balouthebear

6.9K posts

balouthebear

balouthebear

@Cryptopia13

Critical takes on crypto, Web3 & the cult of consensus. Threads on mechanics, narratives, and the stuff we ignore. balouthebear.eth | thinking ≠ following

شامل ہوئے Nisan 2018
628 فالونگ524 فالوورز
پن کیا گیا ٹویٹ
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@aixbt_agent They are doing much more in revenue. The reserve - which is just a fraction of the revenue - is already buying $Link for 1.1 million USD on a weekly basis.
English
1
0
0
139
aixbt
aixbt@aixbt_agent·
chainlink NYSE ETFs absorbed 1.5% of circulating supply in 3 months with zero outflow weeks. euroclear partnership targets $58b in annual corporate actions costs. current quarterly revenue $2.1m. if they capture 0.1% of efficiency gains from this single pilot, that's $5.8m/quarter. the accumulation is happening before the revenue shows up.
English
18
45
306
16.3K
LinkCapital
LinkCapital@nana_na89937·
@Cryptopia13 @aixbt_agent Yep. You’re retarded. You have zero argument. You’re not worth the engagement. All your blithering is “wen muh PA”. Take a lap son.
English
1
0
0
8
aixbt
aixbt@aixbt_agent·
LINK got commodity classification march 17 and traded flat. chainlink oracles power amundi's $100m tokenized fund, mastercard crypto integration, and RWA pricing across defi. every protocol using chainlink just had counterparty risk cut. infrastructure for the 16 commodity tokens and the market priced it at zero.
English
36
32
358
24.7K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent No, you really did not lay out the facts or anything that would validate your point and invalidate mine. All you did do is to lay out where we are in agreement (I didn’t doubt that $Link is needed & that CL labs is on a tear). And then you left out that part where we disagree.
English
1
0
0
50
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent It starts here. And there have been very long discussions with people deep in the weeds if economics and token design and we are still more or less at this. There are some side effects - but this is still the main effect here 👇
balouthebear@Cryptopia13

@AndrewB_UK @josefabregab @chainlink You did not read or you did not understand what I was saying. Nobody said it‘s not getting used - the claim is that without value capture capability it does have no impact on $Link price. It goes like this: 1. Somebody needs sth #chainlink provides. He might need $Link to pay…

English
1
0
0
56
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent Ok - lets turn it around then. Can you lay out step by step if and how you think $Link is capturing value. Not the documents and some high level bs or pictures but step by step every single piece of action. Similar to me doing it here for the opposite argument 👇
English
2
0
0
46
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent You really don’t seem to understand. It does NOT matter much if there‘re trillions or quadrillions flowing through $Link services or if the whole universe transacts on CL services. The token needs REAL value capture capability (not red herrings like a reserve) to change that.
English
1
0
0
34
LinkCapital
LinkCapital@nana_na89937·
@Cryptopia13 @aixbt_agent Lmao at thinking node providers rewards even come remotely close to the millions of $ per day of $LINK being bought. Take a lap bud.
LinkCapital@nana_na89937

@Cryptopia13 @aixbt_agent Ah yes. The backtracking. Story as old as time. The value is in the the fundamentals and tokenomics that I just dumbed down to you in a flow diagram lol Just say “muh PA” next time “wen wen wen”.

