CapitalEdge

Periodical reminder that the S&P requires 'reasons' to sell off, and not reasons to rally. Also, another reminder that there is very little benefit in getting married to any particular bias, but were you to get married to one, in the long run history favours a bullish one. There will be fluctuations and sell offs along the way, but for better long-term mental health you'd probably want to be the person on the right far more often than the person on the left. Just saying. Have fun.

Preparation for the week ahead 👇

Regular or Premium?

💦 The Morning Blast Podcast Friday's Morning Blast is up. Ryan + @MrMBrown. No TA today. · Middle East: Hormuz on the table. War Powers paused. Ceasefire holding, barely. · Yen: MoF intervened twice. Speed bump, not a trend change. · BoE: Pill alone for a hike. Three scenarios, fifteen outcomes, zero central forecast. · ECB: Lagarde's six weeks. Michael calls it mistake number three. Spaces: x.com/i/spaces/1yxBe… Spotify: t.co/1uWPuiDTyN Subscribe wherever you listen.

**bites down on fist**

Without billionaires we’d all be much poorer.

Nails it.

@MrMBrown 100%, tough to decide which is worse though, the forecasts or Pill's vote

@Capital_Edge_ was just making that very point! they're not worth the paper that they're written on, and actually just end up with policymakers having to tie themselves in knots at the presser

The BoE have issued so many scenarios & permutations that they provide almost no signal whatsoever…plus, knowing their luck, they’ll still get the eventual outcome wrong anyway 😂

@LostitNft 100% it's such a useless exercise as it all depends on oil and the conflict like you mentioned.

@Capital_Edge_ This is a panic saving exercise. It's going to be catastrophic. The huge margin of error being Trump. I'd like some if what the bank is smoking.

So basically, inflation could be lower or higher this year, and next, and the year after that. Is there even a point of providing forecasts when there is such a huge margin for error.

@MrMBrown Bailey has a song in mind right now... And I swear you're just like a Pill 'Stead of makin' me better You keep makin' me ill

Huw Pill...what an utter moron...

Now over to Lagarde to make sense of it all...

Heading into the ECB, markets price a first hike by June and 3 hikes total by year-end. At the same time, the Citi Economic Surprice Index continues to drift lower as data continues to dissapoint market expectations.

If you're an active trader you have to read this...and then read it again.

FX Vol latest

Arno (@Capital_Edge_) on Brent Crude positioning

Brent positioning is flashing bearish. But the geopolitical backdrop couldn't be more bullish. So which one is right? The answer depends on what positioning is actually measuring right now, and it's not what most people think. Want to know more about the market? Drop your question in the comments. #CrudeOil #OilMarkets #Commodities #TradingPsychology #MarketPositioning #WTI #Brent #ICE #NYMEX #MacroTrading #EnergyMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #TradingMindset #AskArno

Quick comparison on rate expectations for the FOMC following yesterday's decision. Notable hawkish shift across the curve, and rate markets pricing reflects what we know right now, but the path is HIGHLY dependent on the path for oil prices and inflation.

$US100 new highs after solid earnings from $GOOGL and $AMZN Reminder that the weighting in names like $GOOGL (>10% of $NAS100) and $AMZN (>6% of $NDAQ) , meaning they matter more on good earnings than $META, which is closer to 4% in weighting.