather77’s September inflation forecast (an outlier because the majority projected 5-5.2%) was correct.

[Video] We discuss the wider implications of #China’s central bank #digitalcurrency with Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Free to view: on.ft.com/3xq4Pr2 #CBDCs @CapEconomics

We're on Substack! Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is sharing his weekly note via a new Substack newsletter, starting with this week’s take on the problems associated with the highly polarised global debate about inflation’s return. capitaleconomics.substack.com

Analysts from Capital Economics, a consultancy, reckon that China's statistics have looked particularly fishy since 2012 econ.trib.al/uDl6VX7

For China’s export sector, the rise in demand for facemasks, webcams and the like in response to the pandemic has almost entirely offset the collapse in global demand for everything else. Extraordinary (though it probably won't last).

The Capital Economics team won 5 of the 12 available awards in Asia, including Singapore, Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia and New Zealand

CE #Commodities team scoop 9 awards for accuracy of 2019 price forecasts. bit.ly/2T4VoLw

The Capital Economics Asia team won 5 of the 12 Forecast Accuracy awards from Consensus Economics last week. Some fantastic work over the past year.

among other things, demonetisation looks more painful in the data now. More (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…

India's stats office just made some really quite large revisions to the last three years' GDP

Two distinct trends in China this past week: Infection numbers are improving. Economic numbers are not. Passenger traffic is down 84% y/y, car sales 92%, cinema tickets 99% property sales 83%. Plenty of data though. Charts here: capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-e…

We've just published our latest outlook. After abrupt slowdowns in 2019, growth in many EMs will pick up this year. But recoveries will be weaker than many are anticipating. And we think that growth in China will slow as property construction cools. capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…

3 Key Takeaways from our 2050 World #GDP Rankings: 1) China fails to overtake the US as the world's largest economy. 2) Indonesia, India & Philippines leap up the rankings. 3) Italy drops out of the top 10. #worldin2050 See our Long Term Global Outlook: bit.ly/2T7Zjrw

Countries in Africa and Emerging Asia are set to be worst, and most quickly, affected by climate change. This adds to other structural headwinds that many EMs face in the coming decades. Read more in our Global Economics Focus here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/g…

The November #PMIs point to diverging prospects for EM manufacturers. Conditions appear to be improving in Emerging Asia but deteriorating in Emerging Europe. #EMchartoftheday See more here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key rate at 13.50% today, preferring instead to use unconventional measures to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these policies will fail, prompting a rate cut in late 2020. See more here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/a…

Data from @Hacienda_Arg show that Argentina's government owe over $60bn next year. We expect haircuts on some local-law debt and international bonds. Average recovery values are likely to be around 50%. #EMchartoftheday See more here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/l…