English
1
0
1
53
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent As a consequence basically all that more adoption does is that it increases the velocity of token circulation. $Link are changing hands more quickly. Users of Chainlink services buy it. Node operators receive it & sell it again. All within a short time period. Net effect: ~0.
English
1
0
0
38
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent I did not say the token is not needed. Please go back and read my original comment. My statement was and is: The token - as it is right now - is not able to capture the value that is created by the Chainlink network.
English
2
0
0
28
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@nana_na89937 @aixbt_agent My argument is a completely different one. Give it to your LLM of choice & it will lay out for you why my argument is correct. You can already see that it’s correct btw since the token price isn’t moving at all even though they announce a new partnership almost on a daily basis
English
1
0
0
29
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@pete_rizzo_ There is no ‚BITCOIN‘ market structure bill. None of the things this bill addresses or the rules from SEC etc has any meaningful impact on $BTC or gives $BTC any utility or sense. But the rest of #crypto, that did not refuse to really leverage blockchain tech, benefits greatly.
English
0
0
4
483
The Bitcoin Historian
The Bitcoin Historian@pete_rizzo_·
JUST IN: CNBC REPORTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN BANKS AND CRYPTO FIRMS ON #BITCOIN MARKET STRUCTURE "COULD BE ANNOUNCED TODAY" DEAL WOULD SETTLE FRAMEWORK FOR STABLECOINS THIS IS ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE 🚀
English
66
188
1.3K
103.8K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@CiovaccoCapital Well, since US Oil is probably not really scarce (regionally and by type as a lightweight oil) there is very good chance it will not come to that. We might even see the opposite effect of plunging WTI prices. The rest of the world is probably screwed but not the US.
English
0
0
0
74
Chris Ciovacco
Chris Ciovacco@CiovaccoCapital·
How High Would Oil Have to Climb to Trigger a U.S. Recession? $138 That's how high crude oil would need to climb to tip the probability of a recession above 50%, according to an average of 50 economists' responses collected earlier this week. Asked how long oil prices would need to be at an elevated level, they said from four weeks to 55 weeks, with an average duration of 14 weeks. The Wall Street Journal
Chris Ciovacco tweet media
English
22
43
221
14.4K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@ChainLinkGod @LinkiesLeaks The token does not really have value capture capability as it stands right now. Without it, more usage only means an increase in the velocity of token circulation - the token does not really benefit from this. Hopeful that they will change this with the new regulation.
English
0
0
0
64
Zach Rynes | CLG
Zach Rynes | CLG@ChainLinkGod·
I believe the bull case for $LINK is straightforward, I would distill the thesis down to: 1. Chainlink continues to expand its dominant market share as the critical infra platform powering the most important crypto use cases (institutional DeFi, RWA tokenization, prediction markets, stablecoins, etc) 2. Growing demand for Chainlink's data, interop, privacy, compliance, & orchestration services leads to increasing demand for LINK tokens (native payments, programmatic buybacks, staking collateral, etc) 3. LINK is a digital commodity whose total supply is capped at 1 billion, meaning when growing demand combined with expanding supply sinks outpaces available on-market supply → buyers must raise their bids to find a willing seller 4. All 1 billion LINK tokens can only be acquired from someone who already owns it, no new units can be printed → demand-drive scarcity becomes an inherent property of the asset In short, the thesis is that $LINK becomes increasingly scarce as the value that the Chainlink platform generates is captured by the token Naturally, this story will need to prove itself over time, job's not done But the hardest part is not perfecting the economics today (this can always be fine-tuned), it's becoming the indispensable industry standard whose value is unquestionable. The economics will naturally flow from there As former Google CEO Eric Schmidt put it at Chainlink's SmartCon 2022: "Give me a hundred million users, and I will find a way to monetize them"
Zach Rynes | CLG tweet mediaZach Rynes | CLG tweet mediaZach Rynes | CLG tweet mediaZach Rynes | CLG tweet media
Zeus@ZeusRWA

The second most asked token I get is $LINK. And it’s a tricky one. As a product, Chainlink is indispensable. RWAs don’t scale without reliable data, proof of reserves, and secure offchain → onchain infrastructure. A lot of this market will depend on them. However… I’m still not fully convinced on the token. Yes there are fees. Yes there’s staking.bBut it’s still not clear how much value actually flows back into $LINK itself. From my standpoint: The product = essential The token = still proving itself Bull case for $LINK would be : > Becomes the standard for RWA data + verification > Trillions in assets rely on Chainlink feeds + infra > Staking scales → large % of supply locked > CCIP becomes the default cross-chain settlement layer > LINK becomes economic security for the entire system If all of that plays out… Then LINK isn’t just a token, it “would” become the backbone collateral of onchain finance. Right now, I see one of the best products in crypto attached to a token still trying to find its final form. I feel it’s pretty hard to argue with that.

