Drikus Combrinck

“Some things are believed because they are true. But many things are believed simply because they have been asserted repeatedly.” -Thomas Sowell

@JMilei Just another thief then

MAGA! Fin.

The single most insightful person about modernity and enduring truth over the past century is GK Chesterton, a 300+ pound British journalist with bad teeth. He was only right about literally everything.

The Wealthiest people I know are the most sceptical of mainstream financial advice and financial products.

@JohannBiermann1 @JSE_Invest Gold was looking for a reason te sell-off. Gold is a chameleon asset and is just as likely to jump on the next crisis.

@JSE_Invest Have you read the article? I can share it with you if access is a problem.

😂😂

@hazelwood_dave energy and ags....

If gold's role as investment hedge has changed, what's best alternative counter-cyclical instrument? Can't be crypto, though, because that also seems correlated with equity markets.

🔵  "The essential principle of transformationism is displacement of white people and other minorities..." - Piet le Roux (CEO, Sakeliga) at @BizNewsCOM

So either Washington is disengaging from the war in Iran, or it has picked another policy option to open the strait of Hormuz i.e Landing marines.

US market is whistling past the graveyard.

Therapy was invented in the 19th century Confession has existed for over 2,000 years... It's when you examine your conscience, name what you did wrong, receive absolution, and make it right Freud took the structure, removed the resolution, and charged by the hour

It is also a far better scenario for energy (and everything downstream) bulls.

Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Best analogue I can think of for today's market vibe is the period in mid Feb 2020 bf Covid when the news flow was uniformly negative but people weren't selling bc they were bulled up on other themes and were scared of missing the uptrend that was set to resume once Covid faded.

"In the 1970s, energy equities at 25% of the S&P provided a natural portfolio hedge — as oil rose, energy stocks rose with it, partially insulating diversified investors. At 3%, that internal offset has all but vanished." - Carlyle

If you want to be a great portfolio manager, you need to ponder on Grinold’s Fundamental Law of Active Management.

There are two battlefields: 1) the kinetic war against the West, which Islam cannot win; 2) the non-kinetic war against the West, which Islam is winning. Islamic leaders, activists, politicians, and thinkers explained long ago that Islam will defeat the West in three ways: 1) by the womb of their women 2) via hijrah (migration), which the West is keen on helping via their orgiastic open borders policies 3) by using the West's miserable freedoms against us They have screamed this repeatedly but we refuse to listen because of parasitic suicidal empathy.

@BradHuston 30%

We need the stock market to drop 10% for Trump to pivot back to "America First" policies.

This is what happens when your entire schtick is about pumping financial markets as the barometer of Presidential success. It provides an easy, soft underbelly for your opponents to poke at.

@FrancoisHugo24 @SpottySnowLeo Steenkool

To those selling #Sasol : What happens if the Strait does NOT open in the next week? What happens if the chemical cycle benefits those, able to produce throughout? What happens if ZAR weakens further? Institutional positioning is very low $SSL $SOLJ.J

The IEA just announced a 400m bbl SPR release — the largest ever. Counterintuitively, that may actually help oil bulls. Nobody wants $120+ prompt oil. That only benefits front-month futures and leads to extreme backwardation and demand destruction. A supply release cools the front end and supports the long end of the curve, which is what energy equities actually price off.

@CriptoNthusiast In the beginning was the Word?

There are quite a few people on here that know a lot about the Word, yet are so off base on some basic things it's unbelievable. Jesus didn't pre-exist his birth. He wasn't worshipped by O/T saints. He wasn't his Father. Jesus didn't put an end to the First Covenant; it's still in affect. Christians are not the spiritual Israel. Christians are not grafted in to Israel. The New Covenant is only for Israel and Judah. We are the Body of Christ, the Assembly of God. @LostMyHats