DoubleLine Capital

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda joins @BloombergTV to discuss Fed uncertainty, rising energy prices and DoubleLine’s cautious positioning around AI-related credit risk. youtu.be/gQxmKG8bFQI

Oil and gasoline have already revived inflation anxiety. Fertilizer points to a broader risk extending into farm input costs and food production. linkedin.com/pulse/oil-shoc…

Initial jobless claims for the week of March 14th declined 8k to 205k vs. 215k consensus. The 4-week moving average little changed at 211k. Continuing claims increased 10k to 1,857k vs. 1,852 consensus. The data is not indicating an inflection higher in layoffs.

The February producer price inflation data which came in hotter than expected and points to a stronger February core PCE print. Final demand +0.68%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus and +0.5% the previous month. Year-over-year accelerated to 3.39% vs. 3.0% consensus. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, trade) +0.53%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus and +0.4% the previous month. Year-over-year core PPI increased to 3.50% vs. 3.4% consensus.

Private and Public Credit are distinct trades. The landscape has changed, and we urge investors to be highly aware of the marked differences, particularly in a late-cycle credit environment. doubleline.com/markets-insigh…

Industrial production rose slightly more than expected in February, +0.2%MoM vs. +0.1% consensus, bringing the year-over-year pace to 1.4%. Manufacturing, +0.2%MoM vs. +0.1% consensus. Utilities -0.6%MoM, Mining +0.8%MoM. Capacity utilization stable at 76.3%.

Oil’s surge is reverberating across markets: higher gasoline, firmer inflation swaps and a meaningful repricing of the 2026 policy path. The front end of the Treasury curve has adjusted in step, reflecting reduced easing expectations. linkedin.com/pulse/crude-re…

Fed funds futures “have priced in about one rate cut for the year,” per Eric Dhall on March 13. “That number had dropped to no cuts at one point this week. That number is going to be very volatile on developments in the Middle East.”

“Markets are hanging in despite the energy complex,” Ryan Kimmel says. “Seems like a TACO trade on the belief the energy shock will be temporary. If markets start to unhinge, maybe you could see more cuts priced into fed funds futures.” x.com/i/spaces/1PKqr…

For the week ended March 13, @DLineCap's Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel survey down but not (yet) correcting stocks, higher yields across the curve led by the front end on inflation jitters and energy surging amid rumor-fed price swings. x.com/i/spaces/1PKqr…

The delayed second estimate of Q4 GDP showed the economy grew by 0.7%QoQ annualized, much slower than the 1.4% original estimate. Personal consumption revised lower to 2.0% from 2.4%. Investment grew 3.3%, driven by equipment and IP. Government spending was a big detractor, detracting 1.0% during the quarter. Real final sales to domestic purchasers strong at 1.9%.

The headline JOLTS job openings data for January came in above expectations. Job openings rose to 6.95m vs. 6.75m consensus and 6.55m the previous month. This brought the job openings rate to 4.2%. The underlying details showed hiring rates unchanged at 3.3%, but below the 2017-2019 average of 3.8%. The quits rate flat at 2.0%. The labor market continues to exhibit a “low hire low fire” dynamic.

Markets move in cycles—and so does sector leadership. Tech’s S&P 500 dominance has widened the gap versus Energy and Materials, telling a consistent story and what early-2026 rotation may signal for allocators. linkedin.com/pulse/sector-c…

The US trade deficit shrank to $54.5bn in Jan from $72.9bn in Dec. This was lower than consensus expectations of $66bn. Exports increased 5.5% MoM, while overall imports fell 0.7%MoM. The increase in exports came largely from industrial supplies and capital goods (gold, computer and aircrafts) while consumer goods and autos saw a decline. And the imports decline was led by autos and consumer goods as well (pharma). On net, this will be a positive for 1Q GDP.

Hyperscalers have multiplied capex 4x to 8x since 2020 to fund AI infrastructure. Apple’s spending is up only 1.3x. Recent relative performance raises a question: Is the market beginning to favor capital discipline over industrial-scale buildout? linkedin.com/pulse/apple-ca…

The February CPI report came in line with consensus, with headline CPI rising 0.27%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus, and the year-over-year pace unchanged at 2.4%YoY vs. 2.4% consensus. Core CPI rose 0.22%MoM vs. +0.2% consensus;  year-over-year unchanged at 2.5%YoY, in line with consensus and the slowest rate since March 2021.

Risk-pricing of the local currency-denominated debt of major emerging market sovereigns is poised to converge with that of developed market sovereign debt, writes DoubleLine’s Bill Campbell in a new paper. doubleline.com/markets-insigh…

Private credit accounts for ~30% of the $4.1 trillion US leveraged finance mkt: DoubleLine. Many firms conflate illiquidity in private debt for price stability & “DoubleLine believes this is a form of volatility laundering & a misguided marketing campaign” doubleline.com/wp-content/upl…

ISM, Mark Kimbrough notes, flagged higher steel and aluminum prices in February as well as tariffs on imported goods. “Jerome Powell has talked about a goods inflation peak in Q1. Tariffs could escalate at any point and throw a wrench in that.” x.com/i/spaces/1lKQR…