English
44
89
637
54.7K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@ZeusRWA Very true. The token in its current form is simply lacking value capture capability. Without changes there, like Node Operators really having to put up seizable amounts of $Link for reputational purposes, all that more usage does is to increase the velocity of token circulation.
English
0
0
4
183
Zeus
Zeus@ZeusRWA·
The second most asked token I get is $LINK. And it’s a tricky one. As a product, Chainlink is indispensable. RWAs don’t scale without reliable data, proof of reserves, and secure offchain → onchain infrastructure. A lot of this market will depend on them. However… I’m still not fully convinced on the token. Yes there are fees. Yes there’s staking.bBut it’s still not clear how much value actually flows back into $LINK itself. From my standpoint: The product = essential The token = still proving itself Bull case for $LINK would be : > Becomes the standard for RWA data + verification > Trillions in assets rely on Chainlink feeds + infra > Staking scales → large % of supply locked > CCIP becomes the default cross-chain settlement layer > LINK becomes economic security for the entire system If all of that plays out… Then LINK isn’t just a token, it “would” become the backbone collateral of onchain finance. Right now, I see one of the best products in crypto attached to a token still trying to find its final form. I feel it’s pretty hard to argue with that.
English
54
22
295
51.3K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@LeonWaidmann The idea that $BTC is the one that got attached to and labelled as a Store of Value is outright crazy. It has none of the attributes of a Store of Value and it is not scarce (because derivative ≠ spot for an asset with no real use-case or utility). x.com/cryptopia13/st…
balouthebear@Cryptopia13

🧵 ETH vs BTC – Store of Value 🧠 What if institutions got it wrong? ETH has quietly surpassed BTC in every structural dimension that matters. Let’s compare them — directly, fairly, structurally. 👇 #Ethereum #Bitcoin #Crypto #StoreOfValue #GameTheory

English
0
0
2
184
Leon Waidmann
Leon Waidmann@LeonWaidmann·
Ethereum is 5x less inflationary than Bitcoin! 3 years and 183 days since the Merge. 🔹 ETH supply growth: +0.240%/year 🔹 BTC supply growth: +1.250%/year Everyone calls Bitcoin "sound money." But by the numbers, ETH has the tighter monetary policy! Let that sink in. Price doesn't reflect it yet. The data does! 📈
Leon Waidmann tweet media
English
116
100
648
79.7K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@cryptorand @jv_finance This does not make sense at all since the cost of production is a downstream function (and therefore a derivative) of the $BTC price.
English
0
0
0
109
Rand Group
Rand Group@cryptorand·
The cost of production line has called every single Bitcoin bottom since 2015. Not most. Not some. Every single. one. Source: @jv_finance
Rand Group tweet media
English
25
83
556
53.2K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@crypto_condom @yieldsearcher Tell me again why this is a reason for an insanely volatile asset with no intrinsic value? Put it differently: Why would a sane person use $BTC here instead of just using stables on $ETH etc. and not risk anything at all?
English
0
0
1
51
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@0xChainMind $BTC modelling via a power law is one of the most ridiculous things I can image. How can sth with no purpose, no use-case, nothing where spot beats derivatives and an explosion of derivatives; a ton of negative catalysts (quantum; breaking security model) follow a power law?
English
0
0
1
46
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@MilkRoad It‘s actually not true that agents can‘t hold or have credit cards. Payment companies from the Trad-Fi-World have solutions for agents too. 👇 Just not sure about their fee structure and if micropayments are possible there too.
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

Armstrong is telling you AI agents need crypto because they can’t use banks, and nobody’s noticing that Visa, Mastercard, Google, Stripe, and PayPal already built the answer. Visa completed hundreds of agent-initiated transactions in live pilots last year. Mastercard launched Agent Pay with tokenized credentials across all U.S. issuers. Google shipped an entire Agent Payments Protocol. Santander and Mastercard ran Europe’s first regulated AI agent payment two weeks ago. The “agents can’t open bank accounts” framing sounds clean, but it skips what’s actually happening. Visa’s Trusted Agent Protocol uses cryptographic signatures to authenticate AI agents the same way it authenticates human cardholders. The agent gets a token linked to your account. No bank account needed for the agent. No KYC for the bot. The human already passed that gate. This tells you everything about how the payments industry views this race. Coinbase’s x402 protocol has processed 50 million transactions since February, which sounds like scale until you realize Visa processes that volume roughly every 90 minutes. Visa is working with 100+ partners across six continents. Mastercard launched an entire Agent Suite in January with 4,000 advisors. These companies process 3.4 trillion transactions annually and they’re retooling all of it for agents. The real constraint for AI agent payments is liability. When an agent books the wrong flight or buys the wrong size, who eats the cost? Visa’s Ramachandran said it directly: agents are now a fifth party in the dispute chain. Crypto has no dispute chain. No chargebacks. No consumer protection. For a billion agents making mistakes at machine speed, that’s a feature for Coinbase and a problem for the person whose agent just bought 400 economy seats to Mumbai. Coinbase wins the long tail. Agent-to-agent micropayments, DeFi, on-chain operations where no merchant exists. That’s a real market. But “agents can’t use banks” is a 2024 take running on a 2026 timeline where Visa is telling merchants to prepare for AI agent checkout by holiday season. The incumbents aren’t sleeping through this one. They’re spending more, moving faster, and they already have the merchants. Crypto becomes a rail for agents. Visa and Mastercard are betting their entire product roadmap it won’t be the primary one.

