Liam Peach retweetledi
RT @EuromoneyConf: @Peach_Liam of @CapEconEmerging speaking on #inflation & #green #transition at @EuroMoney #CEE #Forum 2024 in #Vienna #Austria #emCEEForum
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Liam Peach
44 posts
Liam Peach
@peach_liam
Senior EM economist covering Russia, Turkey and Eastern Europe @CapEconEmerging 🇬🇧
London, England Katılım Eylül 2017
357 Takip Edilen123 Takipçiler
Gulf financing is important, but not a route to permanent macro stability while monetary policy remains so loose. Lira depreciation to 30/$ is looking increasingly plausible in the coming months. It could get there more quickly if the policy shift continues to underwhelm. 4/
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But the room for error is now incredibly small. The impression I’m building is that Erdogan still has the CBRT in a straight jacket. Even if rates are raised to 30%, there are serious doubts about whether rates will be kept high for long enough to address Turkey's imbalances. 3/
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Big decision by the CBRT today. Given the scale of the inflation problem, a 500bp hike to 20% is probably necessary, but I fear another underwhelming hike. The slow and steady tightening is pushing the limits on what policymakers can get away with. 1/
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Striking chart in Poland on private sector credit to GDP in the NBP's latest fin stability report. This is one of the largest credit contractions in EMs atm. Likely due to higher int rates, low housing demand, tighter credit availability and legal risks around FX loan settlement.
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My column in the FT today on the policy adjustment that Turkey's economy now needs to make. This starts with a large #lira depreciation. Today's 6% fall vs $ is a positive step and further weakness lies in store. The next step needs to involve a sharp rise in interest rates.
Financial Times@FT
Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira on.ft.com/3WVVPHq | opinion
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@bneeditor Russia gas exports likely to be 0.8% of GDP lower this year with current TTF gas prices than if prices had stayed at Sep/Oct level. Will bring CA surplus down to a dangerously low level of 2% GDP by year-end - point at which external rebalancing becomes necessary
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@peach_liam what you guys forecast for current account surplus this year?
IEA forecast 30bcm gas deficit this yr. If weather stays warm & Eu end heat season with c70% full is that enuf to avoid new/worse energy crisis this summer? Rus deliver will be down 50bcm this yr for sure
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ive been drilling into the gas storage thing.
EU tanks were 83% full on jan 1 vs 88% on 1/1/20 - by far highest in last 5yrs
after one week its 83% now vs 85.8% then - 2.8pp difference
seems v likely that 2023 will overtake 2020 to have highest storage in years by next week
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Liam Peach retweetledi
@peach_liam from @CapEconEmerging speaking about Energy security: the costs of keeping the lights on at the #emCEEForum
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@jakluge I hold a similar view that these macro risks are not being fully appreciated atm. I don’t think Russia needs to get a CA deficit for this to materialise, a surplus of <2% of GDP in 2024/25 will start to bite and necessitate a rebalancing
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The big #sanctions strategy shift: In the first months of the Russian invasion, sanctions were mainly targeted at making it hard for Russia to import. This was achieved by
- Western export controls
- side-effects of financial sanctions
- international companies leaving Russia. 1/
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Liam Peach retweetledi
So, why is #Russia slashing interest rates when inflation is running at 17% and in an environment where many other global central banks are raising rates?
@peach_liam has all the answers: marketplace.org/shows/marketpl…
Victoria Craig@VictoriaCraig
#Russia's central bank slashes interest rates by 1.5pp to 9.5% -- a more aggressive cut than expected, noting "the external environment for the Russian economy remains challenging & significantly constrains economic activity." No *direct* reference to Russia's Ukraine invasion.
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Liam Peach retweetledi
Where are the Central Bank of Russia reserves kept? Well, a decent chunk are held as deposits with central banks, the BIS, or the IMF. Indeed, the deposit share of reserves increased sharply in 2018 when they were forced to sell US Treasuries...
@M_C_Klein
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Liam Peach retweetledi
Polski sektor przemysłowy ma za sobą okres spektakularnego rozwoju. Przed sobą zresztą też - twierdzi @peach_liam z @CapEconEurope w bardzo dobrej analizie tego fenomenu. Produkcja w PL jest powyżej poziomu, na którym byłaby, gdyby pozostała na przedpandemicznej ścieżce wzrostu.
Polski
Liam Peach retweetledi
Roses are red
Violets are blue
We’ll keep financing conditions favourable
‘Til the crisis is through
#ECBmyvalentine #ValentinesDay
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Liam Peach retweetledi
"Obecny poziom stóp procentowych jest właściwy i najlepiej odpowiada obecnej sytuacji. Jednak w pierwszym kwartale następnego roku możliwe jest dalsze obniżenie stóp. Prowadzimy w NBP odpowiednie analizy możliwych okoliczności i potencjalnych skutków takiego obniżenia”.
Polski
Liam Peach retweetledi
Devastating news from Minsk: the Belarusian foreign ministry has stripped dozens of locals journalists working for foreign media of their press accreditation, affecting the entire bureaus of Reuters, AP, AFP, Deutsche Welle. 1/2
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Liam Peach retweetledi
Liam Peach retweetledi
Liam Peach retweetledi
“The name of the company, Eastman Kodak Co. It is a cutting edge high-tech generic drug producer out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of COVID vaccines that have both huge military and civilian applications now.”
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