Reason and analytics in Dallas

Michael Avenatti just told me to go f*ck myself.. Yes, this really happened.

Following another wave of Iranian missiles and drones, an industrial building in Beer Sheva, Israel, appears to have been struck and is on fire.

A U.S. Air Force A-10C Thunderbolt II carrying out strikes earlier today on the headquarters of Kata'ib Sayyid ul-Shuhada, also known as the 14th Brigade under Iraq’s Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), in the Ar-Rashidiya neighborhood of Mosul, Northern Iraq.

I confronted a No Kings protestor on the lack of diversity at the protest, she told me she's here because black people can't be.

JUST IN: Democrats in Pennsylvania withdrew a resolution to honor March as national women’s month after a Republican asked them what a woman is You cannot make this up 🤣🤣

Rep. Burlison tells Fox News he’s seen videos of UFOs demonstrating “extremely advanced technology” “If I uncover that we are not alone in this universe — that’s not something for any politician, any Government to withhold from humanity. That is not Top Secret.”

@zerohedge Best news ever

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East zerohedge.com/geopolitical/t…

*PENTAGON PREPARING FOR WEEKS OF GROUND OPS IN IRAN: WAPO

@UAPJames @TheUfoJoe He was on Fox too this afternoon. Didn't see what he said as I was at the gym and it was muted in the locker room but worth probably looking into.

NEW: Congress briefed on UAP on 3/25 “I just did a briefing today in a SCIF with Democrats and Republicans who came because they were all interested in this topic. It is probably one of the most bipartisan topics that’s up here.” — Rep. Burlison

These overflights of U.S. bases have been going on for years and are becoming more commonplace and aggressive. The time for effective action, bringing some to ground if necessary, is long overdue.

The U.S. and Israel are achieving in just a matter of weeks what it took Allies a couple years to do with their strategic bombing campaign against the Nazis in WW2. I'm also confident that the customers of the NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, etc. will not learn of this and other military achievements because it doesn't fit their narrative that we're losing our ineffective military operation against the Islamic regime of Iran. The media is actively misleading the American public. The media also bemoans the massive loss of trust in them as an essential institution in our society. They should take a long look in the mirror when they talk about the causes of the loss of this trust.

$MSFT I may be really aggressive this week with August contracts.

🚨 Breaking – PENDING CONFIRMATION: Ahmad Vahidi, head of IRGC and the most powerful man in Iran, was reportedly eliminated in a targeted strike in Tehran tonight

BREAKING: Happening right now in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the IRGC Aerospace Force is targeting its international airport, disrupting flight operations in the city and causing fear among people. You can see UAE air defense launching what appears to be an MIM-104 surface-to-air missile at one of the incoming Iranian one-way attack drones. #OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

A mass SMS has been sent nationwide in Iran: “Amid threats from the American-Zionist side against Iran’s islands and borders, a nationwide campaign called Janfadahas been launched to recruit volunteers, signaling readiness to defend the country’s territory.” The nationwide distribution of this message suggests that the possibility of a ground conflict is being taken more seriously. It also indicates that Iranian authorities may doubt their ability to match US special forces with conventional military resources and are instead seeking to compensate by calling on ordinary civilians to step into potential front-line roles, if anyone accepts such a call.

A letter, dated 26 March 2026, from the commanding general of Marine Forces Reserve (MARFORRES) and Marine Forces South, Lieutenant General Leonard Anderson IV, to all Marines under his command stresses the importance of being ready to deploy in light of current operations in Iran, going on to say that a mass mobilization could become reality.

Reports of a possible direct impact from an Iranian drone on the U.S. Consulate in Erbil, Northern Iraq, amid a massive one-way drone attack currently underway against Northern and Eastern Iraq by Iran, with explosions being heard in Baghdad and Erbil.