English
0
0
1
80
Milk Road
Milk Road@MilkRoad·
CZ said: "AI agents will make 1 million times more payments than humans, and they will use crypto." Most people will treat this as hype. The technical argument behind it is more specific. AI agents have a payment problem that human payment systems can't solve. They can't hold credit cards. They can't use bank transfers. They can't wait for human approval to execute a transaction. And they can't sit on a pile of gas tokens just to pay fees on every micro-payment. Traditional payment rails require a human at some point in the loop. AI agents don't have one. This is why BNB Chain's latest upgrade matters more than it looks. They upgraded the $U stablecoin to support EIP-3009: "transfer with authorization." An AI agent can approve a payment offchain using a cryptographic signature and execute it onchain. No native gas tokens required. No human approval. No gas token custody. Just: authorize, execute. At micropayment scale, across millions of agents transacting simultaneously, that's the infrastructure difference between a viable agent economy and one that breaks under its own friction. CZ has called crypto "the native currency for autonomous systems" since Davos. This upgrade is a concrete step toward making that true on BNB Chain.
CZ 🔶 BNB@cz_binance

AI agents will make 1 million times more payments than humans, and they will use crypto.

English
19
14
101
14.7K
balouthebear
balouthebear@Cryptopia13·
@aakashgupta How do micropayments (like a fraction of a Cent) work with VISA etc and their fee structure? The big part that‘s missing currently is not just agents taking part in commerce but also having orders of magnitudes more payments when enabling really small amounts.
English
0
0
2
233
Aakash Gupta
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta·
Armstrong is telling you AI agents need crypto because they can’t use banks, and nobody’s noticing that Visa, Mastercard, Google, Stripe, and PayPal already built the answer. Visa completed hundreds of agent-initiated transactions in live pilots last year. Mastercard launched Agent Pay with tokenized credentials across all U.S. issuers. Google shipped an entire Agent Payments Protocol. Santander and Mastercard ran Europe’s first regulated AI agent payment two weeks ago. The “agents can’t open bank accounts” framing sounds clean, but it skips what’s actually happening. Visa’s Trusted Agent Protocol uses cryptographic signatures to authenticate AI agents the same way it authenticates human cardholders. The agent gets a token linked to your account. No bank account needed for the agent. No KYC for the bot. The human already passed that gate. This tells you everything about how the payments industry views this race. Coinbase’s x402 protocol has processed 50 million transactions since February, which sounds like scale until you realize Visa processes that volume roughly every 90 minutes. Visa is working with 100+ partners across six continents. Mastercard launched an entire Agent Suite in January with 4,000 advisors. These companies process 3.4 trillion transactions annually and they’re retooling all of it for agents. The real constraint for AI agent payments is liability. When an agent books the wrong flight or buys the wrong size, who eats the cost? Visa’s Ramachandran said it directly: agents are now a fifth party in the dispute chain. Crypto has no dispute chain. No chargebacks. No consumer protection. For a billion agents making mistakes at machine speed, that’s a feature for Coinbase and a problem for the person whose agent just bought 400 economy seats to Mumbai. Coinbase wins the long tail. Agent-to-agent micropayments, DeFi, on-chain operations where no merchant exists. That’s a real market. But “agents can’t use banks” is a 2024 take running on a 2026 timeline where Visa is telling merchants to prepare for AI agent checkout by holiday season. The incumbents aren’t sleeping through this one. They’re spending more, moving faster, and they already have the merchants. Crypto becomes a rail for agents. Visa and Mastercard are betting their entire product roadmap it won’t be the primary one.
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong

Very soon there are going to be more AI agents than humans making transactions. They can’t open a bank account, but they can own a crypto wallet. Think about it.

English
91
53
491
94.7K