MichaelIngle

3.4K posts

MichaelIngle

MichaelIngle

@ChinaNotes

Retired lawyer/student of Chinese. At https://t.co/UyqwZoZH7B I comment on articles posted on 爱思想, also writing about Hu Feng on https://t.co/9o91Dv0Fd6

London, England شامل ہوئے Ekim 2011
952 فالونگ217 فالوورز
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Zack Polanski
Zack Polanski@ZackPolanski·
For whoever needs to hear this I'm the only Jewish person to lead a political party - third largest in the country. The Daily Mail have been & always will be my enemy - they historically supported fascists & continue to do so. I'll take no lectures from them on Antisemitism.
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@APHClarkson Is the ultimate vision for Iran to become a troglodyte civilisation?
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
The Americans have screwed a lot up and will come out of this badly, but a lot of commentary has lost sight of who controls the skies over Iran and how that will affect Iran's future.
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Presumably if the Iranians asks for tolls to use the Strait of Hormuz then the Israelis get to charge tolls to anyone who wants to use Iranian airspace
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@phl43 How did the Vietnamese manage? It took a while, but look where they are now.
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Philippe Lemoine
It's not just that US sanctions will deter Chinese companies from getting involved in Iran. People are also talking as if China was some kind of humanitarian operation, which is going to give stuff to Iran for free. But the Iranians will have to pay for it and, after this war, their economy will be largely destroyed and therefore it will be more difficult for them to generate the exports they will need to pay for Chinese imports.
Matthew Petti@matthew_petti

Some people who are bullish on Iran seem confident that they will be able to rebuild with Chinese capital, but I don’t think that’s a safe bet at all, especially not without U.S. sanctions relief.

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Bruno Maçães
Bruno Maçães@MacaesBruno·
China is now being criticised for not organising an “axis of autocracies”
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@ahauslohner @JavierBlas @SecRubio That means the rest of the world will have an interest in creating a new security structure in the Middle East that respects the reasonable interests of all countries in the area, including Iran, Israel and the Gulf States.
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Abigail Hauslohner
Abigail Hauslohner@ahauslohner·
US @SecRubio told G7 the US is NOT expecting the Strait to re-open 2 traffic as usual by end of war. "After this thing ends...one of the immediate challenges we’re going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz” 1/
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@HanShawnity I expect that in Iran, like everywhere, most people mainly want to get through their day, go to work and meet up with friends and family. Most comply with the rules whatever they are, and are not very interested in politics.
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Han Shawnity 🇺🇸
Han Shawnity 🇺🇸@HanShawnity·
I'm trying to understand something about the Iranian people. Just a few months ago you were slaughtered by the thousands for protesting and demanding your freedom. You begged for help. Help came. The US and Israel have been bombing Iranian regime targets mercilessly for weeks now. Why aren't you rising up? You won't get this opportunity again. It's now or never. I'm not here to judge. I understand the regime consists of savages who wouldn't hesitate to murder thousands more. But they're killing you anyway, and if you really want your freedom like you say you do, now's the time. Your future is up to you. You can't expect other people to do it for you.
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Kathleen Tyson
Kathleen Tyson@Kathleen_Tyson_·
@LJKawa Bookmarked so I can taunt Mr Slok for the rest of the year.
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Luke Kawa
Luke Kawa@LJKawa·
The view from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok: “Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics.”
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@tanvi_ratna I have read the article, but it does seem odd that Parpanchi says nothing about the Strait of Hormuz. He just says that the Iranian regime ‘threatens shipping’. Where will we be if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for months on end while Trump pursues his ‘pressure’ strategy.
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Tanvi Ratna
Tanvi Ratna@tanvi_ratna·
Folks now echoing my PoV that Trump used the Iran war as the final lever to force alignment across different theaters, incl the Middle East. It is not a random war with miscalculations. Pressure has been created precisely to force negotiations. If that fails, more pressure is incoming.
Mehdi Parpanchi@Parpanchi

The Iran war is not drift. It follows a coercive sequence: terms, pressure, pause, then renewed pressure. After failed diplomacy and rising nuclear risk, Washington saw force as the remaining option. Whatever its costs, the war is reshaping Iran and the regional balance. Read more: parpanchi.substack.com/p/the-coercive…

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Harry Scoffin
Harry Scoffin@HarryScoffin·
I’m standing up to a multibillion-pound industry extorting people in their own homes. There’s a reason the Housing Minister blocked me. And why a sea of lobbyists try to poison the minds of politicians, journalists, and others against me and @FreeLeasehlders. 6 April.
Free Leaseholders@FreeLeasehlders

Blocked by the Housing Minister and kept out of cosy events in Parliament, we’re taking our message direct to the people. Spoke with Dan Knott on why leaseholders cannot afford the Government’s disastrous two-tier approach... and why the rebellion has only just begun. 6 April.

