Pestalozzi Pete

@2024dion Those areas are already growing quite rapidly. As Sun Belt slows, the major cities directly north of Piedmont, like Cincinnati, St. Louis, Louisville, Richmond, and Kansas City are next in the boom queue.

Sorry to my friends in the Great Lakes but these circles are where the ‘climate refugees’ from FL TX AZ are going to move, not inner city Detroit and Milwaukee

@illiquid__ @2024dion That’s why you’re a shit investor.

@CobTop52 @2024dion If I could short one city, it’d be St. Louis

Portland, Denver, Austin, and Nashville are midsized metros that have been labeled The Next Big Thing at various times over the past couple decades. Which city is next?

@AlanFick2 @2024dion City finances are in great shape, consistent budget surpluses, strong capital and reserve funds, and still hundreds of millions of dollars in ARPA and Rams money about to be spent.

@AlanFick2 @2024dion The Greater St. Louis region has one of largest YoY home value increases in the country, STL city proper one of the few principal cities of major metros still gaining in home values YoY. Stable economy with a bunch of major corporate HQs, Boeing Defense moving HQ back from DC.

@KCPaulHens @RGreggKeller KC has 6 Fortune 1000 companies, STL has 14, one of which just moved here a few years ago. That also doesn’t include Global 100 Bunge which moved here like 5 years ago, but technically has a Swiss domicile.

@RGreggKeller I bet all 10 of those are Kansas City. Our state only focuses on St. Louis and Kansas is kicking our ass on HQ retention. Can we secede our city to Kansas now? We’re getting forgotten over here!

Estimated inbound corporate HQ moves since 2015* Texas/Florida/Tennessee: 560. Missouri: 0-10. *Sources: CBRE, Visualcapitalist, Dallas FED, Site Selection. #moleg #mogov

@jasonriverastl Largest 1,000 companies*

@jasonriverastl St. Louis also gained a Global 100 company in that time, Bunge. Boeing Defense just announced it’s moving the HQ back. St. Louis is home to 18 of the nation’s largest companies (public + private), more than Nashville and Austin combined.

St. Louis had 9 Fortune 500 companies in 2015. Now? Just 7. Meanwhile, corporations keep flocking to Austin, Nashville & Miami. STL has a $210B metro economy, pretty low cost of living, central location & top-tier universities. Why aren’t any corporations calling it home?

@bobrickert @kmoxnews STL has a 50 mile light rail system. KC would kill to have anything remotely close to MetroLink.

@kmoxnews Compare to the trolley system in Kansas City — what a difference. In KC, clean, secure,free travel which runs on time. I just spent 4 days in KC and what a delight that was!

The Loop Trolley is back on the track starting today. Would you ride it?

@BeAccountable4u Downtown+Downtown West population by decade 2000: 3,010 2010: 7,661 2020: 10,557

Somebody needs a tax write off in St Louis. Nobody is going to move into condos in downtown St Louis until politicians are changed and streets are made safe fox2now.com/news/missouri/…

@aaron_renn Indianapolis metro area lost 7,700 jobs year over year, down 0.7% from last January, according to BLS. Where will all these babies work in the future?! Maybe they’ll move to St. Louis. An actual city with actual urban amenities, which gained 2,400 jobs YoY.

"Indianapolis is about 700 babies behind St. Louis. Nashville is about 800 babies behind. All of these smaller regions are having lots of babies, and young people are moving there. Your future depends on the number of children born."

@Beganovic2026 Why did they update the number of 2025 homicides in downtown/downtown west from 1 to 2? I’m still seeing just the 1 in the city crime data.

I present you this data monthly, good to see PD catch up Part 2 of the Post DispatchEditorial: Downtown St. Louis is safer than you think. No, really. stltoday.com/opinion/editor…

@DavidRCampbell6 @2024dion The two towers closest to the river and the podium are being demolished.

@CobTop52 @2024dion They are planning to demolish the Renaissance Center?

Spent some time walking around downtown Detroit this afternoon. Most of the 2010s projects that were ongoing when I left in 2022 are complete (Hudson’s Site, Book Tower, a few smaller buildings) but it doesn’t seem that there’s much that’s new, which is a crazy contrast to my first time here in 2019 whew every block seemed to have something going on. The UM building and the convention center hotel are the only new construction going up, it seems, and all the buildings that were vacant when I left are still vacant. My old office tower, the Michigan Building, looks like it might be totally empty now too. Retail vacancies are about the same, maybe slightly down at best. The qline hasn’t upgraded its ROW and the cars are already aging fast. It’s a bit of whiplash for me after spending last week in Austin where the 2020s have had explosive physical growth downtown & everything was both new and packed. I don’t know if the pandemic just crushed office occupancy and made downtown less desirable to live in, or if the low hanging fruit has been plucked and now Gilbert has pulled back, or what, but the vibrancy and promise of the 2010s seems to have slacked off.

@FullLaneFemme @OneRailUSA Chicago has 110 mph service to both St. Louis and Detroit currently. Similar distances. Metro Detroit is almost double the size of Greater St. Louis, yet the Chicago-St. Louis service has 35% higher ridership.

@OneRailUSA Nooooooo. Hardly anyone is clamoring for this. Chicago to Toronto Chicago to Detroit Chicago to Kansas City All more attractive than St. Louis

The Chicago to St. Louis corridor could someday become the Midwestern backbone of a national high-speed rail network buff.ly/a8HfprO

@2024dion Diversified economy? It’s still way too dependent on the auto industry. It has the second slowest GDP growth among all states over the last 30 years. Sandwiched right between Louisiana and West Virginia.

Why is Michigan such an unattractive place to move? It's one of the most beautiful states, has one massive metro area and 2-3 booming smaller metros, a diversified economy, extremely affordable housing, a top tier flagship university, etc

@brad5320 @aaron_renn “Real GDP” adjusts for inflation. It’s a pretty standard metric to use. Your chart was not real GDP.

@CobTop52 @aaron_renn How the is that not real GDP? Quit moving the goalposts bro.

St Louis is a river city like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Louisville. All of these cities are similar dynamics and weird underperformance on conventional growth metrics relative to their urban assets. A possible culprit: very parochial and insular cultures.

@brad5320 @aaron_renn For one year of estimates. Since 2020, still net negative domestic migration. And it’s not even birth rates, it’s that Pittsburgh is extremely old and everyone is dying. Pittsburgh metro had more deaths than STL metro since 2020, and STL metro has 400,000 more people.

@CobTop52 @aaron_renn Population loss in this area is due to elderly people passing on and the lower birth rates that are affecting population growth everywhere else. Unlike St Louis, Pittsburgh actually has positive domestic migration. x.com/i/status/20372…

@brad5320 @aaron_renn Try using real GDP, and put some comparisons in there. 2019-2024 Real GDP Growth Allegheny: 4.2% STL City: 7.2% STL County: 13.1%

@CobTop52 @aaron_renn This is not what a stagnating GDP looks like either lol.

@brad5320 @aaron_renn Allegheny is stagnating economically and estimated to be declining as well. Lol

@CobTop52 @aaron_renn You truly have no idea what you're talking about with Pittsburgh because if you did you would know this phenomenon has been happening for 25 years now with the city and Allegheny County going one way as places like Fayette and Westmoreland Counties continue to go the other way.