You literally can’t make this up Connecticut Democrats created a meals and beverage tax promising the money would go to the cities and towns It raised over $500 million and NONE of the money was given back to the municipalities where it was collected Democrats stole it all and put it into the general fund “That extra 1% tax has gone back to the general fund since 2019, generating over $500 million. But that wasn't the original intent. The money was supposed to go to the city or town where the tax was generated — It's money that you know is generated inside our local economies, but it's sent straight to the state's general fund. Our towns get nothing”

MUCH earlier than expected… they must have been going full steam. This is the ship from Japan that was carrying the MEU group. It wasn’t expected until mid-week. To achieve this would mean going near max speed and potentially leaving the rest of its group behind to catch up. It’s a significant security gap, that suggests an urgency to use these troops. The Tripoli tops out at 22 knots in perfect conditions, and other ships in its group at 20 knots. So normally the travel speed is 14-18 knots for the group. Putting the time from Japan to the Gulf at 3 weeks. To get there this quick means full push from the Tripoli which means a high value asset was alone for at least some of the journey. That isn’t a risk you take, unless you need to use those units asap.

Saudi Arabia’s crucial East-West pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz is now pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day. The technical milestone is the culmination of the kingdom’s longstanding contingency plan for keeping its oil flowing after the effective closure of their main export route. Flotillas of tankers have been redirected to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to collect the oil, providing an important lifeline for global supply. Crude exports via Yanbu have now reached about 5 million barrels a day and the kingdom is also exporting 700,000 to 900,000 barrels a day of refined products

@Michellewb_ Trump should take Larak Island

While you were sleeping, the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps lined up five vessels, including two India-flagged LPG carriers and one Pakistan-flagged crude tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz via Larak Island. Around 5am they were positioned here (red square) and by lunchtime they had reached Gulf of Oman. This re-routing of traffic via Iran's territorial waters evolved ~2 weeks ago and now between about a dozen ships can be tracked daily (excluding Iranian-flagged ships) via AIS. So far today (I'm posting this around 1620pm London time) I've seen these five ships (all going eastbound) plus another two bulk carriers (one westbound and another eastbound) clearly make the IRGC-controlled transit. There are the usual dark tankers including US-sanctioned Sullana, a VLCC that accidently pinged pretending to be a service vessel sailing westbound plus another Comoros flagged dark fleet tanker with a fake MMSI number that left a telltale blip. In additional to the two COSCO containerships turned back yesterday, I've found another three ships, one of them a bulk carrier signalling "Karachi food for PK", another saying "China owner crew - ex BIK china owner" as well as a livestock carrier. All appear to have been refused transit 24-26/3 and now at anchor, waiting. Why the two containerships were turned away wasn't clear. They were part of the Ocean Alliance which includes France's CMA CGM, perhaps that was why. At 18,000 TEU capacity each, that's a massive marine insurance bill, too. Watching and collating this information daily for @WindwardAI at such a forensic level has shown me how Iran is consolidating control over Hormuz with its selective blockade. Bulk carriers carrying agricultural products to and from Iran have access, as do select Pakistan/India energy commodities cargoes, and of course the dark fleet with oil and gas that is the revenue lifeline for the regime. And there are dark tanker transits by a well-known, baseball cap-wearing Greek shipping billionaire. One of his tankers turned up in India yesterday, another four have gone dark in the Gulf. How he is doing this takes some wily negotiating powers and deep contacts at government and commercial levels to make this happen. Many of the bulk carriers sailing through are also Greece-owned, which brings me to the thorny question of whether or not tolls are being paid for transits. I've seen no primary evidence or direct attribution from people in a position to know, just hearsay and "sources". That's not to say it's happening. A UN Panel of Experts report on Yemen found that the Houthis were also extracting money for safe passage, even when all I ever heard was rumour and innuendo. If there were tolls being paid, that would place those Greece shipowners in a particularly curly position, so perhaps if there are fees, they are being selectively imposed. This is Houthis Red Sea playbook on steroids. Work for an IMO-style safe corridor goes on behind the scenes but in the meantime, the IRGC rules the waves (in the Strait of Hormuz at least).