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duncan
duncan@mongrelcelt·
Leasehold has crashed the LDN flats market. Labours laughable policy of only new build Commonholds will not un-crash it, bc almost all LDN flats are secondhand. No one wants LH; theres no price discovery for it Meanwhile LH continues to divert disposable income away from economy
Louisa Metcalfe@LouisaMetcalfe_

Need to end leasehold first. Leasehold flats are 36% of London stock, LDN has 24% of UK market (£2.64tn), > the combined market cap of all FTSE 100 companies. Many millennials are in negative equity, will exasperate generational divides & damage economy & social mobility further

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David Henig 🇺🇦
David Henig 🇺🇦@DavidHenigUK·
Serious analysts finally suspending their clever analyses in the realisation that a spectacularly dumb US administration has blundered into Iran with absolutely no idea as to what it is doing or why, at huge cost to themselves and the world. theguardian.com/world/2026/mar…
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@orwellvalley Poor communication between flat management companies and leaseholders is a serious problem. Communication breaks down entirely in the end because they treat us as ‘punters’ instead as customers.
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orwellvalley
orwellvalley@orwellvalley·
Today, by pure chance, I met a housing association representative in the car park. No emails. No scripted replies. No “we understand your concerns.” Just a person. I showed him photos - not of defects or spreadsheets - but of how I’m actually living. What prolonged stress does. What it looks like when your home stops feeling like your own. The toll of over 5 years spent in fight or flight, trying to navigate a system that takes a considerable mental and physical toll. And I broke down. Not planned. Not performative. Just what happens when someone finally sees it. What it feels like to live under the weight of the legal system - camping out in what’s supposed to be your own home. Mortgage paid off years ago, but still struggling to keep up with service charges and a Section 20 major works bill. To his credit, he didn’t deflect. He didn’t hide behind process. For the first time in all of this, someone on that side acknowledged the lived reality... not just the liability. He replied honestly. Nothing’s fixed. The numbers haven’t changed. The pressure is still there. But being seen - even briefly - matters more than the system realises. Because behind every “case”, every “leaseholder”, every screen, every line item… there’s a person trying to hold it together in a place they once called home.
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Philip Pilkington
Philip Pilkington@philippilk·
The current moment is very similar to the initial phase of the pandemic. People who like numbers know that a catastrophe is about to strike but everything seems normal. When it hits - which is very soon - all our lives will change. 🛢️
Eric Nuttall@ericnuttall

I've so far avoided dramatics because I would be accused of bias. To be clear: this is the worst energy crisis of our lifetimes, well beyond what any sober mind could have envisioned, with no end in sight. The level of complacency to me is astounding.

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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@shashj This is true. I recall going to bed as an 11 year old during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, worried that we might be incinerated before the morning (we lived close to a US air force base). Somehow we got through it, but there was a real danger then, and there still is.
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Shashank Joshi
Shashank Joshi@shashj·
An evasive word salad from the defence secretary. Why not just level with people & say: Iran is working on satellite launch vehicles that might eventually give it the ability to strike mainland UK, we have serious gaps in ballistic missile defence, but NATO helps fill those gaps.
Sophy Ridge@SophyRidgeSky

Worth reading my exchange with Defence Secretary John Healey about whether Iran has the capability to strike London SR: Israel has said Iran has missiles that could strike London. Is that true? JH: We have no assessment of Iranian plans to strike London. We have a defence of Britain that isn't just about what we have for ourselves in and around Britain. Our defence of Britain is part of the layers of defence of NATO nations... SR: I don't understand what that means, that you 'don't have an assessment'. Does that mean you don't have an assessment at all so we don't know? Or does that mean that your assessments don't suggest that? JH: I understand the concerns that British people will have, but we have the resources and we have the alliances in place to be able to protect Britain. And we do that not just because we've got first class forces, but we have an alliance with 31 other NATO nations, and it's together that we defend NATO and British airspace, NATO and British homeland. SR: Do we know if Iran has the capability to strike London? JH: Look, what I'm saying, and trying to reassure people, is that we've got no assessment that Iran has any plans to attack, but we have the resources, we have the alliance in place to be able to defend Britain and we do that with allies, and we do that with NATO. And as far as Iran goes, they're demonstrating a capacity to hit across the Middle East. We see the same tactics and technologies that we see employed by Russia in Ukraine and this is the hidden hand of Putin in both conflicts. And I'm releasing today our latest defence intelligence assessment, which says that Russia was almost certainly providing training, sharing intelligence with Iran ahead of this conflict, including on types of drones, including on electronic warfare.

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Neil Stone
Neil Stone@DrNeilStone·
Jonas Salk Polio vaccine hero
Neil Stone tweet media
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MichaelIngle
MichaelIngle@ChinaNotes·
@MattLismore @FreeLeasehlders Given the small number of new builds in the UK each year, it will be decades before a significant proportion of flats are common hold. Leasehold will remain a problem for a very long time if it is not abolished for existing properties.
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Matt Lismore
Matt Lismore@MattLismore·
I don’t think people realise that creating a 2 tier flats market with leasehold (existing) and commonhold (new) could crush leasehold property values further. That would place leading UK banks in the position of holding huge volumes of mortgages where the borrower is in negative equity. This wouldn’t be an issue if defaults stay low, but should a significant number of leaseholders start defaulting, banks could be in considerable bother, causing significant harm to the UK economy. Further, if leasehold flat values fall after commonhold comes in, even more properties will fall into the service charge > 1% of value bracket, making them largely unmortgageable. @mtpennycook it is vital that we don’t create a 2 tier market in flats - it has the capacity to have significant knock on consequences.
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